Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SNOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ND...ALTHOUGH VIS ARE NOT VERY LIMITED
AND PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE RED RIVER
WITH VIS AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES IN SOME SPOTS. WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH
POPS IN THE EAST BUT SOME CHANCE MENTION IN THE WEST UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BUMP UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH
BUT THINK THAT WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO REACH THE
GROUND...ALTHOUGH VERY VERY LIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE VERY
MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING...BUT WENT WITH
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TRANSITIONING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MODELS AGREE THAT IF ANYTHING
ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES IT WILL BE EAST OF THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...SO INCLUDED A BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN THAT AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN RISING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THIS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS WILL BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED BUT SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST...AND KDVL HAS ALREADY SEEN NORTHWEST WINDS AT
25 GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THEY SHIFT
NORTHWEST. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN NOT FAR BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT...AND CIGS WILL STAY BELOW 3000 FT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO VFR MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE RATHER BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR





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