Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260915
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
DEEPENS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUE AND THEREAFTER.
PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. 700 HPA THETA E
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ADD
ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MON AND MON NIGHT. 700 HPA
THETA-E GRADIENT EXITS THE EASTERN ZONES ON MON AS UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES OVER EASTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP POPS IN EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.
WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. THEN
MOVES OUT THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LOOK FOR A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THEN
00Z ECMWF/GFS STILL INDICATING A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND BEHIND
IT A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR.  CERTAINLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
FALL SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.  HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRI LATE DAY-NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.  LOOKING
PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH THIS WED-SAT PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOSTLY FOCUSED IN NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN.  FRIDAY EVE FOR HALLOWEEN TRICK OR TREATING IS LOOKING
DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL EXPECTING A LITTLE INCREASE IN CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY SOME MID
CLOUD ON SUNDAY. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS IF
IT DOES FORM IT MAY ONLY GRAZE KTVF/KBJI. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IT
MAY END UP AS VIRGA. MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASING S-SE WINDS
DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON




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