Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 110911
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
411 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THEN MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICTED A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST
SD WITH LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MAN WILL DROP
SOUTH TODAY. ALSO A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER
SOUTHWEST MAN AND WILL MOVER THROUGH THIS MORNING. SO LOW POPS OVER
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER BC WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SAT. OTHER SHORT WAVE OVER GULF OF AK WILL MOVE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GFS IS A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE TODAY WITH THERMAL FIELD. TODAY THE
GFS IS IF ANYTHING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. WILL GO A
LITTLE COOLER NORTH FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY, SAT, AND SUN WITH
THERMAL BOUNDARY PLODDING SOUTH. WILL GO WARMER FOR MON MORNING AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A NEARLY ADIABATIC LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PRETTY COLD PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MID WEEK AND AFTER AS THE GEM HAS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A CUT OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECWMF HAS NO CLOSED WAVE AT ALL BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO SHOW SOME
CLUSTERING AROUND THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL VERY HIGH AND NOT MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS.
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED BREAK FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS START INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIGGER SYSTEM
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE AND JUST WENT WITH A
BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK FOR NOW WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. SPEEDS MAY
GET UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES FRI AFTERNOON BUT MODELS
DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. ONLY MENTIONED PCPN
AT KDVL FOR NOW AS IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...GODON




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