Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The visibility at Gwinner has improved since 4 am, and is now much
closer to the visibilities around it. Therefore, still am not
seeing any areas in dense fog, but more in the 1 to 3 mile range.
Still think this will continue through at least mid morning.
Seeing another band of lower clouds moving southward toward the
Canadian border, which is not being handled that well by the
models. Will keep an eye on it, as it may drop into the far
northern FA, but not sure how much further it will get after the
sun rises.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Fog is the main short term forecast challenge. As of early this
morning, the fog was thickest in Sargent County, where Gwinner has
been reporting vsbys less than a quarter mile since about 11 pm.
However, it does seem to be localized around Gwinner as nearby
observation points do not have vsbys quite that low. For that
reason will hold off on a dense fog advisory, unless more points
in that region drop that low as well. Otherwise, fog seems pretty
common south of a line from Gwinner to Fargo North Dakota to
Thief River Falls to Waskish Minnesota, where vsbys generally
range from 2 to 4 miles. With the steady north flow, thinking the
fog will stay in the ranges it is at now, but there could be a few
spots that get lower.

Clear skies have spread into the Devils Lake to Pembina region,
but this area did not pick up much rain yesterday, so fog will
probably be more spotty there. Highs today will depend on how
fast the fog lifts and also how fast the other clouds go away.
Models seem consistent in showing this to be by mid to late
morning, with highs similar to those observed Thursday. Looking
like winds will get down into the 5 to 10 mph range again tonight,
so there may be fog development again. At this point will not add
it to the forecast, but will brief the next shift about the
possibility.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Fairly weak sfc pattern holds over the FA Saturday through Sunday
night. Models still indicate the next chance of pcpn arriving
across the western Devils Lake region late Saturday night, with
spotty chances elsewhere Sunday into Sunday night. None of this
will result in much accumulated precipitation.

A quiet and seasonably mild stretch is in store for much of the
upcoming week. Upper air pattern depicts a well defined split flow
with southern branch showing most of the action as low closes off
vcnty southern plains on Wed and heads toward lower MS valley Thu.
Meanwhile a weak shortwave or two will transit northern plains,
bringing just slght/chc pops in form of overnight wintry mix and
daytime rain. Temps will feature highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s
(the warmest at end of period) with lows near or a shade above
freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The lowest visibilities have improved across the far southern FA,
with the TAF sites also improving. There still may be a little bit
of a decrease again around sunrise, but for the most part the
steady north winds have helped keep the vsbys MVFR and above. The
fog should linger into mid morning before improving more. There
is a band of MVFR clouds moving toward the Canadian border. Not
sure how far these clouds will get after sunrise, so didn`t
mention them in the TAFS. However, if they hold together they may
affect some of the northern TAF sites, like KGFK, KTVF, or KBJI.
Later shifts can adjust if trends are better seen. Otherwise the
models still show the clouds in the foggy areas also lifting by
mid to late morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB/Godon
AVIATION...Godon


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