Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Main challenges will low end pcpn chances and temperatures. Short
wave over SE Sask will drop through the fa today. Some guidance
showing potential for isolated showers mainly over eastern ND however
feature will be riding over surface high pressure and with
precipitable h2o values less than a half inch will keep forecast
dry. Farther NE high resolution model guidance continue to show
pcpn streamers from the MB lakes which could clip the lake of the
woods area so will maintain inherited pops. A fair amount of cloud
cover associated with the Sask wave so temperatures not likely to
recover a great deal.

Return flow and warm advection will hold temperatures up in the
30s most areas tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

As mid level troughing shifts east region comes under more zonal
flow. The next wave and associated surface boundary will track
east across the FA Friday. Best upper support and deeper layered
rh will be across the north so limiting pops to the north seems
reasonable. Thermal ridge axis shifts over the fa during the day
and low level westerly flow may combine with solar to allow
temperatures to recover above average with cooler readings farther

Weak surface ridge builds over the fa Saturday with temperatures
at or above average.

The next wave moves in Saturday night with the best chances for
pcpn again across the far north although models off on timing and
surface low track at this point. Minimum temperatures will be
mild, around 40 most areas.

Sunday-Wednesday...Models indicate a shortwave trough quickly
transiting the area on Sunday with the potential for a few showers,
mainly across the north, before an upper ridge amplifies over the
central US early next week, keeping temps seasonably mild. By Tue-
Wed, 00Z global models indicate a few shortwaves may eject into the
plains from a broad upper trough off the Pacific coast. Current runs
show a fairly progressive and disorganized low pressure trough
crossing the area, but run to run continuity has been poor with
respect to intensity and placement of the system. For now, will
continue to trend towards increasing shower chances by late in the
period, especially across southern/eastern counties, with a
seasonably mild/moist air mass in place ahead of the system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Portions of the western forecast area have cleared out, but more
clouds are coming in from the west. Like most of the ceilings
today, obs over central ND are mostly in the 3500-5000 ft range.
Think that MVFR ceilings will stay to the north around Lake of the
Woods, with the TAF sites remaining VFR although on the lower end
at times. Winds will become light and variable, with some south
winds picking up at KDVL tomorrow evening.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Makowski/Voelker
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.