Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Issued at 638 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Matched current conditions and delayed the increasing clouds and
likely PoPs coming into the southern valley this afternoon. No
other changes with forecast as there is little weather impact
until snow works into the area this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Weather impacts will start out low and increasing with snow moving
into the southern areas late this afternoon. Snow will continue to
spread to the north into the evening and overnight bringing
measurable snow to all but the far northern valley and Devils Lake
basin. Will keep current advisory placement as is with a delayed
start of a few hours as model timing is slower. Impacts from the
system will just be snowfall as winds remain light and blowing or
drifting snow appears minimal.

Surface high pressure continues to move to the east with return
flow across the forecast area to bring temperatures into the 20s
for much of the with a colder mid teens across the Devils Lake
basin. As the next short wave approaches synoptic lift increases
over the northern plains with q-vector divergence aloft and
isentropic saturation and lift across the southeastern two thirds
of the FA. Models bring PWats up to a quarter of an inch as far
north as GFK. Dry easterly fetch from departing SFC high may limit
snowfall efficiency initially. Banding potential remains low as
any frontogenetical forcing appears very transient. Model QPFs
trending to the north and west with this system over the last
couple days seems to have finally stopped and settled in with some
agreement. From valley City to GF to Baudette there should be
around a tenth increasing to a quarter inch from near Wahpeton to
Detroit Lakes to Bemidji with snow ratios in the 16 to 18:1. This
brings around 2 inches to Valley City to Grand Forks to Baudette
with 3 to 5 inches across the southern valley and lakes country of
Minnesota. Snowfall will end from southwest to northeast after

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Some lingering snow may remain in northwest Minnesota Friday morning
as the system moves out of the area. High pressure will settle in
behind this system for the rest of Friday into Saturday. Later in
the day on Saturday snow will return with northwest Minnesota again
having the best chance for accumulation. This is caused by a
Colorado low moving into the upper Midwest. There are still
differences between the models for this event but they generally
agree that the main impact area will be to our south and east. The
ECMWF and NAM take the snow farther north and west than the CMC and
GFS do. The ECMWF and NAM also have higher QPF than the GFS and CMC.
Ensemble forecasts such as GEFS hint at the potential for some
higher totals in Fargo and Park Rapids. The GEFS mean is not far off
from the GFS though so the lower totals more in line with the
deterministic models are currently expected. After this system
passes a quiet week is expected.

As for temperatures, near normal temperatures are expected though
this period for most days. A colder period is expected on Saturday
night with below normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Light winds and SKC through the rest of the morning and into the
afternoon. Then lower CIGs as snow works into all but DVL TAF
sites this evening and will persist for much of the overnight.
MVFR CIGs and VSBYs will be the primary condition with
intermittent IFR CIGs possible at FAR and BJI.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
     tonight for NDZ052-053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Friday for MNZ030-031-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Friday for MNZ024-028-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
     tonight for MNZ029.



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