Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180231

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
931 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Issued at 931 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Winds will stay up tonight, and with another batch of high clouds
moving in, temps will not fall as much as they have been. Current
forecast for tonight still captures these trends well.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Another sunny afternoon to give way to another quiet evening and
overnight. South winds stay up some overnight keeping min temps
seasonally warm towards morning with values 45 to 50F. A strong
short wave and low pressure system will pass well north of the
forecast pushing through a dry cool front Wednesday morning. Winds
in its wake winds across the Devils Lake basin and into the
northern valley will become 25 to 35 with gusts to 45mph. As a
result have issued a wind advisory for tomorrow. Fire weather
concerns or impacts are explained below. Max temps tomorrow will
be cooler but still above seasonal normals with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Diminishing winds Wed night in wake of earlier cold fropa as high
pressure builds into central plains. Thu would feature sunny warm
and dry conditions once again with a hint of southerly return flow
by afternoon. Guidance is pretty consistent in keeping a dry
forecast through the end of the week with the next system entering
the picture on Sat. Another cold front would swing through during
the first part of the day but as before, the bulk of any
precipitation is likely to remain southeast of the region as lee
side cyclogenesis occurs over the central CONUS. Very low CAPE
values preclude thunder mention at this time. Another quick moving
short wave increases POP chances for Mon.

Zonal flow and the preponderance of westerly surface winds will keep
temps well above normal for Thu and Fri. Look for temps 15 to 20
degrees above average Thu and Fri with daytime highs in the 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Easing back toward normal over
the weekend, with highs in the 50s early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Biggest aviation challenge will be wind speeds. The gusts are
already diminishing for today, but the low level jet will remain
overnight. This will result in low level wind shear, so have
mentioned that at all the TAF sites. Wind speeds will increase
again on Wednesday morning, and become quite gusty by late morning
through the afternoon, especially at KDVL.


Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop Wednesday
behind a cold front as strong winds and low relative humidities
values create a potentially dangerous fire weather set up. Westerly
winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are possible across the
Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley. Afternoon relative
humidities will drop to around 20 percent as the airmass dries
out. As such a fire weather watch will be in effect along and
north of the I94 in ND to HWY 200 corridor in MN. To the south
lesser winds will reduce the threat of critical conditions.


ND...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006-007-014-

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ008-016-

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022-023.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ004-007.



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