Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140055
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
655 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

High clouds will increase from the NW this evening. Temps dropping
fast east of the RRV so lowered some and may need to lower some
more as a few sites are near 20 below nr Bemidji. Winds calm in
the far east but south winds 8-9 kts RRV and E ND. A period of
wind chills in adv range in the nrn RRV but temps will rise
overnight. Based on prev collaboration no adv issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Generally fair skies and light southerly winds are left after a
bitterly cold Arctic airmass has passed through the area.
Southerly winds and subtle boundary layer warming will continue
throughout the later afternoon and evening hours... as a warm
front edges into the area aloft. Expect clouds to increase from
the west through the late evening into the overnight hours.

On Sunday... expect southerly winds through the forenoon with
areas of light snow developing from late forenoon into the
afternoon. A cold front should sweep in from the north through the
early afternoon... bringing gusty northwest winds and steadily
cooling temperatures... and producing patchy blowing and drifting
snow across most of the area. New snowfall accumulation could
approach from 1-2 inches across portions of northwest through
northcentral MN... with trace snowfall amounts expected in
eastern ND.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

For Sunday night through Tuesday, frigid weather and dangerous wind
chills commence as an Arctic airmass moves from the Northwest
Territories to the Dakotas. This dry airmass yields potent surface
high pressure, near max values in the NAEFS and GEFS reanalysis
data. Despite sunshine on Monday, 850 mb temps in the mid -20s over
MN and breezy north winds at the surface will barely allow
temperatures to rise during the daytime hours. This combination of
factors will yield persistent wind chills in the 30s to 50s below
zero from early Monday through early Tuesday. Through this period, a
high amplitude ridge in the West will filter in drier air and thus
dry weather, but breezy conditions may result in occasional patchy
blowing snow, especially for the Red River valley where snow may not
yet be crusted.

Starting Tuesday, the recent roller coaster of temperatures begins
another ascent, as return flow develops and the previously mentioned
ridge aloft weakens and progresses into the Plains. By Wednesday,
daytime highs will reach the teens to 20s above zero, with
increasing warmth each day toward the end of the week. By Friday,
daytime highs will be hovering around the freezing mark, with the
next precipitation chances on the horizon heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

High clouds to increase tonight, followed by mid and then some low
end VFR/MVFR clouds late tonight into Sunday with approaching
front. Front to move southeast and look for some gusty NW Winds
behind it. A period of snow as well nrn RRV into NW MN timing of
which is morning in NE ND and midday/early aftn in NW MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Riddle


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