Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 201600
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES THAT GO UNTIL NOON FOR MOST OF
THE FA. COMING IN AT 8 AM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
USE WIND SHIELD WIPERS. CURRENTLY IT SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A MIST.
MADE CALLS TO SEVERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT CENTERS WHO SAID CONDITIONS
WERE NOT TOO BAD...ONE MENTIONED MIST TOO AND ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN
SLIPPERY FOR A FEW DAYS. SINCE ADVISORY ONLY GOES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO LET IT GO UNTIL THEN.

ANOTHER THIN BAND OF ECHOES IS APPROACHING THE KBIS/KMOT AREAS AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD OUR FA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. AT
THE MOMENT IT APPEARS VERY THIN AND IS MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO
MAY BE ABLE TO DELAY ITS ONSET INTO OUR WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FA AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. VSBY MAY IMPROVE IN SPOTS BUT OVERALL KEPT CIGS AT LEAST
IN IFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





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