000
FXUS63 KFGF 071300
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 45 BELOW
ZERO RANGE THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL WARNING GOING THIS
MORNING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

MODELS WERE SIMILAR THE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT 84 HOURS. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...THE NAM WAS THE SLOW SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF WAS FAST AND THE GFS A COMPROMISE. WILL PREFER THE FASTER
ECMWF.

EAST-WEST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND WERE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. MODELS APPEAR TO
BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH RH FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
IA/MN ON SUN AND SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. A THIRD SHORT WAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT. ALL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL KEEP WIND CHILL WARNING GOING THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX NEAR HUDSON BAY. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.  ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE AFTN-WED...THEN A BIT
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THU NIGHT-FRI.  EACH ONE WILL
GIVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED AN AREA OF CIGS 28 TO 35 HUNDRED FT
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND AND WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15
KNOTS. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CIGS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FT WAS LOCATED
OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS CLEAR.
EXPECT THE PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TODAY.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TOWARD SUN MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-024-
     032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES