000
FXUS63 KFGF 201158
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Radar indicated weak returns over parts of eastern MT and southern
ND. Most of the precip was not reaching the ground. Stronger
returns were over northern SD. Some mid level moisture and mid
level convergence was creating the precip. Precip will move across
the southern zones today. Will keep low pops in the far south for
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Upper level trough was over MAN with an upper level jet on
the southern periphery. Upper level trough will move into
Ontario by Mon morning.

Surface front extended from between HCO and ROX to near
Gwinner ND. Front will shift east of the area by mid morning.

Another upper level trough over the Yukon will rotate into the
Northern Plains late Mon and send a back door cold front into the
area on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the mid to late week period... the H5 flow continues to amplify
through the mid to late week period resulting in a building H5 ridge
over the northern plains from Wednesday into Thursday providing
generally fair skies and a drier northerly blayer flow on Wednesday
which turns light from the south on Thursday. Then expect a fairly
aggressive H5 shortwave trof digging into the Northern Plains on
Friday and Saturday. This will establish a deeper southerly flow
aloft throughout the plains states and promote one or two rounds of
strong convection across the area. The GFS remains the wetter model
and produces strong storms transiting the area both Friday and
Saturday. Model consensus has Sunday as a bit of a cleanup day...
with a slightly drier northwest flow over the area as the next H5
shortwave ridge approaches aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions were across the area. However satellite and surface
obs indicated cigs around 16 hundred ft were located over eastern
Beltrami county. Another small patch of clouds was located north
of FSE. Clouds were moving to the east at 20-25 knots. Elsewhere
high clouds above 13 thousand ft were moving into the southwest
zones. Expect VFR conditions for today and tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...JH