Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
619 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Issued at 619 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Losing some of the wind gusts, but sustained winds should stay up
tonight. That, along with a good amount of clouds, will help to
keep temperatures from dropping too far. Not confident about the
light snow chances over west central Minnesota later tonight, so
will see what some of the new model guidance comes in with. No
changes planned at this point though.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tonight will see a 500 mb short wave drop southeast from
Saskatchewan and into the RRV and nrn MN by morning. Some mid
level moisture with this system and enough to cause a little light
snow primarily just nr or just north of Lake of the Woods. Short
range models and ensembles to develop a little light precip (snow)
as well in west central MN and this has been consistent over the
past 12 hours. So have lower end chc pops for -sn mainly 05z-11z
for this. Otherwise temps will not drop too much tonight but
toward Sat morning winds will turn northwest and there is pretty
good cold advection in the 925-850 mb layer. So temps Saturday
during the day will not rise too much.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

On late Saturday night through Sunday early afternoon, a strong
shortwave will bring potential for significant travel impacts to
portions of the area. This shortwave will be associated strong
forcing as it coincides with surface troughing and the right
entrance region of a strong upper jet streak...a jet streak that is
strong enough to fall outside the NAEFS 30-year climatology. While
the operational deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on
a swath of a quarter to a third inch of QPF, the operational GFS is
on the low side of GEFS QPF guidance. Additionally both the NAM and
GFS indicate higher potential for moderate frontogenetical forcing
in the 700-850mb layer, coinciding with moderate to strong Q vector
convergence, and perhaps negative saturated EPV. Model agreement in
these ingredients likely favors a snow banding scenario, with a
heavy band of 3-6" likely and 6+" possible in the heaviest part. It
is too soon to predict where precisely this band will set up, but at
this point, it looks more likely for areas generally south of
Highway 2. Additionally, isothermal profiles for areas south of
Interstate 94 suggest potential for a period of light freezing

Snow will taper off Sunday afternoon, but as winds swing north
behind the surface trough, they will strengthen as well. Lower
confidence in winds based on significant spread in GEFS plumes, so
at this point, will leave it at saying there is potential for gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph, resulting in blowing snow concerns Sunday
afternoon and night.

Late Sunday night through Tuesday, the primary surface low tracks
through the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes. There is still
considerable uncertainty as to the track of this system, but it does
have the potential to bring another inch or two of additional
snowfall to the southern half of the forecast area. For Tuesday
night through Wednesday night, colder and drier air moves in with
surface high pressure.

Temperatures cool down considerably from Saturday into early in the
work week, with highs in the single digits to lower teens above zero
for Monday and Tuesday. By late in the week, temperatures closer to
seasonal averages are expected as the upper longwave trough swings
through and zonal flow moderates temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Latest model guidance keeps all ceilings in the mid and high level
range. So the TAFs are mainly dealing with shifting wind




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