Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Upper level trough over Ontario will move southeast and drop drier
air to our east. Upper level low over NV/UT will move into eastern
ND by 12Z Sun and over western Ontario by 12z Mon. 150+m height
falls are forecast when system moves through the forecast area.
Upper low takes on some negative tilt. Also upper low opens up after
passing the area. Upper level jet segments remain on the east and
west sides of the trough through the period.

Upper level trough off the Canada west coast will move into central
Canada by the end of the period. High amplitude trough will extend
from the desert southwest to the Northern Plains to central Canada
by 12Z Sun. Then the northern portion of the trough will shear off
by 12Z Mon. Upper level jet forecast to dig on the west side of the
trough Sun night.

Precipitable water rises to over 1.5 inches Fri afternoon and again
Sat afternoon. A pocket of lower precipitable water will move
through Sat morning and again on Sun morning. Dry slot moves into
the area Sun morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The forecast for Monday to Thursday remains one on the low side of
confidence with uncertainties on how the weekend upper level low
over the northern plains evolves. The 00z EC continues to be faster
with its northeastward progression of the wave on Monday. Whereas
the 00z Canadian/GFS and GEFS all slow down the system and pinwheel
over the Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. As a result
temps fields are much cooler with the latter solns under the
cyclonic flow aloft where there would continue to be more clouds and
shower chances compared to the warmer drier EC soln. Will maintain
some chance PoPs on Monday and monday night in the east with a dry
forecast for the rest of the work week and temps will gradually warm
from around 60 on Monday to near 70 for Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Lowering VFR cigs still anticipated across the SW half of the fa
overnight into tomorrow. MVFR cigs will be more prevalent across
the same area by tomorrow evening with the NE half remaining VFR.
Pcpn chances still look somewhat spotty until tomorrow afternoon
and evening when rain possibly T should increase in coverage.




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