Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 241839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CU FIELD A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR NE SO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED FROM NW-S CENTRAL ND. -SN LINES UP WELL WITH BAND
OF ENHANCED CU FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ZONE OF 850 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE KEEPS ASSOCIATED
FORCING WEST OF THE FA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED DRY
FORECAST. ANY OTHER CHANGES VERY MINOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONGEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FA LINING UP WELL
IN ZONE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FROM MSAS. THESE FEATURES PROGRESSIVE SO WHILE STRONGER
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN BLUSTERY UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH. DECENT CLEARING IN WAKE OF COLD PUSH HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SC
DEVELOPMENT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.