Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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678
FXUS63 KFGF 180547
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Got reports that Manitoba had some freezing rain as that precip
was dropping south, and that seems to fit radar returns across our
northern counties although surface reports are still rather
sparse. Models have colder air coming in and reducing the warm
layer aloft, so think there will be some snow mixing in as the
precip moves southeast. The precip is light and fast moving, so
think any icing or snow accumulation will be very light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Tonights forecast challenge will be the chance for freezing
rain/drizzle changing over to light snow between midnight and 6am
along and north of highway 2. Roads may be slippery in spots
tomorrow morning as a result of the freezing precipitation. Highs
tomorrow look to stay mild with most of the region reaching 30
degrees. Any morning slippery spots should melt into tomorrow
afternoon with the mild temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Minor impacts are expected for parts of the weekend and early next
week, mainly associated several chances for precipitation moving
through.

For Friday, there is a small chance for light freezing drizzle or
rain, mainly for the northern half of the area. A weak front and
upper jet streak move eastward through but may struggle to overcome
drier and warm mid levels in order to saturate. Liquid precipitation
is a bit unusual for January, but confidence is high in above
average temperatures occurring. 850mb temperatures fall outside of
NAEFS and GEFS climatology for this time of year under a strong
upper ridge moving through. This is expected bring high temperatures
in the 30s and perhaps even lower 40s on Friday. Friday is expected
to be the warmest day in this stretch, but southerwesterlies aloft
and west winds at the surface will yield mild weather persisting
through at least Saturday.

For Saturday night through Monday, the next chance for precipitation
returns as a Colorado Low moves through the Plains. At this time,
there is decent model agreement in the cyclone track. The latest
track suggests snow chances with light QPF for the forecast area,
with the greatest impacts being further south and east in the
Central Plains. However any change in the track could considerably
change impacts for the Northern Plains, so will continue to monitor
as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

All sites are VFR. Clouds moving into the northern forecast area
out of Canada have been mostly mid level although a few spots
upstream are MVFR. Will keep all TAF sites VFR although KTVF could
see a period with ceilings near 3000 ft. West wind at near 15 kts
will decrease and shift around to the south by the end of the
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon/Pederson
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JR



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