000
FXUS63 KFGF 200431
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous snow showers this evening, mainly along
  and east of the Red River. Brief reductions to below 1 mile
  visibility at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Water vapor loop continues to show several vorts rotating around
the upper low over Ontario, with one moving through northwestern
MN currently and likely helping with our current round of snow
showers in that area. Another weak shortwave/vort max is still
upstream in southern Manitoba. With continued forcing and some
weak instability, see little reason for the snow shower activity
to go away anytime before sunset. Snow squall parameter is
pretty high during the 21Z time period according to some model
solutions, although most of our activity has all been cellular
in nature so far so will continue to handle the impacts with
SPS. Snow shower activity should taper off quickly between 03
and 06Z as we lose the weak instability and the weak shortwave
moves further down into the Plains.

Saturday should see some diminishing winds as surface high
pressure builds in and upper ridging brings a slight warming
trend. Warming will continue into Sunday and afternoon RH values
in a few spots in northwestern MN could get close to 25 percent,
which could cause fire weather issues in the drought stricken
portions of that state. However, Winds will be out of the west
at around 10 mph and are not expected to cause problems.

An upper trough coming out into the Northern Plains on Monday
and then pushing into the Great Lakes on Tuesday is expected to
bring some light precipitation to most of the region for the
first part of the work week. This time temperature profiles look
to be staying favorable for rain. R and M climate percentiles
do not show a particularly strong wet signal, and probabilities
for more than a quarter of an inch of rain are less than 10
percent. After a bit of a break Wednesday and Thursday, there
are signs of another system for late week but predictability is
even lower for that system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR conditions prevail across much of the area tonight, with
VFR CIGs expected to develop at KDVL, KFAR and KGFK. For KBJI
and KTVF, low clouds could keep MVFR ceilings in place through
around mid morning Saturday. Isolated snow showers continue to
diminish across the area. All sites should see VFR conditions by
midday Saturday as skies clear from west to east. Winds become
westerly by Saturday afternoon, with wind speeds generally in
the 10 to 15 knot range through much of the day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch