Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Upper low and short wave trough moving thru NE ND into southern
Manitoba. Ahead of short wave trough area of lift combined with an
axis of 850 mb instability a narrow area of t-storms formed nr
fargo and has now moved just east of the fcst area. One lone storm
was near cando to langdon and moving northeast. For the overnight
most areas will be dry. Clearing area into E ND and the RRV in dry
slot behind the 500 mb short wave trough. Issue is low cloud
possibilities streaming north-northeast from southwestern MN and
eastern SD. Still looks like some stratocu will spread into MN
lakes country and Bemidji areas. I did blend with neighboring
offices to include areas of fog in this more moist axis Fergus
Falls to Bemidji areas.

UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Tweeked mention of t-storm area the next few hours. Good news is
that the storms in NW MN will clear out of Bemidji area by 06z.
Isold storm still holding on west of DVL (from Minot area
earlier). To better blend with MPX and DLH I did add some areas of
fog to SE fcst area BJI-FFM areas east. Have noticed that surge of
low level moisture moving NNE 60 dew pt in Aberdeen to Marshall MN


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through overnight)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Forecast impacts this evening and into the overnight will continue
to be strong SE winds and showers with embedded thunder possibly.
Strong WAA continues to provide broad scale lift and as a
result intermittent light rain continues to slowly lift to the
northeast mainly north of across the FA. SFC trough is pushing
into the western Dakotas early this afternoon. Ahead of the trough
a narrow axis of instability, most unstable CAPE in the 500 to
1000j/kg range, will continue to nose northward into central
North Dakota. Will add a chance of thunder along this axis as
models continue to trend towards convective development in the
late afternoon across the western portions of the FA and quickly
move the broken line to the east this evening. Deeper moisture
east of the valley will allow coverage of the precipitation
coverage to expand across the trees and lakes country. Another
warm overnight expected as temperatures remain in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Monday...Shower potential and QPF will be the main concerns as the
next upper wave ejecting from the west coast spreads synoptic
forcing across the region. Guidance is in decent agreement with
timing and location of this feature...along with mid-level
frontogenesis. Given the anticipated forcing mechanisms expect
banded showers across southeast North Dakota and west central
Minnesota...with most locations receiving 0.10 to 0.20 inches of
rainfall and isolated heavier amounts (up to an inch) where stronger
precip bands set up.

Tuesday-Sunday...Northwest flow aloft develops by mid-week...with
multiple quick moving upper waves affecting the region. For the most
part have a dry forecast given predictability of these events is
quite impacts would be very low.  Cold front swings
through on Tuesday...leaving the region in near normal


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Main issue is Bemidji TAF site as potential still there for
lowering clouds into the MVFR range. Though short range models
have backed off on idea of IFR cigs. Otherwise VFR as a bit drier
west-southwest flow moves in overnight. The MVFR cigs should exit
Bemidji area mid Monday morning. Went with some light fog at
Bemidji but otherwise none expected. Winds southerly Bemidji
before turning west-southwest...while winds west-southwest other
areas into Monday 5 to 15 kts.




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