Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 061844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Issued at 1244 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Adjusted precipitation chances for this afternoon to account for
drier mid and lower level air moving in. Snow showers with
measurable precipitation will move out of west central MN early
this afternoon, with clouds scattering and lifting from northwest
to southeast across the area. Cancelled part of the Winter Weather
Advisory to reflect this, but left part of the advisory in tact as
strong northwest gusts up to 40 mph will continue through much of
the afternoon and continue to cause blowing and drifting snow.

UPDATE Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Increased precipitation chances for rest of morning and early
afternoon. Models are struggling to account for scattered snow
showers and flurries, but suspect precipitation will gradually
diminish through the day. In the mean time, have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory until this evening to account for reduced
visibilities, occasionally dropping to less than a mile. These
reduced visibilities, combined with icy and snow covered roads and
blowing snow, will cause travel difficulties at times throughout
the day today.

UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Made some tweaks to cloud cover and moved snow shower/flurry
mention a bit further west as we are getting some reports in the
northern Red River Valley.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

What happens with very light precip chances today will be the main
issue for the period.

Water vapor loop continues to show the main upper low rotating
over northeast Ontario, and a fairly vigorous vort max/shortwave
digging down the backside of the trough through Manitoba. This
shortwave will provide some lift and bring some snow showers to
the eastern counties today. Amounts will be very very light, but
think there will be enough of a chance to include a scattered snow
shower mention. Low pressure to the northeast and a high to the
west will continue to bring a decent gradient, 925mb winds will be
30 to 35 kts and there should be good mixing. We should stay below
advisory criteria but think there will be enough wind for drifting
and maybe some blowing of snow. Kept a mention going, but limited
it to the central and northeastern CWA that received the most snow
and kept it out of the south and northwest were there isn`t much
snow depth. Temps will remain in the teens.

Tonight, clouds will start to clear out as the shortwave moves
south and winds aloft turn northerly. Think that the northeastern
counties with fresh snow will see temps drop below zero even with
winds still around 10 mph. The western counties will see a bit
more westerly winds and weak warm air advection so should stay in
the positive numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Thursday...Warm air advection with westerly winds kick in and
should allow highs to get into the 20s across the ND side but the
eastern counties will stay in the teens. Another weak shortwave
will bring a chance for light snow again to the east.

Friday through Wednesday...NW flow pattern with a highly
amplified ridge over the PAC NW and BC at 18Z Friday. Ridge
remains fairly stationary and begins flattening out Sat night into
Sun as a ridge rider moves across northern BC. This SWT drops
into the northern tier Sun night. Blended solution generally
giving low POPs for Sun evening, mainly across the north. The
Canadian west coast ridge then re- amplifies and dominates the
upper pattern through Day 7, when a stronger wave helps break it
down. The NW flow patter will remain in place from Sun-Wed with a
stronger SWT moving across the region Wed, bringing higher chances
for snow to the region. Daytime highs generally in the teens and
20s with a brief warmup with the Sunday wave...and highs climbing
into the 30s. Overall threat for any significant winter storm in
the long term period is low.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Scattered MVFR and IFR cigs and vsbys for northwest and west
central MN this afternoon, especially along and southeast of a
TVF-CKN-FAR line, as scattered flurries combine with northwest wind
gusts to 30 kts. Outside of flurries/snow showers, occasional
reduced visibility is possible as a result of blowing and drifting
snow. Cigs will lift and scatter this afternoon and evening from
northwest to southeast, gradually improving to VFR.


MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001-



LONG TERM...JR/Speicher
AVIATION...BP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.