Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222014
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Main impacts will be tonight with thunderstorms and extent of
severe potential and (heavy rain?). Would like to see better
agreement between the high resolution short range models
concerning where convection will initiate and timing so there is
some degree of uncertainty on evolution.

Boundary currently oriented from between ISN/MOT ssw to the Black
Hills. Favored instability/cape/shear also in this area so would
appear this would be the favored area for initiation. Short wave
providing upper support moving into s Wyo so may take some time
for things to get going up here. Convection will then propagate
eastward during the evening. With a 40-50kt low level jet
storms should hold together overnight. Current thinking is
convection will reach DVL basin mid evening...northern valley
around midnight and southern valley during the early am.
Convective parameters sufficient for a few severe storms.
Precipitable h20 values between 1-1.5 inches and with boundary
roughly parallel to the flow could see some potential for heavy
rain. Antecedent conditions quite dry and some uncertainty as to
where heavier rain band will set up to pin point threat area.
National guidance current favors the sw portion of the forecast
area.

Convection will continue to propagate east across Mn on Monday.
Boundary should be far enough east that stronger storms during the
afternoon will be east of the forecast area. Temperatures will
hinge on cloud cover but column does not cool much behind boundary
so highs from 75 to 80 certainly possible with any solar.

Rain should move out of the east during the early evening with
most areas generally dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Unsettled weather will continue into midweek as region remains in
sw flow aloft. Trying to time weak impulses lifting through the
flow interacting with weak surface boundaries will be difficult
so have general low range pops with uncertainty. Temperatures
should continue above average.

Wednesday Night-Sunday...While the various global models do show
some day to day differences with the placement of various upper
level shortwave troughs, a rather active southwesterly split flow
pattern is forecast to continue through next weekend over the region,
with periodic chances for showers and storms. Temps look to remain
seasonable through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

South winds will gust up to 30 kts this afternoon with increasing
mainly lower VFR clouds, although some ceilings may be MVFR at
times, especially at KDVL. Any showers should be isolated today.
Better chances for showers and storms tonight, with the highest
chances at KDVL during the early to mid evening, late evening into
early morning at KFAR/KGFK/KTVF and then late night at KBJI. Some
ceilings down at or below MVFR thresholds possible tonight before
sites trend VFR on Monday with winds becoming westerly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Red Flag Warning continues for eastern three counties of Lake of the
Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard... through 7 pm CDT. Low relative
humidities and strong southerly winds in these locations will see
some abatement as cloud cover and moistening airmass moves in from
the west. Otherwise numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the area later this evening and overnight... moving into
northcentral MN by early Monday morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ006-009-017-
     024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Makowski/Voelker
AVIATION...Makowski


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