Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 111428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
928 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Issued at 928 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Fairly quiet today with only a few cirrus clouds crossing the Red
River Valley. Tweaked cloud cover a bit, but impacts are minimal
and think we should still get into the 50s and lower 60s this
afternoon. Bumped up winds a tad more with good mixing as we are
already starting to get gusty over the Devils Lake area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Impacts confined to winds as a quiet weather pattern continues
today. The dry SFC high pressure which brought the freezing
temperatures to the area yesterday morning has shifted to the
east over the northern Great Lakes this morning. To our west broad
lee side SFC troughing will develop under 500mb southwest flow
aloft. The pressure gradient between these SFC features will
increase over the FA which will bring breezy south to southeast
winds today, 15 to 25 mph with gust to 35mph, highest in the
northern valley. These winds are not as favorable for warming as
yesterday so going a touch cooler across the area for highs today,
around 60. These south winds will steadily advect higher moisture
to the region with models indicating the potential to bring the
stratus deck of clouds currently in Iowa north into the eastern
zones this evening and into the overnight. As a result
temperatures overnight will be 5 or so degrees warmer under the
clouds than those to the west, mid 40s verses around 40 in E ND

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Dry weather will continue for the remainder of the work week.
Near normal temperatures today and Friday with warmer temperatures
on Wednesday night into Thursday.

The weekend will bring cooler weather and the next chance for
precipitation. The southwesterly flow aloft from the work week will
transition to an upper trough. Model guidance has come into
better agreement over the last few runs so confidence in this
forecast is increasing. This system will bring some colder air in
with it giving the chance of rain snow mix Saturday night.

Monday through Wednesday ridging aloft will lead a return to dry
weather and slightly above average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

After some BR at BJI this morning aviation concerns will be
centered on strong south winds today with gusts in the 20 to 30kt
range centered over the valley this afternoon. BJI may see a MVFR
stratus deck towards evening into the overnight. Some haze also
possible given the dust lofted by ongoing harvest.




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