Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182022
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Forecast challenges will be about the same as they were yesterday
at this time...clouds, pcpn chances, and winds. The low clouds
have finally been lifting, but remain in the central and northern
Red River Valley north of Fargo. Meanwhile, a band of mid level
clouds have moved into eastern North Dakota, and these will
continue to shift into northwest Minnesota this evening. Behind
these mid level clouds, there is less cloud cover again. The 00Z
models had shown a band of light pcpn developing from Jamestown
to Bemidji in the Sunday afternoon time frame, but the 12Z runs
came in even weaker with this.

For that reason have left any mention of precipitation on Sunday
out of the forecast. Finally, there is strong warm advection
tonight, which will set up an inversion. Models show a pretty
decent low level jet, but with the inversion, it will mainly be
an aviation concern. Surface winds still should become fairly
windy, especially in the northern Red River Valley between
midnight and sunrise Sunday. Following this, wind speeds should
decrease somewhat on Sunday, with much warmer temperatures
expected. It will stay quite a bit cooler though for areas with
deeper snow cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

A cold front will be moving through the area late Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. Weak high pressure will be in place on Monday
with another shot of cold air moving into the area late Monday and
Monday night. A ~1040 mb high will drift southeast across southern
MB on Tuesday making for a cool but sunny Tuesday with highs in the
mid 20s north to mid 30s south. A weak wave will ride the building
upper ridge on Wednesday. And this, combined with warm air advection
in the mid levels may bring in some rain/snow Wednesday night.

The pattern looks rather unsettled for the rest of the week and into
the weekend with low pressure systems moving east across the states.
There is a significant difference in the track of an upper low
moving across the Central Plains on Thursday night and Friday.
Still, models indicate that precipitation, possibly mixed, will be
possible Thu/Fri. Temperatures look to be above average for the
latter part of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Definitely a challenging aviation forecast, mainly due the low
clouds this morning. Speaking of these low clouds, they are
finally beginning to break up from the east and south. Therefore,
expect these to break up first at KBJI and KFAR, but it will take
longer at KGFK and KTVF. Think this will occur over the next few
hours, but will adjust if this does not work out. Otherwise mid
level clouds will continue to spread into the FA too. Light winds
now will become SE and increase through the day, becoming fairly
gusty overnight. Along with the increase in winds overnight, there
is a fairly strong low level jet. There will also be strong warm
advection tonight, so not expecting these strong winds to mix
down to the surface, but it should create a favorable environment
for low level wind shear. Threw in LLWS for all TAF sites
overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Godon



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