Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Issued at 928 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Forecast in overall good shape with a burst of snow ongoing in the
far west from Devils Lake to Cando sliding to the southwest.
Another band of precipitation, mainly light rain or drizzle, is
stretched from Lake of the Woods to Bemidji back to the southwest
through Thief River Falls and Crookston into the Fargo area.
Temperature profiles continue to show liquid precipitation for all
but the far west where snow is the dominant ptype.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Morning update focuses on precip coverage. Receiving reports of
precip at Baudette and Bemidji where radar is showing no returns
so have forced 88D into higher power mode to improve return
coverage. In general, HRRR has the best handle on current trends
this morning although struggling with band over west central MN.
Have adjust POPs with blend of HRRR and prev forecast...keeping
most of w central MN dry or low POPS thorugh mid morning. Surface
low beginning to move into w central MN and should begin to pull
cooler air over central ND into the Devils Lake basin, changing
rain to a rain-snow mix. No changes for timing of transition over
to snow east of Devils Lake.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The forecast challenge for the short term period continues to be
precipitation type, rainfall/snowfall amount and temperatures. The
majority of eastern North Dakota into the Red River Valley is
ranging from 34 to 36 degrees...with temps around the 40 mark in
the northern valley. The latest surface obs indicate the surface
low in the vicinity of Wahpeton with trough extending through
Otter Tail county and into Crow Wing county MN. The low has begun
to gradually drift to the east and should take a southeast
trajectory to near Alexandria by mid afternoon...although the NAM
is a bit further to the northeast with the upper vort over
northeastern ND. Warm air advection from the NE has brought
surface temps across Devils Lake into the mid 30s and precip
changed over to snow last evening, with most recent web cams
showing at least some melting of the snow they received yesterday
morning. Snow is being reported at Valley City with rain likely
now at Cooperstown...and the rain-snow line appearing to be along
a line from Valley City possibly into the Rugby area. The main
batch of precip moving northeast out of northeastern ND is moving
into the Griggs/Eddy/Nelson county region and is rain or a
rain/snow mix.

As the surface low begins to accelerate east, precip over central
ND as well as a slightly cooler near surface layer will help
change rain back over to snow in the far western regions into
portions of southeastern ND, but the southeast will quickly return
to rain while a wintry mix is not expected to move into the valley
until near sunset. This slow transition will limit the best
snowfall accumulations once again to about the Highway 281
corridor and west, where a second round of 1 to 3 inches is
possible by 00Z Wednesday. As the surface low pulls east, the
tighter pressure gradient over central ND as well as stronger cold
advection into the low pull cause some gustier winds but snow will
be wet enough that blowing/drifting snow will not be an issue. The
surface low moves into northwestern WI by 12Z Wednesday. Most
regions will receive up to one quarter of an inch of rainfall
with higher amounts across the south and west. Only minor
accumulations are expected west of a Devils Lake to Valley City
line by morning as surface temperatures stay in the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Models are indicating a shallow saturated level being overrun by
dry air aloft Wednesday afternoon. The GFS keeps the top of the
saturated level near the ice crystallization level, however
blended solutions dry that layer out. Light snow is expected to
continue through noon Wednesday, with only minor accumulations,
however if the lower layers of the atmosphere do not dry out and
end precip, there is a chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle
expanding north to south during the afternoon hours. Only minor
accumulations of ice are possible...mainly on untreated roads
however the warm road temperatures will make accumulation
difficult. Grids indicate drizzle or light snow with some
uncertainty in the depth of the shallow saturated layer.

Lingering isolated snow showers will continue into Thursday
morning with thinning clouds during the afternoon hours, however
temps are expected to stay around freezing throughout the day. A
much colder and drier air mass will move over the area Thursday
night and temps may fall into the mid 20s, however with cloud
cover expected much of the night...model guidance may be a bit too

Friday through Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will be in control on Friday with the ridge
axis over the Devils Lake basin...with light winds and high temps on
Friday in the upper 20s.

By Saturday...high pressure retreats toward the Ohio valley and will
see return flow across the region ahead of the next system. A trof
of low pressure will cross the area on Sunday...but limited moisture
will result in some light snow with little accumulation expected.

Otherwise...a more organized system looks to develop by late Monday.
Southerly winds should become a bit breezy with a tightening
pressure gradient...and temperatures will be slightly warmer. Some
precipitation should occur right at the end of the forecast
period...with mainly light snow in the north and possibly a mix in
the south.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Complex aviation forecast this morning as FAR has gone to VFR with
all other sites remaining IFR. Vicinity of surface low now over
tri-state border area (Wheaton SD) will see widely varying cigs
until low pulls further east, at which time FAR should go IFR for
remainder of day. This should occur by noon. Will see rain
gradually change to snow by noontime at DVL and overnight for all
other locations. Breezy NW winds across eastern ND.




SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.