Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071841
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1241 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Did need to increase temps across NE ND and into the RRV as
westerly winds efficiently warming to the SFC. Mid and upper 20s
now in the DVL basin and northern Red River valley with cooler
temps continuing to the east where winds are still southwesterly
and weaker. Some light echos on KMVX radar yet webcams and METARs
are not indicating any flurry activity reaching the ground so will
continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The main challenges for the short term will be afternoon highs and
chances for some light snow east of the valley late tonight.

Surface winds will turn more westerly today...and become breezy
west of the valley...allowing surface temps to rebound back into
the upper 20s west of the valley despite increasing clouds. H850
temps should increase about 10 deg over eastern ND while
remaining significantly cooler over the far east...with surface
temps peaking in the mid to upper 20s around Devils Lake and
staying in the mid teens around Bemidji.

A northerly flow upper level pattern will bring a series of upper
waves across the region...with the first clipping Lake of the
Woods early this morning while a second...currently over srn
Nunavut...sinks into northern Minnesota during the overnight
period. Models indicating an area of H300-H500 Q-vector
convergence moving across eastern zones in the 06Z to 12Z
period...where we have been carrying low POPs. With the forcing
generally across the east, did remove POPs across eastern ND and
limit southeastern zones to flurries as there will not be a whole
lot of moisture with this wave...but temps should be cold enough
to see some light snow develop in the east. Less than an inch of
accumulation is expected. Overnight lows will range from around 10
in the far northeast (Baudette) to around 20 in the far
southwest (Lisbon).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Friday through Tuesday...North to northwesterly flow aloft is
expected to continue throughout the period with several fast moving
shortwaves moving through. Models are in decent agreement on one
significant shortwave moving through Friday with some decent precip
chances for the eastern CWA and winds picking up across the west.
Will continue to keep POPs mainly along and east of the Red River
with blowing snow in the west. Amounts still look to be one to two
inches in our northeastern counties. Some of the model soundings
have some drying aloft in the Red River Valley so will have to watch
for FZDZ, but it is on the far west edge of the precip band and
think chances are low enough not to include for the time being.

Saturday should be fairly quiet but another quick clipper starts to
move in Sunday night/Monday morning, Yet another weak jet max moves
through Monday night/Tuesday morning, with more light precip
possible Wednesday. With the northwest flow aloft and fast movement
of the systems, not expecting high QPF amounts at this point but
several rounds of a dusting to a few inches will be possible
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions expected to erode as MVFR CIGs develop overnight
ahead of clipper system Friday afternoon. Low confidence on timing
and location of CIGs lowering this evening and overnight. -SN
possible past 12z Friday though have let out of TAF for now with
the low confidence.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK



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