Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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767
FXUS63 KFGF 300819
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

forecast concerns will be severe potential tonight and rain
duration. Models still differ on surface low position however high
resolution models supporting farther north solution. Otherwise
overall message similar with severe potential tonight.

Today will start out sunny with increasing southerly flow/moisture
flux during the afternoon. Surface low to organize over the
northern high plains and will be location of convective
initiation. Farther south solution would have convection
also developing along E-W boundary along the ND/SD border area
where the northern solution keeps convection farther west. With
model differences there is some uncertainty as to when convection
will reach our FA so did not make significant changes to pops.
Should be sufficient solar along with warm advection to get
temperatures a few degrees warmer than Sunday highs.

Main action will be tonight as surface low and related convection
shifts east into the region. Bulk shear not overly impressive and
best upper support lags back into the western/central dakotas.
However strong low level forcing and sufficient cape/instability
for severe storm threat. Slight risk area expanded north and
justified with some model showing farther north solution.

Surface low will reside over the northern fa on Tuesday. Dry
slotting will limit best rain chances to the northern fa. As a
result coolest temperatures will be across the north with
temperatures close to average across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Low becomes stacked Tuesday night across the northern valley
region so only a slow eastward propagation expected. This will
slowly shift wrap around rain band slowly east overnight to the
valley region.

low will pull out Wednesday with best rain chances over the ne fa.
Cooler column and clouds will hold temperatures well blo average.

Wednesday to Saturday night...Models have become consistent
with robust short wave trough moving across the northern plains to
start the extended period. Stacked low pressure system centered over
the valley will bring a cool...damp start to June with clouds and
showers lingering into the afternoon especially in NW MN...highs in
the 60s. Thursday and first half of Friday will be dry as 500mb
ridging and NW flow aloft bring weak high pressure to the
Northern Plains. The next CHC for convection arrives Friday PM
into Saturday as sfc low and upper support track across northern
Manitoba dragging a boundary across the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A shower or two may exist south of KFAR around sunrise. There is a
low probability that any showers would make it as far north as
KFAR. Most should stay closer to the SD border.

Added thunderstorms for Monday night in all TAFs. Expecting a
large area of thunderstorms extending NW to SE generally by
evening. There will likely be MVFR or even IFR cigs beyond this
TAF period, first at KDVL and then moving east.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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