Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 051728
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ND COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN
MORE MIXING THAN ANTICIPATED AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S BEFORE NOON. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTING TO 30KTS
AND ABOVE IN SOME LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER IS AN ISSUE...SO SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW. AT THIS POINT JUST HAVE ABOVE 90 IN THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL SEE IF WE NEED TO BUMP HIGHS UP SOME
MORE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POPS/WX TO REMOVE REMAINDER OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. BLEND OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY GETTING TO 90
DEGREES. CONSIDERING CAVALIER IS ALREADY 75 THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SO BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO EXIT HUBBARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH FOR TOMORROW. SOME
GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ISSUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH THIS UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CRITICAL. INCREASING MAX TEMPS AND DECREASING
MIN RHS...DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 WITH GUSTS HIGHER ALONG WITH THE DRY
FUELS ARE CREATING THE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...JK


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