Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 161529
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air will begin to filter into the region today as clouds will
gradually thin from the northwest. Expansive high pressure over the
Mississippi Valley will then build across our region tonight and
Saturday to set us up for a nice start to the weekend. While a weak
front may bring us some showers Saturday night...much of Sunday
should be precipitation free.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A wealth of moisture will be left across our region today in the
wake of last nights frontal passage. This will keep our skies mainly
covered with clouds with a secondary cold front kicking off some
light snow showers through mid afternoon.

As we work through the latter portions of the afternoon into the
evening...notably drier air in the mid levels will start to break up
our cloud cover. The clearing process will then be enhanced tonight
as a large area of high pressure over the plains will push to the
east across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. While there could
be some nuisance lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake
Ontario...a very low cap and increasingly dry synoptic environment
will severely limit the lake response.

Temperatures today will slowly drop from their morning highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s...falling below freezing by mid afternoon.
Readings tonight will then tumble into the teens...with single
digits expected in the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday. A
shortwave trough will move through the Ohio Valley and low pressure
will develop and deepen off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. Warm
air advection will occur across the eastern Great Lakes during this
time. Clouds will increase from south to north throughout the day.
The shortwave trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes by
Sunday night. The strongest forcing will be south of the region
however the precipitation shield will extend northward into NYS.
Snow will likely move into portions of the forecast area with the
best chance across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and North
Country. An inch or two of snowfall accumulation is possible.
Temperatures will be in the 30s Saturday and mid to upper 20s
Saturday night.

Snow will be coming to an end Sunday as the coastal low moves
further off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Snow may linger across the North
Country Sunday morning. High pressure will move south of the region
Sunday and winds will briefly become westerly. As the high moves off
the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night, winds will become southerly and
warm air advection will begin and start the warming trend into the
work week. Temperatures at 850mb will likely increase 5-10 deg
Sunday evening to Monday morning. Increasing clouds are expected
during this time. The lack of synoptic forcing should keep the
region mostly dry into Monday however rain will be fast approaching
the Southern Tier. Temperatures will be in the U30s/L40s Sunday.
Temperatures will likely drop into the low 30s Sunday evening before
rising back to near 40 by Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A significant warm up continues to be on track to start the next
work week. Medium range models remain in good agreement with a broad
trough carving out across the intermountain west Sunday into Monday,
with the downstream amplification of the broad upper-level ridge
anchored off the southeast coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This
pattern is favorable for opening the door to Gulf of Mexico air to
be advected poleward to the forecast area.

Monday will see late-day high temperatures in the mid 50s across WNY
and mid to upper 40s in the North Country as 850 mb temperatures
push +5 to +8C. 850 mb temperatures will then peak near +10C on
Tuesday, which, when combined with the southwesterly flow, will push
high temperatures across inland locations and the Genesee Valley
solidly into the 60s. Locations northeast of the cold lakes, like
Buffalo and Watertown will likely be held slightly cooler in the
upper 50s to near 60. Would not rule out the possibility of setting
some daytime high temperature records, with the best chance being at
Rochester, where Tuesday`s record is 62 degrees.

Periods of rain showers are likely from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. PW values will increase to near records levels for this
time of year (likely over 1"), along with a baroclinic zone stalled
to our west with a couple waves of low pressure moving along it.
While there remain model differences on timing any of these waves,
and when the exactly the cold front crosses the region later Tuesday
into Wednesday, it will most certainly be an overall wet period. That
said it will likely not be a total washout, with likely some dry
breaks at times. Will need to closely monitor the flood threat on
area creeks and rivers with the expected combination of snow melt
and rainfall.

A return to cooler, more seasonable temperatures and drier weather
returns for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure is forecast to
build in across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level moisture left in the wake of last nights frontal passage
will keep IFR to MVFR cigs in place through most of the morning.
These cigs will stubbornly rise to about 3500 feet in most areas for
the afternoon.

High pressure will move across the region tonight and early
Saturday. That will promote fair VFR conditions for the first half
of the weekend.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Chance of light snow and IFR. Sunday...VFR. Sunday
night...Chance of snow changing to rain with VFR/MVFR. Monday and
Tuesday...Rain becoming likely with MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing winds and waves are expected today within a cold
west-northwesterly flow. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Winds/waves are expected
to relax this weekend with high pressure building across the
region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH/TMA



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