Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 161435
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather this
weekend...including summerlike temperatures with highs averaging out
within a few degrees of 80 each day. While there will be a minimal
chance for showers across the Southern Tier on Monday...fair dry
weather with above normal temperatures will persist through next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stacked high pressure will remain anchored over the Lower Great
Lakes through the weekend. This will provide pleasant dry weather
with temperatures that will average well above normal. As for some
details...

Plenty of sunshine will be found across western and north central
New York today...but it will be filtered by a fair amount of smoke
in a layer around 10k ft (thanks KBUF Tower). This smoke is
trapped within the stacked anticyclone...and cutoff from its
wildfire source over the Pacific Northwest-western Canada. At first
glance on visible imagery...one might mistakenly attribute the hazy
looking sky cover for cirrus...but a look at the 00z and 12z KBUF
soundings will tell you otherwise. Given the lack of flow above 10k
ft...the smoke should linger over the region through the weekend.

In any case...it will be warm this afternoon. H85 temps in the vcnty
of 13c will easily support max temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
These readings will be some 10 deg f above typical mid September
temperatures.

After a spectacular sunset...enhanced by the previously discussed
elevated smoke...any diurnal cu will give way to mainly clear skies.
Cannot go as far as to highlight the starlit nature of the night
(thank you smoke)...although it will be a great night for outdoor
activities. The favorable radiational cooling will once again lead
to some valley fog...mainly across the Southern Tier and in the
Thousand Islands region. Mins will range from the lower 60s along
the lake shores to the mid 50s across the North Country and in the
Srn Tier valleys.

While high pressure will remain intact across the region for
Sunday...there is a continued suggestion by several of the guidance
packages that a return flow of Atlantic moisture between the base of
the sfc high and the easterly flow well in advance of Hurricane Jose
will direct increased low level moisture across southern New York.
This increased moisture will combine with late season diurnal
heating to at least present the potential for some nuisance showers
over the Southern Tier. A subsidence cap should still be in place
arnd 10k ft though...so am skeptical that we will see more than an
increase in cloud cover. Will hold onto low chc pops for now and
await fresh guidance.

Nevertheless...Sunday will be yet another warm day across our
region. Given a warmer start to the morning and slightly higher
temps at H85...a larger portion of our forecast area should
experience highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
After an uneventful night Sunday night...a weak cold front will
push across the region on Monday. This feature will bring
additional moisture towards our region, that when combined with
lingering Atlantic moisture may fuel a few showers across WNY.
Best chances will be upon developing lake breeze circulation
boundaries through the afternoon hours. Coverage will be spotty
again, and will continue with chances PoPs. Drier air to the
east will likely lead to a dry, and sunny day for the Finger
Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region.

This trough and cold front will wash out over our region Monday
night and into Tuesday as it becomes block by the approach of Jose
up the Atlantic coastline.

Both Sunday and Monday will feature afternoon temperatures in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will bottom out in the 50s,
though possibly remain around 60F closer to the lake shores.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front will wash out across the region on Tuesday,
leaving the day dry. Then a bubble of high pressure will build in
aloft for mid to late week as Jose is forecast to track near or just
off the New England coastline on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
This will keep fair weather, sunny skies and warm temperatures in
place for the forecast area. Daily high temperatures Tuesday through
Friday will be above normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s, especially
late in the week when temperatures aloft at 850 hPa rise to near +16
to +18C. Over night lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While stationary high pressure over the region will provide fine...
VFR weather for flying for this TAF period...there will be some
problem spots.

First of all...as of 14z the low stratus and fog has yet to burn off
along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario...including at KART. This
stubborn patch of IFR conditions will slowly improve during the
remaining morning hours so that VFR weather can be expected for the
afternoon.

Then as we push through this evening into the overnight hours...fog
will once again develop in the valleys of the Southern Tier and also
in the Thousand Islands region. This will once again impact KJHW...
KELZ and likely KART.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR...but with IFR to MVFR conditions
possible each night (08-12z) at KJHW.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be stacked over the Lower Great Lakes through the
weekend and into next week. The resulting weak surface pressure
gradient will result in nearly ideal conditions for recreational
boating as winds will be light and waves will be negligible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



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