Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 251947
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OF THE AREA WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SOAKING RAIN ON THURSDAY BEFORE COLD WEATHER RETURNS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW MAY START SOONER...

A BAND OF RAIN ACCOMPANIES THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AND END BY
EARLY EVENING...THEN A LULL IN THE PRECIP AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT
ALOFT OVERRIDES THE WARMER AIR.

ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT SO MIXING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING...AND ONWARD TO PENNSYLVANIA BY THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN ALONG THE COLDER SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER WILL FALL
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.5 INCH. THERE
WILL BE A MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALONG THIS COLDER SIDE OF THE
LOW WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO AND
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY TEMPS
NEARING THE 40 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE CONCERN DURING THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN
FOR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING...THERE IS NOW A SUGGESTION
BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST BY
THE START OF THIS PERIOD...BUT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...TAKING WITH IT THE DEEP LIFT
THAT WAS SUPPLIED BY A PAIR OF 150KT H25 JETLETS AND STRONG H925-70
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOUND WITHIN 100 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THE SFC
LOW TRACK. REMOVING THIS LIFT WHILE INTRODUCING MID LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TAPERING OFF
TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TO A COUPLE TENTHS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE 12 HOUR EVENT WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS ON SOME
TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THE THREE MAIN WATERWAYS IN THE BUFFALO
AREA (CAZENOVIA, CAYUGA, BUFFALO CREEKS). FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ON FRIDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STEADIER SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
FAVORABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION/UPSLOPE REGIME. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 10
DEG LOWER THAN THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS MAX TEMPS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING.

THE UPSLOPE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DELAY ANY REAL CLEARING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
ONTARIO. EVEN SO...ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURED IN TENTHS
RATHER THAN INCHES. MEANWHILE...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SEND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL GUARANTEE AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD DAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THESE VALUES WILL BE SOME 20 DEG
BELOW NORMAL LATE MARCH VALUES. WHILE THE COLD AIR MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE INCREASED SUN
SHOULD HELP TO TEMPER AN OTHERWISE LATE JANUARY THERMOMETER.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA PCPN FREE. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PROMOTE NOTABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER
40S FOR MANY AREAS. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL THEN INTRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A PARADE OF PACIFIC BASED
SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COMFORTABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS...THE MERCURY WILL STILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
MARCH NORMALS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH TO OPEN THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE IN THE UNSTABLE CHILLY
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE PCPN FREE. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THIS EVENT.

ON TUESDAY...A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID
WEST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WHILE THE
BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSS OUR REGION...THE
RESULTING SYNOPTIC FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLGT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE WARMING...THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW-NE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT
TO THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 11Z IN THE WEST AND 15Z IN THE NORTH AND
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE HIGHER WAVE ACTION OF 2-4 FEET OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS WEEK WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN TODAY WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS RAINFALL...IT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A
SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
ANYWHERE FROM A THIRD TO A HALF OF AN INCH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND COLDER
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN COOLER (JUST ABOVE
FREEZING) TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY THUS SOME OF THE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AREAS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME
LIQUID RAINFALL AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
AND IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS.

HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE LATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK (ESF) PRODUCT...AND THE RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE
WEEK IS DISCUSSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). IF THERE
IS GOING TO BE FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT THIS SPRING...THIS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO BE THE SYSTEM TO DO IT FOR THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...GENESEE...AND ALLEGHENY BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/WCH






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