Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270844
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
444 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 08Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALONG AN OLD LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP...AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT THIS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
ANALYZED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM JUST
WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
ONTARIO BACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE. FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED BE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA BY 13Z-14Z. ANY SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS BY MID
MORNING...AND EXIT THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE THIS MORNING.
QPF SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WITH
PWATS OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH
WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRIER AIR. HOWEVER A STRATOCU
OR MID LEVEL DECK MAY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLEARING TOWARDS VERY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTION
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR FROM CANADA TO POUR SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE
ALOFT...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA. EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME
EXTRA CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...SOME 5
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING FOR
READINGS TO DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...NONETHELESS THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY NICK THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THESE ARE AREAS
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO ANY MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID
70S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE REAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND WARMER WEATHER TO COME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON
SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S...MAKING FOR A
BALMY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE OTTAWA
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE AREA
REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TYPICALLY FASTER OPEN WAVE CROSSING SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF OPTS FOR A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT
CROSS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS DIFFERENCE WITH
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AS NOMINALLY COOLER AIR
WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 08Z...MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS BUF/IAG/ROC TERMINALS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS JHW/ART. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COOLER
AIR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. AFTER
THIS...CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SOME
BREAKS BEING FOUND. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY
WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WATERS. WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST UNDER 3 FEET OR
LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM







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