Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261104
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT A CHILLY AND RAW DAY TODAY DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH COLD AIR
ARRIVING ON A NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AND LOWER CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TYPICALLY MAINTAIN
A LOWER CLOUD LAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CASE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CLEARING WILL STATE
SOONER...EARLY AFTERNOON... ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THEN CLOSER TO
EARLY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME TOGETHER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL INITIALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EARLY
IN THE DAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWERING
DEWPOINTS...WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S. IT WILL BE EVEN COLDER IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
BLACK RIVER REGIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...AND A
LITTLE LESS COLD ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS AND CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY EAST THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL
CONTINUITY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

FRIDAY WILL BECOME DRIER WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS A
BIT UP IN THE AIR. AT FIRST GLANCE... THE GLOBAL MODELS ARENT IN
TERRIBLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN... WITH LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING UP THE EAST COAST... TROUGHING INTO NEW ENGLAND
KEEPING A FEED OF COOLER CANADIAN SOURCED AIR INTO REGION. A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS... WHICH
WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PER
THE EC / OR EJECT SHORTWAVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST PER THE GFS. WITH
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES... EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE FEED OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DRY BEFORE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY... WHICH
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING EJECTS
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CEILINGS
AND SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. THE COLD NORTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL MAINTAIN THE IFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN  NY WITH CLEARING STARTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
18Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST AND SOUTH IN A 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THAT FRONT
MOVES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL WEAK
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS THE WINDS AND WAVES. BENIGN WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH/WOOD
MARINE...WCH



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