Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211114
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
714 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMER... MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S... AND
AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NRLY STNRY SFC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS OUR
CWA TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/2 OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER. FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LARGE UPR LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN LESS CU AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WARMING TREND. DESPITE COOL START TO
THE DAY WITH DAWN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S... AFTN HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S. SHRTWV TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS UPR
RIDGE WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CDFNT TRAILING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS IN OUR CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH GRDLY WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 23C. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS
TUESDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES. CONCERN THAT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION IN THE
LOW LAYERS EXTENDING INTO THE MID LAYERS. A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C AND 8C/KM WILL BE
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN MAX
CAPE VALUES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER
GFS/BUFKIT...SO KEPT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSERVATIVE. THE LATEST
GFS RUN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH GREATEST IMPACT
AT FWA WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. UPR RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN LESS CU THAN YDAY WITH JUST SCT CLOUDS
EXPECTED. THE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT BR FROM FORMING AT LEAST AT SBN... WHILE
COMBINATION OF STILL LIGHT WINDS AND GRDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT FWA AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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