Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161747
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
147 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

High pressure will continue moving east this afternoon with
slightly warmer southwest winds this afternoon. High temperatures
will be in the middle to upper 30s. Another low pressure system
will approach late tonight and move across the region on Friday.
A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is looking likely
Friday morning before precipitation changes to all rain as
temperatures rise above freezing. The morning commute may be
impacted with icy roads possible in areas that are seeing
precipitation. A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with
highs in the 50s by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Much warmer air will be spreading over the retreating cold dome
of air on the surface tonight into Friday. Limited upper air
support will allow for a mix of precipitation to develop tonight
and persist into Friday. Concern for a 6 hour window of somewhat
heaver precipitation of a wintry mix late tonight into early
Friday. It is possible there will be a short period of sleet or
freezing rain before temperatures rise above freezing Friday given
the latest BUFKIT profiles. Given the likelihood of road
temperatures below freezing, travel issues are possible Friday
morning.

A cold front will move across the area Friday night, but little if
any precipitation is expected with this front.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Any lingering rain or snow will end by late Saturday before a
high pressure ridge builds into the area Sunday. No snow
accumulation is expected Saturday. The next system will move in
very rapidly early next week. The thermal profiles indicate this
will be mainly a rain event, although it is possible there could
be some travel impacts for the Monday morning commute. Otherwise,
dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs mainly in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Quiet and VFR to start this period but conditions expected to
deteriorate late tonight to MVFR. A low pressure system will
approach overnight. Light precipitation is expected to spread east
across terminals after 09z at KSBN and closer to 12z at KFWA.
Thermal profiles suggest a mix of pcpn types at both sites with
freezing rain...snow and some sleet possible. DGZ remains very
high for this event with a lot of supercooled water below 10kft.
Small near surface cold layer combined with evaporative cooling
will aid in some sleet and pockets of stronger lift will lead to
snow. Pcpn type changes to all rain mid to late morning with sfc
temps climbing just above freezing.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Lashley


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