Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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385
FXUS63 KIWX 250619
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
219 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE 40S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE. WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
EAST TO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY MONDAY EVE. STNRY FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM SD SFC LOW TO SRN WI/MI SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
WKNG LOW MOVES ESE ALONG IT. S-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO GRDLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND CONTD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MONDAY SHOULD DESTABILIZE
AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1KJ/KG IN THE AFTN.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED AS CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR, THOUGH
LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW MOVG INTO WI
AND IN VCNTY OF STNRY FRONT OVER SRN MI SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES
FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK-MODERATE
INSTABILITY, 30-35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND RATHER LOW WET BULB
ZERO AROUND 8-9KFT SUGGESTS IF STORMS DO DVLP MONDAY AFTN, A FEW
MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AND HAIL APCHG SEVERE LIMITS. WAA AND
INCRSG GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN KEY
TIMING OF FEATURES DESPITE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL IMPACTS COULD HAMPER
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA UNLESS A WELL DEFINED LINE
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OR FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS QUICKER TO
ARRIVE. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS BUT LOWERED POPS THEMSELVES WITH
COVERAGE MAYBE ONLY WARRANTING MORE OF A SCT WORDING. MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT DOES EXIST ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL ON ABOVE FACTORS.
WILL LEAVE MENTION IN HWO. WARM NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE WITH A SLOW
FALLOFF IN TEMPS MAINLY OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND GIVE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE...BUT ROLLER COASTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS EACH WAVES MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH INCREASED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDS INTO THURS NGT AND AGAIN SAT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

DEEP MIXING TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS. RAISED WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR VCNTY STORMS AT
SBN STARTING AT 03Z AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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