Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 200842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
442 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

High pressure will continue to provide fair weather today.
Highs today will be near 70 degrees. A weak upper level
disturbance lifting through the Ohio Valley will bring an increase
in cloud cover to the region. There is a low chance for light rain
along and southeast of the Route 24 corridor tonight. High
pressure will then build back into the region over the weekend
into early next week. This will result in dry conditions and
warming temperatures that could reach near 80 by Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Muli-lobed mid level circulation over west central Missouri to lift
gradually newd into sern Michigan by daybreak saturday. Initial
northward push of moisture/rain shield thwarted by antecedent dry
air and swrn periphery of mid level height rise centroid/surface
ridge with deep layer dvm. eventually as surface cyclogenesis
unfolds midday over TN to southern OH overnight a more concerted
push of richer 1000-850mb moisture on order of 8-9g/kg reaching
inflection into sern cwa late tonight...before pulling eastward
early Saturday. Given 30-40m/12 hr falls associated with system to
enter cwa and favorable moisture profiles over sern cwa have raised
pops along with slightly more nw reach. Blend of prior forecast and
latest model consensus yields about 70f today which given a decent
amount of insolation again today especially n-nern cwa. Sufficient
offshore component flow should minimize lake shadow in contrast to


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

High plains mid level ridging to overspread eastward into upper
great lakes in wake of friday night systems passage into new
england that drives significant coastal cyclogenesis. Very dry
/pwat on order of 0.40 inches/ subsident airmass for moderating
temperatures to above normal/near 80 by tuesday. Again as yday
have held line with respect to onset of higher pops/shra/tsra chcs
as initial wave ejection from deep/expansive wrn conus cyclone
likely deflects nw-n of cwa and initial gomex feed lacking/shunted
well westward. Gradual ramp to mid level chance pops starting tue
aftn...though best chances in wed/wed night timeframe as cwa
becomes poised for additional upstream shortwave ejections in deep
swrly flow as large scale trof opens/broadens and transitions from
highly pos tilt to neg tilt axis /BC into corn belt/ by dy7.
Models hint at shallow frontal passage late thu that could provide
convective focus to linger into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

A surface low will track across the Ohio Valley tonight and spread
clouds into northern Indiana. Precipitation and lower clouds are
expected to stay south of the terminals, although winds will
become east today at 5-10 knots.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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