Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 142026
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE CAROLINAS AND LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 50 ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

BLOCKED PATTN ALOFT POSING ALL KINDS OF DIFFICULTIES ESP IN
REGARD TO VOLATILE TEMP FCST. JUST LIKE YDA ANOTHER SUCKER HOLD
HAS MATERIALIZED ACRS CNTRL CWA AND GIVEN STG LL THERMAL RIDGE IN
PLACE ALOFT...PD OF INSOLATION RESULTING IN RAPID 10+ DEGREE SFC
WARMING. SAT/OBS TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A CONTD EWD ADVTN OF
UPSTREAM LOW STRATUS LYR OUT OF IL...IN AN AREA OF INCREASING
BNDRY LYR MSTR FLUX AND DEEPENING MSTR DEPTH. THUS XPC INSOLATION
WILL BE BRIEF BUT ENOUGH TO ILLICIT A SIG SFC RESPONSE. REGARDLESS
STRATUS RTNS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
DIURNAL AND HOLD FOG DVLPMNT AT BAY AGAIN LIKE LAST NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL NOT FLIP FLOP BACK TWD IN LIGHT OF CONFLICTED MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATIONS.

OTRWS ATTN SHIFTS TWD NEWD EJECTION OF POTENT SW LIFTING OUT THE TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. FAIRLY STG VERTICAL ASCENT INADV OF SYS WKNS
W/EWD EXTENT AS SYS BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT IN TANDEM W/DOMINANT NRN
STREAM SW DIGGING SEWD INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TUE NIGHT. REGARDLESS PD
OF DEEP ASCENT COLLOCATED W/DECENT MSTR SURGE WILL SPELL A PD OF
RAIN MON AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PER 12Z MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERY/UNSEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS AS A HIGH PLAINS PV ANOMALY TRACKS ENE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. FIRST ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED/YET NARROWING RAIN WITHIN
LLJ/THETA-E RIDGE ON LEADING EDGE OF OCCLUSION SHOULD WORK EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE AFTN/EVE. A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE
LIKELY LATE EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WORKS THROUGH PROVIDING AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.
REDUCED MID LVL STATIC STABILITY WITH COLD POCKET, RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WEAKENED MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS TO GRAZE OUR NRN ZONES FAVORS
KEEPING WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A RETURN TO COLDER/MORE TYPICAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MID-LATE
WEEK PERIODS AS COLD/DRY ADVECTION COMMENCES TUE NIGHT-WED IN WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM COUNTERPART
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKES. THIS REGIME MAY TOUCH OFF A
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NRN ZONES LATER TUE
NIGHT THRU THU...WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS WARRANTED GIVEN MARGINAL
DELTA T`S/MOISTURE PROFILES. DRY OTHERWISE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

FCST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING/MUDDLED BY FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY AS ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET SENDS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO
THE EASTERN US UNDER A BLOCKY NORTHERN STREAM. ATTM A CONSENSUS
(STILL A LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LEFTOVER
LAKES/MIDWEST BLOCKING) FAVORS A SUPPRESSED/DRY SOLUTION
LOCALLY...BUT WILL HOLD WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW (MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILE) GIVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND LATEST OP GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING SLOWLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR 2 NOW
JUST CROSSING FUEL ALTERNATE LEVELS. AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS
ILLINOIS HAS NOW FILLED IN WITH IFR CIGS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
BOTH TAF SITES. STILL APPEARS THAT IFR CIGS MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...OF INVERSION MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT AND
ALLOWING FOR HIGHER CEILINGS OR BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD WILL PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS AND SATELLITE
DATA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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