Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 180549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon bringing
low chances for an isolated rain shower, with mainly dry and
slightly cooler conditions expected in its wake Tonight into
Wednesday morning. Chances for a widespread rain event then
increase late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a low pressure
system lifts through the Ohio Valley. Cooler temperatures are
then expected to follow Friday into the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Unseasonably mild and breezy conditions will continue into
tonight and Tuesday morning as low level southwest flow ramps up
in response to deepening surface low lifting northeast through the
northern Great Lakes. Trailing cold front will slide southeast
into nw IN/lower MI later Tuesday morning/early afternoon and then
into remaining areas mid-late afternoon. Shower/isolated thunder
chances continue to look low along this feature given shallow
moisture profiles and little mid-upper level support.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A trend toward cooler (yet still above normal) temperatures and
mainly dry conditions become the story into Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning as frontal boundary stalls out toward the OH River under
southwest flow aloft.

Models have remained consistent in a decent frontal wave lifting
northeast through the northern OH Valley/eastern Great Lakes late
Wednesday into Thursday in response to upper trough amplifying into
the central US. Strong dynamics and ample moisture return into
burgeoning deformation axis should support a widespread rain event
during this time into at least our ne IN/nw OH counties where
rainfall amounts could exceed an inch, though expect slight
temporal/spatial adjustments going forward. PoPs/QPF may be a little
underdone in the current forecast per 12z model consensus, with an
increase expected going forward. A cooler/mainly dry northwest flow
regime in then expected in wake of system Friday through Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Winds continue to be main impact at terminals this period. Deeply
mixed atmosphere leading to sustained 15 to 20 knot winds with
gusts around 30 knots. Seeing some slight diminishing trends last
few hours but still expect gusty winds to continue through
daybreak along with low level wind shear at both KSBN and KFWA.
Winds will diminish Tuesday as cold front approaches and gradient
relaxes. Wind shift to northwest then expected mid to late
afternoon with fropa. Only a slight chance for a light shower with
front given lack of deep moisture and forcing. Not worthy of
inclusion at this time given limited if any impacts.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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