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000
FXUS63 KIWX 031546
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1046 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM NEBRASKA THIS MORNING TO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN FAIR BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

ARCTIC HIGH OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR CWA BY
THIS EVE AND TO PA BY TUE MORNING. TEMPS GENERALLY IN SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH WIND CHILLS -5 TO -15. DECOUPLING OCRG OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS... SO EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE THE -15F ADVISORY CRITERIA.

CIRRUS SHIELD TO N-NE OF SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS CONTG TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH HAVE ERODED LOW CLOUDS SHIELD
OVER SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AND LAKE EFFECT PLUME HAS BEEN
SHIFTING WEST OUT OF NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. NO
CHANGES MADE TO TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS. MIXING WILL BE HINDERED BY WK
GRADIENT AND SNOWPACK SO ONLY EXPECT ABOUT A 10F RISE FROM MORNING
LOWS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. RECORD LOW MAX FOR TODAY
AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IS 14 SET IN 1943 AND EXPECT BOTH SITES WILL
BE CLOSE.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS WK LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVG
ESE FROM THE NRN PLAINS. STAYED CLOSE TO GOING FCST MINS WHICH WERE
GENERALLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z GUIDANCE. MINS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
RECORD LOWS AT SBN (-3 IN 2002) AND FWA (0 IN 1978). CONSIDERED
ADDING LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT FOR APCHG SHRTWV BUT HELD OFF FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE AND GIVEN MODELS OVERALL WK FORCING/DRY LOW LEVEL
PROGS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

THE DOMINANT LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING MUCH BELOW NORMAL. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...FAVORED A GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
2ND HALF OF THIS PERIOD. THE GFS HAS HAD SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME HANDLE ON THE LATE
WEEK SHORT WAVE. IN THE SHORTER TERM...SOME MODERATION IN THE
OVERALL NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A HIGHER
ZONAL FLOW. WEAK SHORT WAVES IN HIGH ZONAL FLOW WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY INTRODUCED OR RAISED SNOW CHANCES
THESE PERIODS GIVEN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND REASONABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ON MID LVL ISENTROPIC SURFACES THAT EXCEEDED 3 G/KG.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW FAIR WX CU MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTN... THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT
AS A WK SHRTWV DROPS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
LIGHT N-NE SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SE-S TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS EAST THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/KG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


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