Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
103 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Issued at 808 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Cooler and drier air will infiltrate the region behind the cold
front that passed through on Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the
40s. Monday will have more sun than Sunday, but highs will only
reach the upper 50s to around 60. High pressure will then bring
dry and mild conditions for the rest of the week as high
temperatures moderate into the lower to middle 70s for the latter
part of the work week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Brief/transient shot of cool/seasonable air the main weather story
into tonight and Monday in wake of potent shortwave lifting
northeast toward Quebec. Steepening low level lapse rates within
strong cold advection wing has resulted in rather raw/windy Sunday.
This shot of cold advection (delta T`s pushing 20C) and veered
northwest flow is eliciting a lake response...with coverage of lake-
effect showers maximizing this evening as convective layer depth
briefly increases to near 8 kft. Bumped up PoPs/Sky Cover a bit for
expected isolated to scattered lake effect shower coverage.

A trailing shortwave will dig through the Great Lakes region Monday
morning. Overall moisture quality is not very impressive, though
likely enough to slow clearing of lake clouds a bit compared to
previous thinking. Dry/cool with skies becoming mostly sunny
otherwise on Monday as backing winds and overspreading subsidence
brings an end to any lake effect activity.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Flow pattern becomes more high zonal into mid-week, followed by a
more amplified Western US trough-Eastern US ridge configuration late
week into next weekend. The result will be an extended stretch of
dry conditions, mainly clear skies, and above normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR through this period. Strong subsidence drying/cloud erosion
making quick progress across lake MI attm as primary lake effect
shra bands retreat north in response to backing low level flow ahead
of upstream disturbance aloft shifting sewd out of WI. As such
expect persisting lake based stratocu currently to erode out toward
15Z commensurate with rapidly deepening subsidence in wake of this
aforementioned disturbance. Otherwise nwrly sfc winds will back
swrly this evening as sfc ridge drives ewd through the TN valley and
remain blo 10kts.


LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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