165
FXUS63 KIWX 062355
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
755 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this evening will be capable of
  localized flooding and gusty winds.

- There is a risk for dangerous currents and breaking waves on
  Lake Michigan beaches along the coasts of Berrien and La Porte
  counties this evening into Monday.

- Trending mainly dry and less humid into Monday and Tuesday.
  Shower and storm potential returns mid-late week, best chances
  (30-50%) during the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase through the mid-
late afternoon hours along a cold front and leading pre-frontal
trough. Cells will generally be rather pulsy given a muted wind
field resulting in only ~20 knots of effective bulk shear.
Skinny MLCAPE near ~1500 j/kg, and a moist column (precipitable
water values near 2"), may still be enough to encourage
isolated, marginally severe, wind gusts within any deeper
updrafts and/or cell mergers/segments. Torrential downpours and
localized flooding likely the greater threat however given slow
movement, a deep/moist warm cloud layer, and the potential for
backbuilding per small MBE vectors.

Tonight will feature a decline in coverage and intensity of
convection as the the primary front slowly sags southeast through
the area and begins to wash out, though did retain lower end PoPs
through the night given the lingering moisture and modest
instability in the vicinity of the front.

A trend toward less humid and mainly dry conditions Monday afternoon
into Tuesday as we see brief influence from sfc high pressure
skating by to the north. Where exactly the instability axis lays out
by peak Monday remains somewhat uncertain, thus have retained low-
mid chances for widely scattered convection south of the US 24
corridor per a model consensus.

A typical, quasi-zonal flow, pattern will bring daily shower/storm
chances back into the fold mid week through the upcoming weekend,
best chances in the afternoon as several convectively-augmented
waves track through and interact with a frontal boundary oscillating
between the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Confidence is low
regarding daily PoPs in this regime given the reliance on difficult
to predict smaller scale perturbations. Temperatures should average
out near to slightly above normal otherwise during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions start the period, then overnight into
early Monday predominantly IFR to MVFR. A cold front crossing
through the area (just off to the west of KFWA) will allow for
continued shower and storm development through the evening, with
gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning the primary threats.
Conditions within storms may temporarily drop to MVFR/IFR
(observations extremely variable within storms today), but for
now kept the tempo MVFR at KFWA. Most of the thunderstorm
activity will be centered east of KSBN, with some showers
through the evening (VCSH). Winds shift west to northwest behind
the front, eventually becoming more northerly Monday (more N-NW
possible at KSBN overnight). Otherwise, with recent rainfall and
lowering inversion heights expect the ceilings to drop to
MVFR/IFR overnight, with BR potential (left BR out for now).
Upstream observations show ceiling heights of 400-800 feet.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...MCD