Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
120 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Issued at 1250 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

A slow moving upper level disturbance will bring light rain showers
early this morning with the greatest coverage along and south of
Route 24. A few isolated rain showers may persist after daybreak
across portions of northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio...though it
will dry out and skies will clear later this afternoon. After
morning lows in the lower 50s...temperatures will rebound into the
upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. Dry weather will dominate
through Tuesday as high pressure drifts across the region. High
temperatures will gradually warm with some locations reaching the
lower 80s by mid week.


Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

A slow moving upper level disturbance across the mid MS Valley
will work its way across the Ohio Valley through Saturday
afternoon. Increasing upper level forcing with this wave and weak
isentropic upglide across the area should support continued
northward advancement of light rain showers this evening. Some
enhanced low level convergence in association with inverted trough
appears to be aiding rain coverage across portions of
central/north central Indiana. With above trends, may make just
some slight adjustments to the going forecast to increase PoPs
across southern half or southeast half of the forecast area, with
a slightly faster ramp up this evening, but overall idea of
previous forecast will be maintained. Low level easterly flow
will maintain a relatively dry subcloud layer through this rain
event, which should temper amounts despite the prolonged timing
across the southeast.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Not much change from update earlier with weak area of low
pressure developing across the ohio valley will send a surge of
increased moisture and lift that will graze the southeast third of
the area tonight. Hi res models have backed off on nw extent of
the showers and went back to a more reasonable setup warranting
holding onto low end likely pops in the far se tonight. Rainfall
amounts should be under a tenth of an inch in many cases.

Skies will quickly clear across the nw half of the area but be a
touch slower in se portions as the upper level system slowly edges
east. By afternoon, should see a good deal of sunshine with
temperatures responding, climbing into the 70s for all but far
southeast areas where clouds will linger longest and also along
the lake shore.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Fairly status quo on the long term forecast with high pressure
dominating conditions through at least Tuesday. A series of waves
will eject from the southwest and move northeast...mainly
impacting locations near or west of the Mississippi River. As we
get closer to Wednesday/Wednesday night chances to increase as one
of the stronger waves does get close enough to give a more
favorable chance for showers and storms. mex guidance points
towards highs in the 80s...but given potential cloud cover and
precip chances will keep temps somewhat subdued for now with
superblend working well for the time being.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

An upper level system was over Indiana and was spreading rain
toward the Ft Wayne terminal. Lower ceilings were south of the
terminal. Have been favoring a drier sub/cloud layer at Ft Wayne,
helping to keep VFR conditions there. An area of rain will move
over the area following by decreasing clouds late in the TAF
period as subsidence increases behind the system.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Fisher

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