


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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326 FXUS63 KGID 062219 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 519 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong-severe storms are possible across Phillips and Rooks county through the evening hours. - An MCS is expected to move into western portions of the area during late evening- overnight hours though uncertainty remains if these storms will be strong-severe due ongoing thunderstorms. - Strong to severe storms are possible across the area Monday evening-night as an MCS moves through the area. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible with these storms. - Active weather continues through the rest of the forecast period, with chances for storms (15-50%) each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 This evening and tonight.... Strong to Severe thunderstorms have developed and tracked across far southwestern and northeastern portions of the area from the remnants of an MCS that originated across northern Nebraska. The strongest storm tracked through Gosper and Furnas counties producing hail up to baseball sized. As these storms move into north central Kansas, additional severe thunderstorm development may occur across Rooks and Phillips county as they are on the eastern edge of more favorable shear. Additionally, scattered showers and storms have developed along the outflow boundary across central portions of the area, but these have remained weak so far. This boundary will continue to push southeast through the evening hours, with additional development possible along the outflow boundary. Models have struggled greatly in their depiction of storms today, with models originally expecting the MCS to dissipate before it reached the forecast area. This brings uncertainty to tonight`s thunderstorm threat as the environment behind the ongoing storms is cooler and more stable. Thunderstorms are currently developing across eastern Colorado and Wyoming. These storms are expected to form into an MCS capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts this evening as they track into western Nebraska. The MCS is expected to enter western portions of the forecast area during the late evening- overnight hours. The strength of this MCS will be determined by how much the atmosphere recovers this evening post-storms. If the atmosphere is able to recover, with CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg, it would likely support the MCS persisting into the forecast area at strong-severe strength, weakening as it moves further east due to weaker shear/increasing CIN. Tend to think that this is unlikely given the lingering storms and cloud coverage. If the atmosphere is unable to recover, the MCS would likely fall below severe strength by the time it enters western portions of the area. Regardless of strength, the MCS will weaken as it move east across the area overnight. Monday... Scattered thunderstorms from the overnight MCS will exit eastern portions of the area during the Monday morning hours. Highs will climb into the 80s across south central Nebraska and into the low 90s across north central Kansas. An shortwave trough traversing through the southwesterly flow aloft will result in thunderstorm development over eastern CO/WY Monday afternoon. The storms will again develop into a MCS capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail as it moves through western Nebraska. Additional thunderstorm development is possible along a cold front in north central Nebraska from the aforementioned shortwave. Instability and shear will be stronger than today, with CAPE values over 2000J/Kg and shear over 30kts. This will support the MCS maintaining severe strength as it moves into western portions of the area. Given the timing of the storms (late evening/overnight) storms will weaken as they move further east overnight and encounter increasing CIN. How far east there is a severe threat is uncertain, with the entire forecast area in at least a marginal risk and a slight/enhanced for western portions of the area where confidence in severe potential is higher. Tuesday Onwards... The shortwave trough will move into the Midwest on Tuesday, as ridging strengthens over the Southwest, placing the area under northwesterly flow aloft Tuesday and Wednesday. A few scattered storms are possible during the evening-overnight hours each day, though any details remain uncertain at this time. A stronger shortwave trough will break down the ridge as it moves into the Great Plains on Thursday. This looks to be the day of highest concern for severe potential in the long range, as forecast soundings show robust instability Thursday afternoon. Cooler weather returns on Friday and Saturday as troughing resides over the area, with scattered chances for storms and highs in the 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Scattered-BKN MVFR cumulus is possible over the next couple of hours before cumulus rises above MVFR. Have included at TEMPO group for this off and on potential. A scattered line of storms could move in from the northwest and impact KGRI and KEAR during the afternoon hours. It is still a little uncertain if the storms will make it. Have included a PROB30 group for this potential. Around midnight, a line of storms is expected to move in from the west, first impacting KEAR, then KGRI. It is uncertain how strong this line of storms will be (could be gusty winds) or how organized it will be. Have kept a PROB30 group due to lingering uncertainty, but a prevailing group may end up being needed. The storms are expected to exit the TAF sites during the early morning hours on Monday, with SCT-BKN mid-high level clouds through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and east-northeasterly through the afternoon hours. Winds become light and variable overnight (outside of any thunderstorm). Southerly winds strengthen to around 8-10kts by the late morning hours on Monday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis