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000
FXUS63 KGID 021747
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1147 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPS WERE TIED THIS MORNING FOR THIS DATE. RECORD
EVENT REPORTS WERE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM. PLEASE SEE UPDATED
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBS INDICATE THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
NEAR -20F. TEMPS AS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD AND WHILE WIND CHILLS
COULD REMAIN NEAR -20 IN A FEW LOCATIONS...WE WILL LET THE
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

AN EARLY ESTF UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT. FCST HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING
2-4F TOO COLD COMPARED TO REALITY N OF I-80. FCST HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGS TOO HIGH. SO THE HOURLIES SHOULD BE BACK
ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.

WE WILL BE SENDING OUT A PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT LATER THIS MORNING
PROVIDING THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.  A 1040 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING SOUTH ONTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE FRIGID...IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS AS OF 09Z
RANGED FROM 20 TO 26 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY.

KUEX INDICATES A FEW RADAR RETURNS AND INCLUDED A FLURRY MENTION
INTO THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RRQ OF JET
STREAK.  HAVE MAINTAINED FLURRY MENTION INTO EARLY AFTN ACROSS NC
KANSAS AS TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS
KS TODAY. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOT LOOKING FOR MORE THAN FLURRIES
ATTM.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS TODAY
WITH THE ARCTIC RIDGE IN PLACE AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TO
EASTERN NEB/KS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND THE COLDEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN
OUR EAST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.  WITH SUB ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WIND CHILL VALUES AGAIN WILL BE NEAR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS ALTHOUGH WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND AND PASSING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE MOST ORGANIZED WAVES ARE FORECAST OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ALL MODELS. OF COURSE THERE ARE THE NORMAL SUBTLE TIMING
AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

IN GENERAL..ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SPECIFICALLY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DECENT DYNAMICS AND SOME MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE
TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE FACT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING VS. A MATURE SYSTEM AS IT
PROPAGATES OVER THE AREA MEANS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE LEAN SIDE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...THURSDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 50...OR
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MOST PLACES.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN KEEP AMOUNTS ON
THE LOW SIDE. CLOUDS A WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOTHING
LIKE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR. DRIER AIR IS ERODING THE 5K FT STRATUS FROM
THE NE. EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AT GRI WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ONLY
TO REVEAL BKN 9K FT CIGS AND 20K FT OVC. N WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR AND BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BUT ORGANIZE FROM THE S AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON MORNING: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS MOVING IN AND CASCADING
DOWNWARD WITH OTHER MID-LEVEL LAYERS OF ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS.
RUNWAYS WILL NEED TO CHANGE AS WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.

VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS TODAY:

GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN 1960 (TIED)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (TIED)

* BOTH OF THESE RECORDS CAN BE BROKEN IF TEMPS DROP BELOW -5F
  BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

VULNERABLE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY:

GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)

VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR TOMORROW 3/3:

GRAND ISLAND: -16 IN 1960
HASTINGS: -10 IN 1960


ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:

GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB