Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 142326
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR
HAS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW IS
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY STARTS TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE THE AREA TO FIRST SEE A CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN THE FAR NORTHWEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SLEET TO START WITH THEN CHANGE
TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY MORNING THE SNOW
AND SLEET WILL HAVE PROGRESSED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

ON MONDAY THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MOST OF THE DAY. GRADUALLY THE RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

THE MOST SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM GREELEY TO LEXINGTON NEBRASKA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THAT AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME BLOWING SNOW AROUND WITH THE STRONG WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE LOOKING UNSETTLED IN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE EXTENDED
MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVES.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO ILLINOIS.  A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER/DECEMBER.  MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS COLDER THAN SOUTHERN AREAS.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH LIGHT WINDS OR
LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W/E TOWARD DAYBREAK.  HAVE SOME
CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE NAM
VSBY PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WHEREAS THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MORE OF STRATUS/LOW CIGS THAN LOW VSBYS.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW BEFORE INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE BETTER
CHCS FAVORING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES CARRY
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS ON TIMING...STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF WAVES...THEN NEXT
WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY ATTM.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTER
PERIODS...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM THE EXTENDED INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CAN NOW BE EXPECTED TO START THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW...IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. THIS SECOND ROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF AND
MOVE EAST OF KEAR AND KGRI BY MIDDAY MONDAY. STRATUS...WITH A
CEILING NEAR 500FT AGL...IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT BOTH TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AND MORE SO
INTO THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WIND WILL
ALSO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BECOMING SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 20KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30KTS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN
BR OR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW THE VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
FARTHER THAN 5 OR 6SM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
     FOR NEZ039-040-046-060.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT



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