Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 200900
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
400 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The upper level low will track across Nebraska today and into
northwest Iowa by tonight. Rain showers may remain fairly
prevalent this morning especially across northern and western
zones with gradual decreasing precipitation trends as we head
through the day.

Precipitation type...We may be close to seeing a few snowflakes
around daybreak in our northwestern zones as temperatures fall
into the 38-41 range in places like Ord and Lexington. However,
believe surface temperatures will remain just warm enough to keep
the precipitation type all rain for our entire forecast area.

Tonight...Forecast models are in good agreement that we will begin
to see a clearing trend this evening and should be mostly clear by
Sunday morning as a sfc high settles in across the region. Cool
air will be in place right behind the departing storm system
tonight and with mostly clear skies and light winds expect some
areas of frost over northwestern zones. The significant amount of
recent moisture may help to keep dewpoints up and thus
temperatures up a bit. Forecast models are in fairly good
agreement that we should see lows in the mid 30s across our
northwest zones. With light winds and clear skies that usually
translates in at least some areas of frost particularly in low
lying rural areas such as river valleys. This will not be a hard
freeze, but rather just a fairly brief period of frost for areas
that see frost.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

After a chilly start to the day on Sunday, temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s by the afternoon under
partly cloudy skies.

Slight chances for rain return to the forecast for late overnight
Sunday into Monday morning associated with some weak convergence at
850mb. By Monday afternoon, we will see more of an influence from a
shortwave pivoting around the main upper level low located over the
Great Lakes. Coupled with MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, a few strong
storms are possible, especially in the vicinity of a stalled front
that models are currently depicting in the southeastern part of the
CWA.

The aforementioned shortwave will continue to deepen across the area
on Tuesday, although any appreciable instability and moisture should
have been pushed south of the area. Therefore, I`m expecting just a
few light showers.

After that, it looks like we will get a couple days of quiet
northerly flow and increasing ridging on Wednesday and Thursday,
before a shortwave brings us another chance for rain and
thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Poor aviation weather conditions are expected through early this
morning with gradual improvement expected by mid to late morning.
Will see numerous hours of IFR ceilings and may at times fall into
LIFR Ceilings. The visibility may also be lower at times but more
in the MVFR range. The wind will gradually transition from
northeast to northwest as the sfc low tracks off to our southeast.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ039-040-046-
     047-060-061-072>074.

KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely


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