National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGID 020536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1136 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE FCST AREA. WE WILL
LOSE THE MID CLOUDS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...LEAVING JUST CIRRUS.
OVERALL EXPECT A FAIRLY CLOUDY NIGHT. WE HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY
SEEN THE LOWS FOR THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 3-5F. ALSO
INCREASED SKYCOVER TO CLOUDY OR M/CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR
PROFILER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY/ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
SLIDE THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS A WEAK ONE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MN/WI SOUTHWEST INTO NRN TX...WHILE A TROUGH AXIS
LIES JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE
REMAINED ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SOUTHERLY...WITH A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH SIT
CLOSER TO THAT SFC BOUNDARY. WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND EXTRA CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE NOT
REACHED AS HIGH...AND CURRENTLY SIT IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE LIFT THE
FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE. MAIN CHANGES OCCUR AT THE SFC/LOWER
LEVELS...WITH THAT ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. BY 12Z MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81
CORRIDOR...BRINGING ALONG A SWITCH TO WESTERLY WINDS. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WESTERLY...THANKS TO
THE SFC LOW SET UP TO THE N/NW OF THE CWA. ALONG WITH THE SWITCH
IN WINDS...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE COMBO OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASED DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FELT INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...WITH UPPER 50S
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. ENJOY
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
MID- WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE
DIFFICULT.

WE BEGIN WITH MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT WARMER
WITH EACH RUN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS NORMALLY WOULD BE
REASONABLE JUST AHEAD OF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE
COLD FRONT TRENDING FASTER...THE ARRIVAL COULD BE AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...SO TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
TAD TRICKY FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST WHICH IS BRINGING IN
ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS QUITE A DISPARITY OF SOLUTIONS FOR
HIGHS...WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES BELOW THE GFS
GUIDANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY BRINGING THE ARCTIC AIR
FASTER AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING
COLDER...THEREFORE I AM FAVORING A COOLER SOLUTION. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF CAME IN WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT THIS SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER. WIND FROM THE NORTH STILL LOOKS STRONG BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND HEIGHT RISES.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE TRENDING COLDER AS COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FASTER. TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN TRENDING A BIT
COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
ENTRENCHED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW
NORMAL FOR A GOOD WHILE. THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
SNOW/FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRATUS LAYER AROUND. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL STRATUS USUALLY ADDS
UP TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF FLURRIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...TOOK OUT FLURRIES/SNOW AS WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL OF
CHANCES OF SNOW. TIMING IS DIFFICULT AS IMPULSES ARE RELATIVELY
SMALL AMPLITUDE...BUT DOING MY BEST AT TRYING TO TIME THINGS. WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

AS THE CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COUPLE OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ONE WILL BE TOWARD THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOR NOW IT
APPEARS IT WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH NOT TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE OTHER IMPULSE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG SNOW WITH
EITHER OF THESE IMPULSES. IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME AID
TO LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMIC
INFLUENCES AS WELL. THE BIG STORY...HOWEVER...WILL BE HOW COLD IT
WILL BE. TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE TEENS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE THE LOWER 20S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WOULD BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT THRU 09Z
THEN CIGS LIFTING. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW.

MON: VFR CIRRUS CIGS AROUND 25K FT WITH A FEW SKIFFS OF MID-LEVEL
ALTOCU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W AROUND 10 KTS.

MON EVE: VFR BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THAT MID-LEVEL CIGS
DEVELOP AROUND 13K FT. THIS LAYER MAY END UP SCT IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. WINDS BACK TO SW BELOW 10 KTS.

CIG CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WIND CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WX CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB