Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 131744
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A cold front is slowly working through the forecast area this
morning, currently stretching from Concordia to north of Hays.
Will be watching for some fog development in next couple areas
potentially along the frontal boundary. However, the front should
continue a slow progression south with surface pressure rises
working through the area. Those rises have kicked overnight winds
up into the 15-25 mph range with higher gusts in some areas before
settling down. Forecast reflects the gustiness of winds early
today.

Satellite is now showing pretty quick development of a mid-level
cloud deck as a H250 jet works by the northwest. These clouds
should continue to expand and be a major player with today`s high
temperatures, which will be notably cooler than Thursday. Have
continued the sprinkles. Although the location and expanse of any
sprinkles is a bit diffuse even just a few hours prior, the timing
of morning hours only in south central Nebraska looks on track.
No measurable rain is expected in general and any moisture which
falls should not impact the Nebraska State Softball Championships
just down the road to any major degree.

Skies may show some clearing later this afternoon as winds drop
off as well. The evening looks quiet for high school football but
developing low level jet will feed moisture into/over the stalled
front in northern Kansas. This will lead to late night showers
and some thunderstorms, which should develop pretty quickly around
or right after midnight and lift northeast. Model precipitation
focuses on areas southeast of a York to Osborne line mainly, with
rain amounts of 0.10" to 0.50" overall through Saturday afternoon.
While it may precipitate to some degree further west, amounts
will be very light and maybe not even measurable. Finally, one
note to Saturday is a rapid increase in wind speed by mid/late
afternoon from west to east. Strong pressure rises and downward
momentum transfer could result in 40 mph wind gusts from the
west/northwest, especially west of Highway 281 after 3 pm. So the
afternoon may start pretty innocuous, but will end on a much,
much winder note.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The long term is essentially dry. After a brisk Saturday evening,
temperatures start below normal with a cool morning of 30s Sunday
followed by a sunny afternoon, although high temperatures will be
below normal. After Sunday, rising upper level heights/ridging is
the story through at least Thursday. Expect mild mid-October days
with highs averaging in the lower 70s and lows in the 40s. The
dry conditions should allow for a delayed harvest to begin in
earnest and continue through the week. We probably have to look
at next weekend before seeing much chance at measurable rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

VFR conditions continue until this evening before conditions
deteriorate. Stratus will move back north and impact the
terminals with MVFR ceilings that will decrease to IFR early in
the morning. Winds will be light and easterly throughout the
period. There is a chance for some patchy fog as well during the
overnight hours, but the ceilings will have more of an impact on
flight conditions than visibilities. Just beyond this 24 time
period a strong cold front will move through the region which will
switch winds to the northwest and be gusty. Sustained speeds
between 20 to 25kts and gusts between 30-40 kts is possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
LONG TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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