Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALOFT: NW FLOW PREVAILS THRU TONIGHT. ONE SHORTWAVE TROF AND JET
STREAK WILL MISS TO THE NE OF THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE DIVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WILL BE MOVING
INTO MT/ND BY DAYBREAK WED.

SURFACE: DEEP LOW PRES WAS OVER ONTARIO THIS AM. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS LOW WAS DRAGGING DOWNSLOPE WARMED AIR SE INTO THE FCST
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DROP S...
ENTERING THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM NW-
SE ACROSS NEB AS A WEAK CLIPPER SLIDES SE ALONG IT. MOST MODELS
ARE CLUSTERED AROUND THE SREF MEAN WHICH HAS THE LOW OVER THE
SANDHILLS BY DAYBREAK WED. INTERESTINGLY... THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MORE NEAR OGA AT 12Z.

TODAY: THE WARMEST DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS THE FCST
AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR. OVERALL...SUNNY. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NICE. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY BEFORE NOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES INTO A LOW-LVL WIND MAX.

USED THE REGIONAL GEM FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING
THE BEST OVER THE PAST WEEK ON DAY 1. THIS INCREASED HIGHS AS MUCH
AS 4F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.

TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. TEMPS WERE INCREASED 3-6F ABOVE THE
PREVIOUS FCST. WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL DROP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
...INCOMING CLOUDS WILL ARREST THE FALL AND MAY ACTUALLY NUDGE
TEMPS UPWARD.

AFTER IN-HOUSE COORDINATION...DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AFTER 3 AM OVER THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA /MAINLY N OF NEB HWY 92/. MOST MODELS KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP
N OF THE FCST AREA THRU DAYBREAK AND EVEN THE OUTLIERS THAT DO
BRING IN .01" QPF LOOK OVERDONE WITH CLOUD BASES NO LOWER THAN 6K
FT. PLAYED IT AS TRACE AMOUNTS /FLURRIES OR FRZG DRIZZLE/. WHILE
PRECIP ITSELF IS DOUBTFUL...WE DO HAVE TEMPS FCST SLIGHTLY BELOW
FRZG. WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE FRZG SPRINKLES IN THE FCST...
BUT WE DO NOT HAVE THAT OPTION. SO IT`S FRZG DRIZZLE. WHILE NOT
METEOROLOGICALLY CORRECT...THIS DOES CONVEY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TRACE AMTS OF ICE. THE MAIN THING TO EMPHASIZE IS THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIP OCCURRING AT ALL IS VERY VERY LOW.

850-700 MB THICKNESS FROM THE NAM/GFS/EC SUGGEST A WARM NOSE AND
A LOW-LVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THRU. FCST SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM. JUST BELIEVE THE ODDS OF SFC TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FRZG
ARE LOW. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS IF ANYTHING OCCURS AT ALL IT WILL
BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

THE GFS BEING FURTHER W DOES FACTOR INTO THIS FCST. ITS THERMAL
PROFILE IS COLDER AND WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THE ONSET..."IF"
PRECIP WOULD FALL PRIOR TO 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A TOUGH CALL FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL AROUND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO GOING TO BE CHALLENGING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING THROUGH DURING
THE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS IS A TOUGH
CALL ON HOW SOON THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...BUT FOR NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT MOST OF THE CWA COULD BE A CANDIDATE FOR PLAIN RAIN ALONG WITH
SNOW. I GENERALLY CUT BACK ON CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONTINUING THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS...WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES REMAINING IN OUR NORTHEAST/EAST.

THE FAR SOUTH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...WE COULD EVEN GET SOME
SNOWFLAKES AT THESE TEMPERATURES. OUR FAR NORTHEAST COULD STAY SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE ONE CAVEAT IS EARLY MORNING AS SOUNDINGS
FORECAST A NOSE OF WARM AIR TO BRIEFLY GIVE US SOME POTENTIAL
TROUBLE AS OUR TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WARM
NOSE COOLS OFF...LIMITING OUR PRECIPITATION TYPES TO RAIN OR SNOW
AFTER 15Z. FOR NOW...KEPT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
(READ FREEZING SPRINKLES) AND FLURRIES. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MEAGER TO NOTHING AS MOST OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST
OF ANY SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THE NAM
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FLURRY ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO OVERNIGHT. I CUT BACK ON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRONOUNCED AND WENT WITH THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONSRAW WIND GUSTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GIVING US
A FEW MORE MPH COMPARED TO THE STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. WIND CHILLS
LOOK LIKE THEY CAN EASILY FALL INTO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN EXTENSIVE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 1040 MB PLUS. THURSDAY WILL
ONLY EEK OUT TEENS FOR HIGHS TO MAYBE NEAR 20 FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STIFF NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COLD AS WIND
CHILLS ON THURSDAY WILL BARELY RISE ABOVE ZERO...IF AT ALL.

I DID TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS TRENDS TAKE ANYTHING WITH POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND WILL CAUSE A TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...PUTTING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY GIVES US OUR BEST SHOT AT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH AS ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE HOLDS FIRM. WENT WITH CONSRAW
HIGHS FOR ALL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM...AS IT TYPICALLY DOES THE BEST
WHEN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN. HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BY ANY
MORE THAN THE 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SPECIFIED UNTIL WE GET WITHIN 72 HOURS OF THE EVENT...BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND WINTER
SYSTEM...BUT AGAIN STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. A SFC TROF WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS IN
THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH A WSHFT FROM SW TO WNW. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND THIS TIME
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS HINGES ON THIS. MENTION OF LLWS WAS
MAINTAINED IN THIS SET OF TAFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
FOR WINDS/LLWS. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

TUE: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE TROF AND GRADUALLY
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. LLWS ENDS 15Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN INCREASING ALTOCU AROUND 13K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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