Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 172330
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Scattered mid and high level clouds will gradually diminish this
evening into tonight as an upper level wave passes to the northeast
of the area. Winds will remain out of the north through the
overnight before gradually shifting to the southeast and eventually
to the south tomorrow morning as surface high pressure moves
eastward.

Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today for most of the
area. The main threat will once again be near-critical fire
weather conditions. South winds tomorrow afternoon will be breezy,
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph west of Highway 281. The good news is
that the southerly flow should also advect enough moisture back
into the area to keep relative humidity values in the 20s and just
short of warning criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Strong warm air advection will promote increased cloud cover Sunday
morning, gradually decreasing into the afternoon. Meanwhile the
ridge axis be moving overhead, pushing high temperatures into the
80s for most of the region. Given the cloud cover there is still
some uncertainty to how quickly we warm up, especially along Highway
81, so I left high temperatures in the upper 70s in that region.

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night, which,
combined with a shift back to northwesterly flow aloft, will drop
temperatures back to slightly more seasonable levels on Monday and
into next week.

A weak wave will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday,
bringing the first of several precipitation chances. Precipitation
is expected to start out as rain, although there is a chance that
it changes over to snow as temperatures fall early Tuesday
morning. That said, I don`t think we will see much, if any, snow
accumulation due to marginal air temperatures and warm ground
temperatures.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring another slight chance of
rain and snow to the area. The 12Z GEFS ensembles actually have
pretty low precipitation probabilities for this timeframe, but given
the uncertainty, I maintained the PoPs from the model consensus.

A more significant storm system is forecast to move out of the
southwest and impact the area beginning early Thursday morning.
This has the potential to be our first significant rain-producer
in quite some time, which would be very welcome given the
relatively dry conditions as of late. Solutions still a little
variable, but it appears that thunderstorms are a definite
possibility during the day on Thursday. Last several models have
been indicating several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, so I included a
slight chance of thunder across the entire CWA Thursday afternoon.
As mentioned in previous discussions, there are still a multitude
of details that still need to be worked out with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Surface high pressure is
building into eastern Nebraska tonight and will slide slowly
eastward throughout the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and
vary from the north to the southeast through much of the period.
Southerly winds will increase during the afternoon hours from west
to east and could be breezy at both terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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