Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 100530
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1230 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO CANCEL THE RED
FLAG WARNING A LITTLE EARLY AS LATEST OBS ARE INDICATING
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE POINT THAT A RED FLAG WARNING IS
NO LONGER JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VERY WARM SPRING DAY RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S AND 80S...AND EVEN A 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURE ISN/T OUT OF
THE QUESTION IN ROOKS/OSBORNE COUNTIES GIVEN HILL CITY IS 86 DEGREES
AT 2 PM!

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM
THIS EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE BONE DRY
WITH MANY LOCATIONS SUB 20%. BELIEVE WE WILL DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER AS
MID/LATE AFTERNOON MIXING MAXIMIZES. WINDS HAVE BEEN A CHALLENGE FOR
REACHING SOLID RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING
COINCIDES WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AS SEEN JUST TO OUR WEST.
THAT TYPE OF GUSTINESS SHOULD INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER FOR 3 HOURS OR SO.

ASIDE FROM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS COLD
FRONT SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE SOUTHERN
AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 3-
5MB/3HRS WILL TEAM WITH TIGHT POST FRONTAL GRADIENT TO PUSH NORTH
WINDS INTO THE BREEZY/BRISK CATEGORY FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS AFTER THE F
FRONT PASSES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BACKED OFF ON THOSE JUST
A BIT ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
NIGHT EARLY THURSDAY.

THOUGH A BIT BREEZY DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
DROP WINDS OFF DRAMATICALLY AND QUICKLY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...IT WILL BE A
PRETTY NICE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NOT BAD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIOUS RAIN
AND/OR SNOW CHANCES...AS WELL AS A VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES.

A CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
LEAVING THE PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS SUCH...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CREATING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS SPED UP THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE JUST SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION LINGERING FROM
BEAVER CITY TO FULLERTON NEBRASKA BY ABOUT 18Z. THE FRONT SLOWS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARS THE AREA BEFORE 6Z. WHILE MUCH OF
THE AREA STANDS A CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...SOME AREAS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST...COULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE MUCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT 18Z TO 2100 J/KG AT 0Z WITH
MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE 0 TO 6 KM LAYER.
HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALSO FAIRLY HIGH NEAR 7 TO 8 K/CM. AT
LEAST THE GFS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS OF NEAR 60 DEGREES SHIFTING INTO
THAYER AND NUCKOLLS COUNTIES...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY
MORE MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
COME INTO QUESTION AS TO EXTENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION BY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...AND
BRING COLDER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY BE EARLY ON IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY WARM UP
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT WITH CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BEFORE DWINDLING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX BY SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR WINTER STORM...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS DRY...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S BY
MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...BDS
AVIATION...JCB



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