Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250927
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
427 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE POSSIBILITY OF YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ELEVATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE OVER KANSAS. AT 4 AM...THERE WAS GOOD CLOUD
TOP COOLING OVER DECATUR AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND THESE
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS SHOWING
EXPANDING THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HWY 281 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS EXPANDING AREA OF MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAY HAVOC ON
OUR FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT
HEATING AND THUS HAVE KNOCKED HIGHS DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ADDITION...MORNING STORMS AND CLOUDS WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN LESS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THUS MAKE
CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE.

SEVERE THREAT....MUCAPE VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS
MORNING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS.
THEREFORE...A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
GREATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN EASTERLY
SFC WIND AND MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL SEE
STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS NORTH OF THAT SFC BOUNDARY
WILL ALLOW FOR UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES FOR JULY. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KTS AND THE 0-1 LOW LEVEL BULK
SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KTS RANGE. MOST MODELS HAVE
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE
TOO HIGH IF WE END UP SEEING A LOT OF MORNING CONVECTION AROUND
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AS ALSO NOTED
BY THE CURVED HODOGRAPHS IS NOTEWORTHY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST
A MENTION OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AFD AND IN OUR HWO DESPITE
IT BEING JULY. CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON IF MORNING CONVECTION DOES NOT MESS UP THE ENVIRONMENT
TOO MUCH.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PRESSING EAST SOUTHEAST AND EXITING OUR
CWA BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ALOFT: A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS RETROGRADING INTO THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE CNTRL USA THIS MONTH
WILL SHIFT INTO THE WRN USA WITH A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NEB/KS
WAS LOSING ITS DEFINITION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TSTM OUTFLOWS.
THIS WILL CONT TO OCCUR UNTIL A FAIRLY STRONG COOL FRONT MOVES THRU
TUE. HIGH PRES WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WED-FRI.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE AND THEN TURN A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL WED-FRI.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: DRY DURING THE DAY...BUT SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN OUT TO
THE W AND PROBABLY MOVE IN AS AN MCS SUN NIGHT...MAINTAINED BY THE
LOW-LVL HET.

MON: SOME REMNANTS OF SUN NIGHTS TSTMS MIGHT LINGER INTO THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...DECREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY AS S-SE WINDS GUST
25-35 MPH. UNSURE ABOUT AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. THE 00Z/06Z NAM
RUNS ARE ON THEIR OWN WITH TSTM POTENTIAL N OF I-80. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME TSTMS MOVING IN FROM THE W MON NIGHT.

TUE: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE GEM/GFS/EC ARE
NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT TSTM POTENTIAL UNTIL TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING/LIFT REMAINING WELL N OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...EXPECT ONLY A STORM OR TWO LATE AFTERNOON.

AFTER DARK...THE INCREASING DEPTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD FORCE PARCELS
THRU THE CAP TO THE LFC...WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE.

WED: THE COOLER AIR MASS COULD COMBINE WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH
CLOUD COVER TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN. 77-82F WILL BE A NICE REPRIEVE FROM
THE RECENT HEAT.

THU-FRI: PROBABLY DRY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR
UPSLOPE TSTMS TO DEVELOP TO THE W AND PROPAGATE E INTO THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR NOW IN THE KGRI AND KEAR AREA.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...BUT COULD ALSO BE VARIABLE OUT OF
OTHER DIRECTIONS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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