Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041021
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
421 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING SHARPER NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE
BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...AND AHEAD OF BROAD RIDGING IN THE
WEST.  SEEING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLIDE IN FROM THE
NW...OTHERWISE SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE SFC...A
WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE IS KEEPING WRLY WINDS FOR MOST NEAR/UNDER 10
MPH. TEMPS AS OF 3 AM RANGING FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS.

LOOKING AT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE NWRLY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING
PUSHED EAST BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
EXPECTING THOSE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SFC...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE N/NE...KEEPING THOSE
WRLY WINDS IN PLACE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TOPPING
OUT BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THINGS. SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT AM HESITANT TO MATCH THEM WITH THIS MUCH
SNOW ON THE GROUND. GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS
HIGHS...WITH THE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 FOR MOST OF THE
CWA.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR MOST. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
CONTINUING TO GET PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AHEAD
OF THE DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB/KS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOW GOING FOR NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TO AMOUNT TO MUCH THROUGH
12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

WE START OFF FRIDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTER
WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL. BEHIND THE WAVE...WE GET STARTED ON A
MODEST WARMING TREND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. I REALLY LIKE NAM12 TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...AND FOR
ONCE...THE SOLID SNOW FIELD ADVERTISED BY THE NAM12 MAKES A LOT OF
SENSE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. THIS SNOW IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE FAST.

EXPECT CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GIVING US A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTH. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT I WAS
CAUTIOUS NOT TO GET TO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE SNOW FIELD IS
SO DEEP THAT IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO ERODE...SO THIS WILL WORK
TO TAMP DOWN TEMPERATURES...DESPITE SIGNS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HIGHS BY SUNDAY COULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S DESPITE THE
SNOW...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SEND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH LITTLE OVERALL IN THE WAY OF SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS W/NWRLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP



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