Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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415
FXUS63 KGID 160525
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1125 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

The main forecast concern through Friday is the temperatures.
Upper level ridging will continue to build in until a wave moves
through mid-day Friday. West and southwesterly winds tomorrow will
allow temperatures to soar. Highs are expected in the upper 60s
and low 70s. Records at Grand Island and Hastings are in jeopardy.
Please see the climate section for details on the records. The
next upper wave will move through Friday during the afternoon,
causing a front to move through...but it will not amount to
much...dry and slightly cooler. Lows tonight and Thursday night
will be in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

The main forecast concern in the long term is the chance for
rain/isolated thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. The upper
level system that is expected to move through on Friday will
slowly exit to the east but another system is on its toes. This
system is currently expected to enter the CONUS along the southern CA/Baja,
Mexico coast on Saturday night and move eastward. There are
discrepancies among the guidance with the GFS/ECMWF keeping the
main energy tracking southward across Texas while the Canadian
lifts much of the energy northward into the Central Plains. The
GFS/EMCWF have less chances for precip than the Canadian, but a
blend of the guidance yields the chance for rain from Sunday night
through Monday. There is even a small chance for thunder with a
very small amount of elevated instability Sunday night into Monday
morning. Confidence with the precip chances with this system are
medium due to the discrepancies...expect the overall evolution to
change. Otherwise the forecast is dry and warm.

High temperatures through the extended are generally in the 60s,
which is nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Quiet and VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The
only concern is marginal LLWS now through early morning. Stronger
winds aloft are expected gradually shift eastward and decrease by
around 11Z. Winds this afternoon will be fairly light, slowly
shifting from northwest to southwest.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Records for February 16th and 17th for Grand Island and Hastings

February 16th Records
Grand Island.....73 degrees in 1921
Hastings.........69 degrees in 1981

February 17th Records
Grand Island.....71 degrees in 1981 & 1970
Hastings.........74 degrees in 1981

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Mangels
CLIMATE...Billings Wright



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