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000
FXUS63 KGID 150525
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
TO BETTER DEPICT CURRENT IR SATELLITE. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE NEEDED AS THE NGT PROGRESSES AS CLOUDS HAVE A GENERAL THINNING
TREND THAT WILL NOT BE EASY TO FORESEE MUCH BEYOND A COUPLE HRS.
WE ARE NOTING NEW TSTMS GOING UP JUST W OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW
THE FCST IS DRY THE REST OF TNGT AND THE 03Z HRRR KEEPS S-CNTRL
NEB DRY. HOWEVER...WE/VE ALSO SEEN COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER NRN KS
AND THE HRRR DOES DVLP SOME SHWRS. FOR NOW WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED HEATBURSTS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...ALONG WITH DECREASING DIABATIC
HEATING...IS ALLOWING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CLIMB ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WIND IS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AS A RESULT...THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT IS SLICING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH CONVECTION ALREADY TRYING TO FIRE
ALONG IT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING SCENARIO. THIS MEANS THAT THE LIKELY OUTCOME
WILL BE LOW PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WIND FROM CONVECTION. SHEAR IS
WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO ALL ONE WOULD EXPECT IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE INVERTED V SOUNDING SIGNATURE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT ANY INSTABILITY
WILL WANE BY MID EVENING...SO CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND DIE
OUT. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AT
THE EARLIEST...AND WOULD PROBABLY ONLY AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
CWA...SO KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTH AND VERY LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...SO INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT PERHAPS ORD...WHICH STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE OF BEING IN COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIODS WILL CENTER AROUND
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MIGHT END UP
BEING SEVERE. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL DAYS LIKELY REMAIN TOO CAPPED.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED
MOSTLY CUT OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO REGION
WILL FINALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY LIFT NORTH BEFORE POSSIBLY WASHING OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WELL THURSDAY
MORNING. SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATES AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THEREFORE...THREW IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY MORNING...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN
DRY DURING THAT 6 HOUR PERIOD.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. THERE
IS ALSO DECENT THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 1400
J/KG...WHILE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 6 CELSIUS.
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PROVIDING A MORE THAN LIKELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLOW DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS...SUCH AS THE NAM SOLUTION TRY TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHTER SHOWERS POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AROUND. DECIDED TO LEAVE IN
SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGAN TO DEGRADE THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE....DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES....COMBINED WITH DECENT THETA E ADVECTION
WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROBABLY THE BEST
IN THE LONG TERM...WITH 4500 TO 5000 J/KG NOSING INTO OUR AREA.
STILL 700 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12 CELSIUS INDICATES
AT LEAST SOME CAP LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 0 TO 6 KM BULK
SHEAR VECTORS ARE ALSO NOT TOO HIGH...WITH ABOUT 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS
THE REGION. EVEN STILL...THINKING THAT SATURDAY IS LIKELY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE DURING THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH...MODELS REMAIN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THIS GIVEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...WHILE THE GFS
HAS TENDED TO BECOME CLOSED DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR CWA FROM RUN TO RUN.
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS.
MAINLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO
REFLECT CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

REST OF TNGT: VFR WITH SCT-BKN 25K FT CIRRUS. NE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS. SOME MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE.

WED: VFR WITH SCT MID-LVL CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. ENE WINDS 10-15 KTS.

WED NGT THRU 06Z: VFR CIRRUS CIGS. ENE WINDS SETTLE AROUND 5 KTS.

CIG CONFIDENCE: HIGH
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WIND CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WX CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB