Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 062336
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
FRONT WEAKENING THE LOCATION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO SHOW FOR SURE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE QUESTION
REMAINS JUST WHEN THEY WILL START. MODELS HAVE ANYTHING FROM LATE
AFTERNOON UNTIL MID EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
MOVE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING THEN THERE IS A BREAK LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS THOUGH
BRING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THROUGH NEBRASKA AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE LOW POPS THERE FOR LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE WAVE
IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NORTH ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

CHANGES TO FCST REASONING ARE MINIMAL FROM YESTERDAY.

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT SUN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
USA AND A TROF OVER THE E. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY EARLY
THIS WEEK...EASE OFF MID-LATE WEEK...AND THEN REAMPLIFY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SERIOUS SUMMER
HEAT AND SPELLS OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY "COOLER" THAN NORMAL BUT STILL
VERY VERY NICE SUMMER WX. WE ARE ONLY TALKING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
80S AND 90S/100S.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT DROPPING S THRU THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH ITS SOUTHERNMOST LATITUDE WED...OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. COMFORTABLE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE AND
WILL BE REPLACED WED AS REINFORCING COOL FRONT DROPS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SRN PLAINS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. FRI BACK INTO THE STEAMY WARM SECTOR. THE
NEXT COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT OR SAT. THERE IS
SOME CONFLICT ON ITS TIMING...BUT COOLER HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD IN
BY SUN.

HAZARDS: SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD BE ON-GOING MON EVE. THEN THERE IS MORE
TSTM POTENTIAL WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT POSSIBLE THREATS NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON NIGHT: SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE ON-GOING AND THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A NICE SPIKE IN THE K-INDEX. STORMS SHOULD BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MERGING INTO A LINE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST 40
KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. HIGH SURFACE
TEMP/DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL COMBINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
BOWING STRUCTURES TO RESULT IN A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.

FORWARD CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SE LINE MOVEMENT AROUND 25-30 KTS.
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION COULD ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL...
WITH FASTER PROPAGATION SPEEDS THAN THIS.

GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE STORMS DEPART.

TUE: REFRESHINGLY MORE COMFORTABLE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY COOL TO
ME. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF EC/GEM/GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPS. 78-87F...COOLEST N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

WED: MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK INTO THE REGION IN RETURN FLOW
...ESPECIALLY TO THE W OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. USED A SIMILAR BLEND
FOR HIGH TEMPS AS TUE. /81-89F/

CONFIDENCE: WED NIGHT THRU SUN CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY POTENTIAL
WET WX. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE VORT MAXIMA /SOME CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED/ WILL BE ORBITING THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. THERE IS NO WAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THEM THIS FAR OUT. SUFFICE TO SAY FORCING FOR TSTMS
WILL BE SUBTLE AND WEAK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1 OR 2 MCS/S TO
ROLL THRU HERE WHICH WOULD BE WELCOMED FOR THE RAIN.

WED NIGHT: LLJ DEVELOPS AND COULD SEE SPOTTY SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP AS
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION LEADS TO POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION. NOT
SEEING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ANY GOOD RAINFALL...BUT EC/GFS
ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES HAVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS.

THU-THU NIGHT: WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING COULD BE COMPLICATED BY
TSTM ACTIVITY. THE EC/GFS ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES OFFER ANOTHER
RELATIVE MAXIMUM.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HIGH TEMPS THU. EXTENSIVE WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY IN HIGHS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

FRI: LOOKS HOT/CAPPED AND DRY FOR NOW.

FRI NIGHT: THE NEXT COOL FRONT EASES IN.

SAT-SUN: TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO EXTRACT ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A TSRA MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 07/20Z AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE TIME
BEING...COVERED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VCTS AND CB...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



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