Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 030910
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.

DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILING DURING THESE
FIRST 6 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF
THE TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MAINLY KEAR COULD CATCH
A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS LIGHT
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 25 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SO
WILL OMIT A FORMAL MENTION. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 12KT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST
12 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST" BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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