Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 202356

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Cloud cover this morning helped to suppress temperatures a few
degrees through around noon...with temperatures since starting to
rebound and increase fairly rapidly as cloud cover has thinned
the past few hours. As a result...another hot and humid afternoon
is being observed across much of the local area at this time with
most locations seeing heat index readings between 95 and 105 as
of 3 PM CDT.

These strong temperature readings will likely rise a few more
degrees before peaking over the next couple of hours and a heat
advisory or heat warning remains in effect for the entire forecast
area through the early evening hours tomorrow. This string of
extremely hot days will likely then end tomorrow night when a
cold front is forecast to finally bring some mild relief to the
region. With this frontal boundary currently just to the north of
the local area...expect to see the focus of any afternoon shower
and thunderstorm development to remain primarily to our north as
we near convective temperatures.

Later tonight...expect the potential for additional shower and
thunderstorm development primarily north of I-80 as the low level
jet helps increase storm coverage overnight. Model data is not in
good agreement with thunderstorm development tonight...but if
storms are able to develop...some severe wind gusts will become
possible and a marginal risk for severe weather still exists
across the northern portions of the forecast area overnight.

For Friday...expect the cold front to sink further south and
become the focus once again for shower and thunderstorm
development by late afternoon. With the front expected to be just
north of I-80 tomorrow afternoon...the focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity will also likely be north of I-80...with a
few marginally severe thunderstorms once again being possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The large area of high pressure extending across the central
plains will give way to a cold front Friday night...with west
northwesterly flow persisting for several days before another
ridge of high pressure establishes itself across the local area by
the middle of next week. As a result...expect near to slightly
above normal temperatures to return over the upcoming
weekend...slowly rebounding back above normal late in the
extended periods. In addition...with a few weak disturbances
expected to brush the local area...there will likely be
intermittent chances for thunderstorms across portions of the
local area through early next week...although this is not a
particularly wet pattern setting up for the local area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

VFR conditions are currently expected through the TAF period. Any
thunderstorm development overnight looks to remain to the north
of the TAF sites. Will continue to monitor if trends change. A
strong south southwesterly low level jet will be in place again
tonight with LLWS possible from 5Z to 14Z. Looking ahead to
tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorm chances return toward the end the
TAF period but have held off on a VCTS mention until confidence
increases on when convection will initiate.


NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ064-076-077-

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ006-007-018-

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ005-017.



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