Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1129 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWINGS SHARP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES S/SW INTO ERN TX. RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE PAC NW
REGION. PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LOW LEVEL
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND...AFFECTING THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THANKS TO
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE ROCKIES.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE STARTING TO SEE WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED. 3 AM TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE WEST WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE EAST.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY...WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN...ALLOWING FOR THAT WRN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH
BECOMING A BIT MORE BROAD IN NATURE AND LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THAT
NEXT DISTURBANCE REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...THANKS TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS SLIDE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY /PARENT HIGH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA/...BRINGING MORE WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND GENERALLY
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECTING THE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY
IT WILL VACATE THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING IT WILL BE INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT
HAPPENS. IT WILL JUST BE NICE FOR MORE OF THE AREA TO SEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUN...BUT HOW MUCH WILL ALSO DEPEND ON MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE N/NW CAN WORK DOWN
HERE...SOMETHING THAT MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NEAST TO
LOWER 40S IN THE SW...WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT
STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THOSE W/SWRLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S CWA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
OVER THE ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS LATE SUNDAY...WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WILL BEGIN
PRESENTING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA...WITH THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SPREADING ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION ALSO MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA IS THEN EXPECTED TO PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING DURING THE DAY NEXT MONDAY
WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME NOTHING SUGGESTS WEATHER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE OF HIGH- IMPACT ACROSS OUR
AREA.

TAKING AN EVEN-BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENTS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.01-0.08" ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ~0.05" POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS PROVIDES SNOW-WATER RATIOS
GENERALLY IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TO START THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THESE RATIOS INCREASING INTO THE 12-18:1
RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA COULD
OBSERVE 0.5-1" OF SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH OUR
SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO PERHAPS AROUND AN
INCH. AN ADDITIONAL ~0.5" THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND MOVES EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...AN INCREASING BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ON
FRIDAY...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURFACE WIND OF
~15KTS...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS CLOSER TO 20KTS...COULD RESULT IN
PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW. GIVEN THIS...AND
THE FACT FRIDAY TIES INTO POTENTIAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL GO AHEAD
AND OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY FOR SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THE HWO FOR FRIDAY.

CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE A WARM DAY ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A NOTICEABLE
COOLING TREND STARTING ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS
IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 20S ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS THEN FALLING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS OF LESS THAN
12KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI


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