Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250534
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISIBILITIES AT A NUMBER OF SITES IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE...AND ALONG WITH WEBCAMS
AND REPORTS...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ARE EXPECTING MORE WESTERLY WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD
HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS...SO WILL ADJUST HEADLINES AS THAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS
ALSO NOTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. TWO AREAS OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ARE NOTED
AT THE SURFACE...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING
BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE LOWS AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
VARIABLE AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
CLEARING OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MOVING WELL INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SECOND SHORT
WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE TWO AREAS OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS
ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH TO CLEAR OUR AREA. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY...SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...COULD PROMOTE
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
THROUGH 00Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER
OF 100 TO MAYBE 200J/KG WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. AN OVERALL LACK
IN OMEGA AND POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD THEN PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...COULD THEN PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO
WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO WENT AHEAD WITH -RA
IN THE FORECAST.

A SUBTLE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT. THE SAME TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THIS IS COVERED IN GREATER DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE
RAIN AND NOT SNOW. THE CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.
AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF IN THE EVENING...THE RAIN WILL MIX
WITH AND COULD EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM ADVECTION BUILDING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS
THE WARM ADVECTION PUSHES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES COULD BE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST...THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL. FURTHER WEST WITH SUNSHINE
AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION THERE SHOULD BE WARMER TEMPERATURES.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW FAIRLY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BECAUSE THERE IS MORE WARM ADVECTION ON
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
COOLER AIR ACTUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT WITH CLOUD COVER
AND FOG. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF
SC NEB...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LEADING TO
FOG AND VISIBILITIES DOWN IN THE 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE RANGE. HAVE LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THAT WILL ACTUALLY LAST IS LOWER AT
EAR...WHICH SITS ON THE EDGE OF THAT STRATUS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE...WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH. ALONG WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A LACK IN DIABATIC HEATING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER REALLY
IMPEDED ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS CLEARING OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A MARKED INCREASE IN DIABATIC
HEATING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE STILL FORECAST FOR
OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEPTH/MIXING SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DECREASING DEW POINT VALUES
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THUS HELPING
PROMOTE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE 15-20% RANGE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY...TO PHILLIPSBURG AND OSBORNE. IN ADDITION
TO ALL THIS...GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH...WILL PROMOTE A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 17-21KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
...AS-IS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST GUIDANCE MAY BE A TOUCH HIGH ON THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FORECAST. THAT SAID...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH EVIDENCE AND
CONCERN THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY...TO PHILLIPSBURG AND OSBORNE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-085>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT


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