Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
345 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move through the
northwestern part of the forecast area. There are some outflow
boundaries that are drifting to the southeast from the earlier
thunderstorms, but the winds behind them are only around 25 mph.
Surface analysis shows a nearly stationary front just to the
northwest of the forecast area.

The showers and thunderstorms should gradually come to an end this
morning. The outflow boundary should dissipate with time. An upper
level wave will move into the area this afternoon. There could be a
few thunderstorms mainly in the north nearer to the front. A few of
the models try to start some thunderstorms in the southeast, but the
wave is stronger to the north of the forecast area. Another question
for the day is high temperatures. With the front to the north of the
forecast area, south winds and plenty of sunshine, expect that
temperatures will warm pretty well. Warmed things up a little for
today. The warmer temperatures and good winds will allow for much of
north central Kansas and the far southern counties in Nebraska to
have some near critical fire weather conditions.

The front that has been sitting just to the northwest of the
forecast area early this morning will start to move to the south as
a cold front tonight. Models have slightly different timing of the
front. The NAM is the slowest with the ECMWF the fastest. The
difference is minor and the front should make it through much of the
forecast area through the night. Another difference in the models is
that the ECMWF has more precipitation than the rest of the models.
Have kept a few thunderstorms mainly in the Nebraska portion of the
area during the evening and moving out during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Even with the front through the forecast area by mid day on
Saturday, the models try to develop a few thunderstorms in the north
on Saturday but the better chance will be in the east during the
afternoon. This could be a little further east or west depending on
when the thunderstorms develop and how far east the front is at that
time. The front does hang up just to the southeast of the forecast
area and with the front in the vicinity, there remains some chances
for thunderstorms Saturday night. Another upper level wave moves
into the area from the southwest on Sunday and there is a chance for
thunderstorms for much of the area.

The upper level wave strengthens for Sunday night and there is a
pretty good chance for some thunderstorms that linger into Monday
morning. There are a few areas that continue to have some low PoPs
for Monday night, but really expect that there will be little to no

Tuesday through Thursday the models have a few differences with the
GFS stronger with an upper level wave  that approaches Wednesday
into Thursday, while the ECMWF and Canadian are slower with the
wave. The ECMWF brings a cold front through on Wednesday, but the
others are different. By Thursday afternoon there is an upper level
wave that is approaching and the models do have some precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A frontal boundary across central NE will be the focus for
overnight convection. Only mentioned thunder as VCTS as do not
have high confidence if thunderstorms will impact TAF sites early
this morning. LLWS is another issue tonight and is evident on
Radar and the models are hinting at it also, so put it in for both
TAF sites.




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