Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141156
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
556 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Early this morning, a nearly washed out surface boundary is near
our CWA border, but a demarcation of lower temperatures is still
evident north of the boundary, but a big factor here is actually
more cirrus to the south, and less in the north, effectively
allowing more radiation in our north.

Upper level is quasi-stationary, but will tilt more to southwest
flow by tonight as a positively tilted mean longwave trough
develops in the western United States.

I increased temperatures for today to the 50s for the south
central Nebraska side of the CWA and 60s for much of the north
central Kansas counties. I did this in response of what happened
yesterday, which wound up being warmer than I had originally
thought. I am still going lower than MOS guidance, and I may very
well be too cool if we wind up getting more sunshine than sky
cover.

Tonight, the concern will turn to fog potential, after significant
snow-melt during the day and decreasing wind speeds tonight. This
will be focused more across central and eastern areas of the CWA
especially, but temperatures will be above normal, with lows in
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A long-awaited cold front will pass through Thursday, which will
give us cooler high temperatures in the 40s in south central
Nebraska to lower 50s in north central Kansas, but the much cooler
air arrive by Thursday night with lows in our northern CWA in the
single digits to teens for north central Kansas.

The cold air will stick around for Friday with highs in the upper
20s to mid 30s. This is a quick shot of cold air, and a quick
moderating to mild 40s and 50s for highs for the weekend is
expected, before a more substantial cold arctic intrusion takes
place for the next work week, with highs only in the 20s and 30s
for much of the area through the first half of the work week.

The pattern still looks dry for most of the forecast, except for
very small chances of snow associated with the arctic cold front
passage for late Sunday night into Monday for some of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 541 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conditions are forecast today and evening, but we could see
visibility decline after midnight as wind speed decreases along
with recently melted snow from the warmth of the day. I took it
down to MVFR, but there is some potential for even lower
visibility.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein



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