Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 041149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

OTHER THAN THE FINAL SEVERAL HOURS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL/FLURRY POTENTIAL WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A FAIRLY "STRAIGHTFORWARD" 24
HOURS FOR A CHANGE...AS THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
REMAINS VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME (DESPITE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING FLURRIES DEEMED NOT
WORTH MENTIONING). TEMPERATURE-WISE...SEE THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW FOR ALL THE GOOD NEWS...AS TODAY/TONIGHT ARE ABOUT ONE MORE
ROUND OF WELL-BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AND LIKELY THE COLDEST READINGS
THE CWA WILL SEE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS.

STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/3AM...KUDOS TO THE
DAY/EVENING SHIFT FORECASTERS FOR FURTHER RAMPING UP POPS FOR THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT...AND THUS HOPEFULLY FOLKS WEREN`T CAUGHT TOO
OFF-GUARD BY THIS SNOW. IT WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-EVIDENT 24
HOURS AGO THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WAS GOING TO SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT
DUSTING TONIGHT IF NOT CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THAT HAS CERTAINLY PANNED OUT. BASED ON EXTREMELY LIMITED GROUND
TRUTH (INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) AND THE FACT THAT THE GRAND
ISLAND ASOS MELTED 0.06 OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...IT SEEMS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.3
INCHES OF FRESH SNOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN LOWER EXCEPTIONS
BEING THE FAR NORTH (AROUND ORD) WHICH WAS NEVER SUPPOSED TO SEE
MUCH IN THE FIRST PLACE...AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY
24 KANSAS COUNTIES...WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH SNOW SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA AND IT IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR WHETHER THEY WILL SEE
MUCH. ALMOST INVARIABLY...SOMEBODY OUT THERE WILL PROBABLY REPORT
A 2-INCH TOTAL...BUT WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE A
CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. TURNING TO THE CURRENT MID-
UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA DEPICT A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG AN AXIS FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA TO BAJA...WITH THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THIS LARGER TROUGH PASSING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. ON A
BIT SMALLER SCALE...THIS OVERNIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN LARGELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOST EVIDENT
AROUND 700MB...AND WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A VERY STRONG
16O+KT JET STREAK EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOCAL AREA AT
THE 300MB LEVEL. DOWN AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...THE LEADING
EDGE OF YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT HAS PASSED WELL SOUTH TO NEAR THE
RED RIVER...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER SASKATCHEWAN. NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES HAVE EASED
DOWN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...

EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE: WITH THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINKING SOUTHWARD...SNOW
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WELL. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...AM
STARTING TO WONDER IF OUR SOUTHERN-MOST ROW OF KS COUNTIES WILL
SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING GIVEN THE RECENT DISORGANIZING TREND
OF THE MAIN BAND. IN SHORT...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS POINT
ONWARD SHOULD FOCUS MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND
WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYBODY GET MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL
HALF-INCH. FORTUNATELY...THE COMPLETELY SEPARATE BAND OF SNOW
CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT LEAST 50 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA AND NOT
BE A FACTOR. WITH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER STILL
OVERHEAD...TEMPS WON/T DROP TOO MUCH MORE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS ON
TRACK TO RANGE FROM 9-17 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...RESULTING
IN WIND CHILLS AROUND SUNRISE RANGING GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO.

DAYTIME HOURS: BARRING UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS...ANY LINGERING
SNOW BY SUNRISE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR BOTTOM ROW OF
HIGHWAY 24 KS COUNTIES...WITH MAYBE AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING UP TO AROUND THE STATE LINE. BY 15Z/9AM...HAVE ANY
FLURRY MENTION RESTRICTED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
CWA...AND EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS BY DAYS END.
SKY- COVER WISE...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO
START THE DAY...BUT A GRADUAL NORTH-TO-SOUTH CLEARING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE
ARE HINTS THAT DEEPENING DAYTIME MIXING COULD ACTUALLY FOSTER A
FEW ENHANCED PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
EVEN POP A FEW FLURRIES WHICH ARE TECHNICALLY NOT IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON FLURRIES
APPEAR TO FOCUS JUST OUTSIDE THE LOCAL DOMAIN IN NORTHERN NEB. DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED MIXING WHICH SHOULD CLIMB UP TO AT
LEAST 800MB OR SO...IT WILL ACTUALLY BECOME FAIRLY BREEZY TODAY
ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS TUESDAY. LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TO
FEATURE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 25 MPH. TEMP-WISE...HANDS-DOWN THE COLDEST DAY WE WILL SEE
FOR A WHILE...AND MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH
TEMPS...WHICH ARE AIMED MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NEB...AND LOW 30S IN
KS...ALTHOUGH FRESH SHALLOW SNOW COVER COULD TRY HOLDING A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF THIS.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: MAINLY JUST COLD. UNLESS THERE HAPPEN TO BE
A FEW ROGUE FLURRIES FLOATING AROUND UNDER POSSIBLE LIMITED
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS (NOT OFFICIALLY ADVERTISED)...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN FOR A SNOW-FREE NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AT LONG LAST THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS AS EVIDENT AT 500MB WILL FINALLY PASS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...SWITCHING THE FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THE HEART OF
A 1035-1040MB HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
IA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LOCALLY...THIS MEANS QUICKLY-DIMINISHING
BREEZES EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH THEN BECOME RATHER
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH CLOSER TO SUNRISE. BARRING ANY
GREATER-THAN-EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...ESPECIALLY WITH A TOUCH OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. MOST RAW 2-METER MODEL TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY TOO WARM WITH LOWS FOR SOME REASON...BUT SOME OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COULD BE A BIT COLD. AFTER BLENDING A FEW
THINGS TOGETHER ENDING UP NUDGING LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 3-8 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PLACES LIKE ORD SLIP JUST BELOW
ZERO. KEEP IN MIND...NOW THAT WE ARE INTO MARCH READINGS THIS
COLD ARE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE ALREADY CLEARED THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
12Z THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
TO OUR AREA...WITH THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTRODUCTION OF A
WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S BY THE END OF THE
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY PREVAILING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A FEW HARMLESS FLURRIES. WIND-WISE...A PREVAILING
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TOWARD SUNRISE. WHILE SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE WELL-UNDER 12KT...THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 20-25KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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