Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite and observations show a band of lower clouds across a
small part of the area this afternoon, with some cirrus for the
east. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated north to
south through the forecast area. A few showers and some isolated
thunderstorms are developing.

The NAM, HRRR and a couple of the WRF models indicate there could
be a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon. On the other hand, the GFS and RAP are more robust with
the precipitation across the area. The best chance will be in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Can not rule out the
thunderstorms, but the clouds in the east could slow things down a
little this afternoon. Into the evening hours, an upper level wave
moves into the area and models have thunderstorms developing along
the front. By this evening, the front is expected to drift to the
southeast and the best chance of precipitation during the evening
and overnight will be across north central Kansas and far southern
Nebraska. Some of the thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday
morning, but there could be a little bit of a break during the
late morning hours. Another upper level wave moves into the area
on Tuesday. There is still a few differences in the models. The
GFS and the NAM both bring in some precipitation mid day into the
afternoon hours, but the WRF models are more dry during the
afternoon. Have kept some small POPs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night there is a developing surface low and cold front
across western Nebraska and Kansas and another upper level wave
moves into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon on the high plains and should move into the area
during the evening and continue into the overnight hours. This
looks to be the best chance for some thunderstorms. A few of the
thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours Wednesday, but
with another weak wave that moves into the area there is still a
chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Models continue to show a couple of weak upper level waves that
move through the area Wednesday night. There are spotty areas of
QPF across the area and there is a chance for some thunderstorms.
By Thursday afternoon the ECMWF and GFS both have a cold front
moving into the area with the upper low approaching. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front during the
afternoon. The upper low moves into the area Thursday night and
there is another good chance for thunderstorms.

The models have a few differences for Friday and beyond. The GFS
is faster to move the upper low out of the area than the ECMWF,
but there continue to be several upper level waves that move
through the area. Each wave has the potential to bring some
thunderstorms, but it will depend on the timing of the waves and
what happens to the surface front that tends to linger, getting
stronger and weaker at different times. Have kept chances for
thunderstorms in through the period, but it will not be raining
all the time. It is just hard to define just when there will be
something going on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

This is a very difficult forecast. A lot of uncertainty will be in
place due to ongoing convection and finer mesoscale features that
have yet to be realized. That being said, KEAR will likely be
in between MVFR and IFR, and KGRI could very well be in the same
boat due to fog formation if wind speeds stay light. This is
going to be monitored over the next couple hours and an amendment
may be sent out to showcase the fog potential later this morning.
It will depend on the convection ongoing right now and how calm
the wind speeds will get. Low level moisture is there for fog but
the wind speeds may not stay calm enough. If skies remain clear
with light winds, fog will likely develop later this morning.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing later this afternoon but a
lot of uncertainty remains with those chances as well. It will
depend on where the boundary sets up later today. That being said,
there is a good chance for thunderstorms and severe weather later
today. Timing and coverage will be better depicted is subsequent
TAFs, but thunderstorms will likely begin to form later this
afternoon and create MVFR to possibly IFR conditions at the
terminals for at least a couple hours later today.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Guerrero


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