Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 010007
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
707 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SMALL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS WHETHER
TO INCLUDE VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. CAN I SAY FOR SURE IT WILL RAIN...NO. CAN I SAY FOR SURE
IT WON/T RAIN...NO. THAT WAS THE FINAL DECISION ESSENTIALLY. WEAK
H7 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE VERY
SLOWLY INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED 15-20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND HANGING AROUND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS WEAK BUT HAVE
KEPT THE ISOLATED STORM RISK WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES INCLUDING
THAT. SEEM LIKE ITS MORE SHOWERS. THIS IS A VERY LIGHT
EVENT...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES MOST AREAS SO A 15-20
PERCENT RISK AT MOST SEEMS REASONABLE.

OTHER THAN THAT...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALL AREAS
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 20 MPH TODAY. FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MAY KNOCK A DEGREE OR
TWO OFF TEMPS...BUT PRETTY WARM OTHERWISE. ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL FEATURE VARYING WEATHER FROM WARM/WINDY
TO SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TO MAYBE PATTERN CHANGE FOR LABOR
DAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HEADING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR TSTMS. MODELS ARE NOT
IN COMPLETE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH THE NAM QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTS THE BETTER
CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA FASTER TUESDAY NIGHT
THAN THE GFS. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLVL JET
WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST PER NAM VS MORE
NORTHERLY ON THE GFS. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO TELL ATTM AND HAVE CARRIED POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA INITIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING EAST TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH AROUND THE
SATURDAY TIME FRAME THE FORECAST TURNS WARM AND WINDY. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AVERAGING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S CELSIUS. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TIGHT SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND DEEP
MIXING PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL...AVERAGING IN
THE 80S AND 90S WITH DAILY READINGS DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY ARE NOT
EXACTLY ZERO IN THE WAA REGIME...HOWEVER BETTER CHCS FAVOR LOCATION
TO OUR WEST ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD EDGE FARTHER EAST FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CHANCES FOR STORMS START TRENDING UP TO SOME
DEGREE...HOWEVER IF EARLIER MODEL TIMING HOLDS THE BEST CHCS FOR
STORMS FAVOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH COULD
CROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT BY LABOR DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING NEARLY 10C COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS BEING SAID...MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
PATTERN BY DAY 7 AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FRONTAL AND SYSTEM TIMING
AS 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING MUCH SLOWER WITH SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
WEAK LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOME PASSING CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE...OPTED TO JUST INTRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI



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