Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
FXUS63 KGID 181714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Dry and mild weather will continue across our region today.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind a cold front which
moved through on Friday, but we are still looking for highs 20 to
25 degrees above normal with readings averaging in the 60s. Winds
will be fairly light under the influence of a surface ridge for
the first part of the day, then as the ridge axis migrates east we
will see a return flow of southeasterly winds and an increase in
low level moisture. Models indicate an area of stratus will lift
north from southeast Kansas overnight which work toward our
southeast zones towards Sunday morning and some reduced
visibilities in fog are possible. The timing of the low clouds
have slowed compared to 24 hours ago and have backed off on timing
of fog from south to north and the current forecast may still be a
little pessimistic for our northern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Sunday morning the south winds will continue to bring moisture to
the area and the fog will continue into Sunday morning. The most fog
will be in the southeast part of the forecast area. South winds will
continue during the day on Sunday and there will be increasing
clouds during the day. By Sunday evening an upper level wave moves
into the area and brings a chance for precipitation to the area.
There is MUCAPE across the area around 300 to 1000 j/kg during the
night. Have continued the chance for isolated thunderstorms during
the night. The precipitation will start to move out of the area on
Monday as the upper wave moves through. There could be a lingering
showers in the morning then some wrap around showers in the
afternoon. These are fairly small chances and most of the models
have the precipitation moving out early Monday.

The period Monday night through Wednesday there will be warm
advection across the area and the temperatures will be very warm for
this time of year.

There is another upper level low moving through the Rockies
Wednesday night and moves into the plains Thursday. There is a small
chance for some precipitation late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning which could be some rain or snow. The models have some small
differences in the timing and location of the upper low. The timing
and location of the precipitation is a little different, but there
are enough similarities and have precipitation Thursday afternoon
through Friday. The colder air moves into the area Thursday night
and the precipitation mixes with and changes to snow during the
night, then back to rain during the day on Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR conditions expected through much of this TAF period, with main
concern coming during the early-mid morning hours tomorrow. Models
continue to show the potential for low level stratus/fog to advect
north into the terminal areas. Currently have conditions dropping
into the lower end of the MVFR category, but wouldn`t be surprised
if especially the ceilings ended up a bit lower. Later TAFs will
be able to adjust. Winds will continue turning more southeasterly
this afternoon, eventually becoming southerly this evening through
the end of the period. Speeds look to top out around 10 kts.




AVIATION...ADP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.