Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 180530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1130 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

After a cooler day today, warmer weather will return for the start
of the workweek. It was an interesting day with light precipitation
in our southeast zones this morning, with a hole in the cloud
cover across much of our cwa with clear skies, while our far east
and western zones were impacted by low clouds. Short term models
are in good agreement that the low cloud cover will scatter/erode
by evening and with decreasing cloud cover tonight, temps should
drop to the teens/20s for lows. Temperatures rebound nicely on
Monday in rising heights and warm air advection. Sunshine,
downslope winds and airmass change of 7C at H8 will lead to a much
warmer day with highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Dry weather with above normal temperatures will persist through
Wednesday, then the weather pattern undergoes changes to colder
conditions Thursday through the remainder of the outer periods.

A weak cold frontal passage Monday night will allow for some
negligible cooling on Tuesday, only a few degrees shy of Monday`s
high temperatures.

The pattern aloft Wednesday is fairly zonal across the plains ahead
of an upstream trough in the northwest CONUS. Southerly low level
flow increases during the day, however models have slowed the
progression of the approaching trough and Wednesday is not looking
quite as windy as it did 24 hours ago.

With the slower timing of the western trough, the forecast for
Thursday is also changing. The cold front which was supposed to
cross our region Wednesday night (as indicated 24 hours ago) now
looks to move through Thursday morning, with the brunt of the cold
air arriving Thursday afternoon or night depending on the model
(ECMWF faster than GFS). Due to the slower timing of the front,
temperatures Thursday have increased, however depending on the
timing, readings may steady or fall during the afternoon.
Precipitation chances are not looking overly promising either, as
the ECMWF gives us a glancing chance for rain/snow with fropa, then
focuses the better snow chances to our north. The GFS on the other
hand, still suggests the potential for light snow accumulations with
its deeper and slower mid level trough progression across the plains
and holds onto snow potential into Friday.

While precipitation chances and snowfall are looking a little more
iffy, confidence on the pattern change and arrival of cold air is
high. Reinforcing shots of cold air will arrival through the weekend
with temperatures struggling to reach the 20s for highs Saturday and
Sunday (Christmas Eve) while lows will be frigid in the single
digits. The current forecast also carries light snow chances into
the weekend time frame, however confidence is not high given the
changes we have seen already for Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Could approach
marginal LLWS conditions early Monday morning, but the window will
be pretty short. As such, I`ve left it out of the TAFs for now.

Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies through Monday, with west-
southwest winds gusting as high as 20 kts during the afternoon.




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