Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH "HEAVY" AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR
AN OVERALL-DREARY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO PINPOINTING RAIN
CHANCES/LOCATIONS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS...SO DON/T GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS
FOR SATURDAY AS THEY COULD EASILY TREND DIFFERENTLY. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE...THERE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NO RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330
PM...ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE
CWA...MAINLY OF THE MID-LEVEL VARIETY BUT WITH A THICKER AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL-WISE...TWO DISTINCT AREAS/BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY...ONE THAT HAS NOW LARGELY LIFTED OFF
TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER THAT IS CURRENTLY MAINLY FALLING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB ZONES. AS EXPECTED...AMOUNTS TODAY IN MOST
AREAS HAVE AVERAGED WELL-UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
WESTERN AREAS HAVE HAD MORE THAN THIS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A STRONGER PARENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO. THE NET RESULT IS EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CWA-WIDE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY NO MORE THAN 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS/PRECIP
HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPS QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND HIGHS IN MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT 53-60.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...MOST PLACES WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST...BUT BECAUSE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND ESPECIALLY DRIZZLE
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY HIGH...WANTED TO GO NO LOWER THAN 60 PERCENT
"LIKELY" CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...AT LEAST WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT
IN PLACE...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CLOUD
CEILINGS AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF AREAS OF PESKY LIGHT DRIZZLE.
THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE A FEW LEGITIMATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT BY AND LARGE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY/LIGHT FOG IS A DECENT BET...DO
NOT FORESEE A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THESE BREEZES.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL VERY LITTLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
VALUES...WITH LOWS AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS IS
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A VERY CLOUDY/DREARY DAY OVERALL.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES
EVER-CLOSER...GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CO AREA BY DAYS
END. OUT AHEAD OF IT...A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
PERSIST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKS TO
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINK THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME AT LEAST MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE MORE COMMON AS
WELL...AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING ONE OR
MORE BATCHES OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM AND
GENERALLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A LEGITIMATE BREAK FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES DURING PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON...IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY DESIGNATING A
TRULY "DRY" PART OF THE DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE...AND POPS IN THE
40-70 PERCENT RANGE DEFINE THE ENTIRE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE MUCH INTENSITY AT ALL IN MOST
AREAS...SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD FLIRT WITH THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT BECAUSE
OUR LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE ANY KIND OF
LEGITIMATE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CONTINUE. TEMP-WISE...IF ANYTHING MAY HAVE STILL GONE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
62-66 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AS THIS PERIOD IN ABOUT 3
DIFFERENT CHUNKS TIME-WISE.

THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WORK ACROSS OUR
FORECAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE MORE NORTH THAN
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST FOR THE MOST PART. RIGHT NOW HAVE
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THINGS MAY BE MORE DRIZZLY THAN ANYTHING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST OF A MCCOOK...KEARNEY...ORD LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE RISK
APPEARS MARGINAL IF THAT...GIVEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITING
INSTABILITY. ON MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST WHICH MAY BE THE
SPARK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. IF THE
SUN DOES MAKE A SOLID APPEARANCE...A FEW STORMS COULD POP
BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS LOW END.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEM TO BE BEST SHOT FOR A DRY PERIOD
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REFLECT THIS TREND. IN FACT
CHANCES WERE DROPPED QUITE A BIT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO HOLD
RAIN A BIT FOR THE BETTER PART OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS SHOULD
START TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT WARMER.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD EMBEDDED WAVES COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW. RIGHT NOW IT IS NOT THE CUT-OFF LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WE HAVE SEE IN RECENT WEEKS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND WITH SOME WARMER WEATHER...WILL
AGAIN HAVE A POTENTIAL INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...NOT
MENTION IMPACTS TO THE ALREADY HIGH PLATTE RIVER FLOW SHOULD
RAINFALL DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS AS THERE
ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL GO ANYWHERE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN FACT...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO NEAR LIFR
LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LIGHT DRIZZLE AND BR CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR LEVELS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAY EVEN SEE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW...SO KEPT OUT
OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING. OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PLATTE RIVER CREST IS APPROACHING KEARNEY GAUGE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEARNEY SHOULD TOP OFF ABOUT 7.0 OR 1 FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THOUGH IT WILL DROP OFF IT WILL DO SO VERY...VERY SLOWLY AND
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO. HIGHER WATER DOWNSTREAM
IN GRAND ISLAND AREA NOW FORCING GRAND ISLAND TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
ON HIGHWAY 34 BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING AROUND EXIT 312 INTERCHANGE
ON SOUTH SIDE. CREST PROBABLY 2 DAY AWAYS THERE. BACK TO THE
WEST...THE COZAD GAUGE SITE IS TECHNICALLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LAND FLOODING IN DAWSON PER DRIVE-THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. REISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MUCH OF DAWSON COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES LIMITED NEW RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...AND THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVE
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...BUT UPSTREAM THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD DROP SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ROSSI
HYDROLOGY...MORITZ



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