Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 172326
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Potentially Hazards Weather: None.

Aloft: Multiple ob platforms and RAP model inits indicated low
amplitude WNW flow over the CONUS with a modest anticyclonic
curvature over the W. A benign shrtwv trof was over the Panhandle
and this trof will cross the CWA tonight with nothing more than a
few high clouds. The tail end of a potent trof over Srn Canada
will cross the rgn in the PM tomorrow. Low amplitude WNW flow will
cont.

Surface: Strong high pres was over the Ern USA with return flow
over the Plns. A cool front moved onshore into the Pac NW this
AM. The CWA will remain the warm sector until this front moves
thru tomorrow. Weak high pres will rapidly develop over the rgn
behind this front tomorrow afternoon.

Rest of this afternoon: Gorgeous. Get out an enjoy it! Temps will
peak around 4 PM.

Tonight: A few high clds around before midnight then clearing.
Svrl degs warmer than last night. Lgt S winds.

Wed: Sct cirroform clouds thru early afternoon ahead of the
trof...then clearing as it moves thru. The fcst may not have
enough clouds in it prior to 18Z. It may be p/cldy not m/sunny.
Winds will pick up in CAA from the Tri-Cities N and W. Gusts up
to 25 kts from LXN-ODX.

Most of S-cntrl Neb will be svrl degs cooler than today. From Hwy
136 down into N-cntrl KS...temps will be similar to today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Potentially Hazards Weather: Windy Fri...espcly over N-cntrl KS.
Then a slight chance for a few isolated storms Fri night into Sat
morning.

A ridge will cross the rgn Thu with SW flow aloft remaining thru
Sat. A substantial pattern-changing trof passage will occur Sat
night. NW flow will prevail next week as a longwave ridge develops
over the Wrn USA with a trof in the E.

The CWA will remain in the warm sector until a strong cool front
crosses Sat AM. This front will be devoid of precip until it gets
E and S of the CWA. So don`t expect much rain. This front will
come thru dry for most locations. The main mitigating factors will
be 1) a cap as differential advection advects an EML over the
low-lvl moisture...and 2) poor frontal timing. Frontal ascent will
break the cap just to our E and S late Sat PM.

This scant opportunity for rain is it for the next 7 days.

We will probably have the fronts associated with a clipper diving
thru Sun night into Mon but they will be moisture-starved as
well.

Temps: cont`d way above normal Thu-Fri. Sat`s cool frontal
passage will return temps back to near normal thru Tue.

Raised low temps Fri AM in strong pres grad/mechanical mixing
(using average of model 2m temps)...and we are now fcstg record
tying or record breaking warm lows.

...Records...
GRI: 59 in 1953 (current fcst: 59)
HSI: 57 in 2015 (current fcst: 59)

Wind: Windy from the S Fri and then from the NW Sat. Fri 30G45
mph likely across the Srn fringe of the CWA (Plainville-
Beloit)...but if the EC/GFS/NAM 850 mb wind fields are right and
there is plenty of sun...winds may be in that range for much more
of the CWA.

A possible snag with this idea is that a band of stratus is fcst
to form from Hwy 281 E. If the 12Z NAM is right and it lingers
thru much of the day...it will suppress mixing and hold winds
down there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Dry weather and VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period.
Any clouds passing through mainly later tonight and into tomorrow
morning are expected to be in the upper levels, above 15k ft.
Winds will become more southerly in the next hour or so, remaining
that way until later tonight, when they turn more westerly ahead
of an approaching front, then to the north-northwest by late
morning once the front passes. Sustained speeds behind the front
around 15 MPH will be possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...ADP



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