Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Stratus and some patchy fog continues to plague the northeast
portion of the forecast area this afternoon. South and western areas
have some sunshine. With the clouds, the temperature has been kept

Main concern for the period will be if there will be fog again
tonight. There is a surface low to the north of the forecast area
with light winds expected through the night and into Monday morning.
All of the models have some low level moisture across the area. The
HRRR has lower visibilities for late tonight and the SREF has a
pretty good chance for visibilities lower than a mile. The best
location for this would be in the eastern part of the area and
toward the central part of the forecast area. That area could have
visibility around a mile or less again in the morning. Some of the
models show it starting after 03Z tonight and moving out better than
it did this morning, having it gone by 15Z. If it does move out on
time, the highs tomorrow should be in the 80s, but if the clouds
linger too long will have to watch the temperatures in the
northeast/eastern part of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The surface low over the area on Monday will sink to the south and
bring a cold front through the area mainly late Monday afternoon and
evening. It will be late enough in the day to have little impact on
temperatures Monday and even Monday night will be similar to lows
tonight. The colder air will finally be felt on Tuesday with
temperatures cooling off. Tuesday and Tuesday night will continue
dry with a weak surface high that moves through the area. An upper
level wave moves into the area Wednesday and there is a chance of
showers mainly across the Nebraska portion of the area during the
day Wednesday and into the evening hours before they move out.
Temperatures cool off Wednesday night and Thursday remains on the
cool side as a surface high moves through the area. An upper level
ridge builds to the west of the area and there will be some warm
advection Thursday night through Saturday. Temperatures will show a
little warming trend through this period. Another cold front moves
through the Sunday and cools temperatures off a bit.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The primary concern will once again be the possibility of fog and
low stratus clouds a few hours either side of dawn. Based on
forecast models it seems that fog will cover less area than it did
last night, but could still be rather dense in areas where we do
see fog. At this time the best bet for fog is to the southeast of
KGRI and KEAR. It will be a closer call in KGRI and will go with
lower visibility in the TAF along with a scattered low stratus
deck that could possibly even take KGRI to IFR at times. Any
visibility and ceiling reductions will improve by late morning and
be a non-issue as we head into Monday afternoon.




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