Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 242130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
430 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Highlights of these next 36 hours or so include continued
tricky/fairly low-confidence shower/storm chances, and what
matters to most folks, the official arrival of somewhat
cooler/less humid weather. Honestly, despite some low precip
chances (PoPs) lurking here or there, there is a decent chance
that a good chunk of the CWA (especially Neb counties) will more
likely than not remain dry/storm-free through Monday night. Even
for those areas that do see storms, severe weather chances look
pretty low through Monday night, and neither the SPC Day 1 or 2
outlooks officially highlights us in a severe weather risk either.

Taking a quick look at current/recent weather:
Although not truly "cool" by any means, this afternoon`s high
temperatures mainly in the mid 80s to perhaps low 90s range feel
like a nice break from the recent hot stretch, which turned out to
be the hottest 5-day stretch in the Tri-Cities area in 4 years
(see separate climate section below). The leading edges of the
cold front that passed through mainly last night has reached well
into southern KS, with modest high pressure settling in behind it
promoting at times breezy east-northeast winds across most of the
CWA (some gusts to 20+ MPH). Adding to the comfort are noticeably
lower dewpoint values than late, with most places registering well
down into the upper 50s-mid-60s range instead of oppressive 70s.
In the mid-upper levels, a small-scale mesoscale convective vortex
(MCV) has departed eastward along eastern portions of the NE/KS
border, and as it has left so have the isolated/scattered light
showers that affected many of our southern counties much of the
day. Also in its wake, skies have cleared considerably versus this
morning. To our north, the southern fringes of a somewhat stronger
disturbance was brushing along the NE/SD border.

Now briefly looking through these next few day/night forecast

This evening/tonight:
Most of the CWA likely remains dry tonight, and have confined any
mentionable PoPs to areas mainly near/south of the state line.
However, if storms do end up affecting our south, PoPS in that
area may very well not be high enough, as some models suggest a
pretty decent coverage of convection is possible, especially after
midnight, either from upstream High Plains activity moving in from
the west-northwest, or from activity developing overhead within a
modest low level jet Axis to the north of the southern KS surface
front, or as a combination of both of these possibilities.
Severe chances appear fairly low but a few stronger storms cannot
be ruled out. Otherwise, east-northeast breezes become fairly
light overnight allowing a respectable temp drop compared to
lately in cloud-free areas. Have aimed lows from near-60 far north
to near-70 far southeast (mid 60s central including Tri-Cities).

Monday daytime:
Have lingered some chances for showers/storms into the morning
hours in southern zones, likely as a continuation of possible
activity from late tonight. However, most models have consistently
maintained for the past few days that the afternoon stays dry and
have stayed the course. Breezes look to average at least 10-15 MPH
from the east-southeast most of the day, with higher gusts. If
anything, nudged up highs a degree or two, but overall fairly
similar to today with upper 80s most Neb zones and more-so low 90s
in KS.

Monday night:
As also mentioned by previous night shifter, this could easily be
a dry night for the vast majority of the CWA. In fact, have
removed mentionable PoPs from several eastern counties, but given
various hints of a weak wave dropping in from the northwest along
with an increasing low level jet, have left small PoPS in for the
majority of the CWA, especially post-midnight. Severe weather
chances look pretty meager. With breezes light but steady from the
southeast, low temps look to hold up a touch warmer than tonight,
mainly mid-upper 60s all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday daytime through Sunday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

General overview of this 6-day period:
Overall, little noticeable change from the previous forecast,
which remains "littered" with numerous/many low-confidence chances
for showers/storms (PoPs) nearly every day and night.
Temperature-wise, a much more "seasonable" stretch (compared to
our recent heat blast) continues, with a few days during this
stretch technically falling a bit short of late-July normals
(normal highs this time of year are generally upper 80s in Neb
zones and low 90s in KS).

Further comments on shower/storm/severe weather chances:
Nearly every day/night features at least slight PoPs at least
somewhere within the CWA. Very preliminary, have kept the
forecast "dry" (meaning PoPs less than 15 percent, not necessarily
zero) for Saturday night/Sunday, but this is sure no guarantee to
stay this way. At least for now, the overall-highest PoPs are
focused on both Tuesday night/Wednesday night, when chances are as
high as 40-50 percent. However, as emphasized in our latest
Hazardous Weather Outlook: Thunderstorm predictability in this
summer weather pattern carries lower than average confidence,
meaning that storm chances could easily decrease or increase
noticeably on fairly short notice, so be sure to stay up to date
to the latest trends as we gradually gain confidence/sort out the
murky details of this very tricky weather pattern. In the mid-
upper levels, the pattern is very conducive to this multitude of
storm chances, as the Central Plains remains under fairly
consistent west-northwest flow aloft, downstream from a quasi-
stationary upper level ridge/high pressure system that remains
centered well to our southwest over the southwest CONUS. This
keeps us in the "firing line" for various, mainly low-amplitude
disturbances which may or may not kick off at least
isolated/potentially more widespread storm activity. As for severe
storm chances, there will almost undoubtedly be at least a few
episodes of at least limited severe storm activity during this
6-day stretch, as seasonably modest to at-times rather strong (by
late July standards) deep-layer wind shear sets up in the presence
of seasonably strong summer instability. At least for now, only
Tuesday afternoon/night is officially "outlooked" in an SPC
Marginal Risk area, but could easily see other days eventually
being assigned a severe risk as well as things draw nearer/details
become clearer.

A few more temperature/heat index thoughts:
Compared to the previous forecast, daily highs/lows were only
adjusted a few degrees at most either way. As it currently stands,
Tuesday is still looking like it could be the overall-warmest day
of the week with highs near-90 in Neb zones and mid-90s in KS.
Thereafter, most of the rest of the week looks to feature highs
between the mid-80s and low 90s all areas, before a possible
modest warm-up by late next weekend. Of course, daily highs could
easily be modulated by effects of lingering convection as well.
Compared to the forecast from 24 hours ago, the probability of
seeing 100+ degree heat index in our KS zones on Tuesday does not
look quite as high, and thus have removed this mention from the
latest Hazardous Weather Outlook (at least for now).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Confidence is rather high in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the
period, with only varying degrees of mid-high level clouds.
Although it is not out of the question that a shower/storm could
sneak over either site at some point mainly tonight into Monday
morning, this chance has been deemed around 20 percent or less,
and thus for now will leave all mention out whatsoever (not even a
"vicinity"). Surface breezes through the period should average
under 12kt essentially the entire time (assuming no convective
influences of course), with direction prevailing from the
northeast this afternoon, becoming lighter and somewhat variable
overnight, and then picking up again slightly from the east-
southeast by late Monday morning.


Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

This should come as no surprise to anybody who has lived around
here for several years, but our recent 5-day stretch of above-
average heat from the 19th-23rd was in fact the overall-hottest
5-day stretch of summer temperatures we have experienced in the
Tri-Cities area since the notably hot summer of 2012.

Here is a quick look at how the average temperature (meaning an
average of daily highs/lows) turned out at Grand Island and Hastings
airports, our two primary climate data sites for which we regularly
advertise statistics:

- Grand island airport:
The average temperature July 19-23 was 85.1 degrees (including an
average daily high of 97.4). The last time 5-consecutive days
featured a hotter average was July 22-26, 2012 (85.3 degrees).

- Hastings airport:
The average temperature July 19-23 was 85.0 degrees (including an
average daily high of 97.6). The last time 5-consecutive days
featured a hotter average was July 21-25, 2012 (85.1 degrees).


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...Pfannkuch
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