Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250617
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
117 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Sprinkles have mostly cleared out of central Nebraska as of early
afternoon. The axis of strongest winds is gradually shifting to
the east and decreasing. A cold front is gradually making its way
through the region, which will serve to shift winds to the
northwest and eventually to the northeast this evening and
tonight.

Behind this front, expect vastly different weather tomorrow.
Precipitation chances return late tonight into early Tuesday
morning, aided by a slow-moving upper level wave and associated
upper-level jet streak. I have maintained a mention of thunder for
Tuesday morning. This potential is probably pretty low, but there
is some instability and SREF probabilities show ~10% chance for
thunder. Along with the rain, breezy north winds will accompany
high temperatures that struggle to reach the 50s. Overall,
tomorrow just won`t be a very nice day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

This is a fairly active long-term forecast, but I will do my best
to keep it brief.

Precipitation is expected to gradually come to an end late Tuesday
night into Tuesday morning. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the
mid 30s across most of the area, but frost formation will be
difficult with stiff north winds and plenty of cloud cover.

That will be a different story on Thursday morning. Winds are
expected to go almost calm Wednesday night as surface high builds
in across the area. Low temperatures are expected to drop into
the low 30s for most of the area, making widespread frost likely.
Future shifts likely will need to consider frost/freeze
headlines, especially for northern and western parts of the
forecast area.

The next set of upper level waves are expected to impact the area
Thursday through Sunday. The first of which will pass through
Nebraska Thursday into Friday, while the next is forecast to drop
much farther to the south Saturday into Sunday. With both
systems, instability will be limited for central Nebraska and
north central Kansas, so I don`t have any mention of thunder in
the forecast at this time.

There is some concern with precipitation type, though. The latest
GFS is especially cold, and actually develops significant snow
from Lexington to Ord Friday night into Saturday morning. The
ECMWF isn`t as cold, so I kept all precipitation liquid through
this time period. I did continue a mix of rain/snow on Saturday
night into Sunday, as precipitation comes to an end and cold air
is advected in on the back side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

General overview:
The majority of the period should feature low-end MVFR/perhaps IFR
ceiling. There is a decent chance for periods of showers, with
perhaps a few brief/non-severe thunderstorms and maybe even some
drizzle. Surface winds will remain/become breezy from a northerly
direction. Now for some more element-specific detail:

Ceiling/visibility:
Although we are starting off VFR with only mid-level clouds, a
steady degradation to at least low-end MVFR is anticipated
by generally around sunrise, and this lower ceiling is then
expected to persist through the remainder of the period. Ceiling
could very well slip into IFR range at times too, but opted to
maintain low-end MVFR as the lowest official mention for now.
Maintained prevailing VFR visibility as well, but at least brief
periods of MVFR-or-lower cannot be ruled out under passing showers
and/or if any light drizzle materializes.

Precipitation:
Have blanketed the entire 09-00Z time frame with a generic
"vicinity shower" (VCSH) mention to cover the possibility of
passing showers. Especially through mid-late morning, there is
small chance of a non-severe thunderstorm as well, but will amend
for this if/when needed as the coverage of thunder should be
fairly minimal. While the chance of precipitation beyond 00Z is
not zero, felt chances were low enough to omit a formal mention
for now.

Surface winds:
Generally speaking, a gradual increase in speeds will occur over
the course of the period, as direction shifts slightly from
north-northeast early this morning, to more true northerly for
the majority of the period. Sustained speeds are starting out in
the 10-15kt range, but by later in the period will be closer to
20kt with gusts 25+kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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