Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 192352
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
552 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Flurries have continued on and off all afternoon. The clouds have
hampered temperatures from rising as much as they may have.

The forecast continues to be a challenge for the short term. Have
continued some flurries through the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Then the upper wave moves into the area during the evening
and expect more precipitation to develop. To the northwest of the
forecast area and into the northwest part of the forecast area there
will be snow developing. The upper level wave will move to the
northeast of the area during the night and the snow will gradually
come to an end late night.

In addition to the snow to the northwest there will be a chance for
some precipitation in the southeast part of the forecast area. The
concern with this is there is a warm nose aloft in the southeast.
There is also some lack of moisture in the dendritic layer which
could make it more drizzle. This precipitation also comes to an end
late night.

In between, most of the models have some light precipitation for a
time during the night. This area brings a few concerns as well. The
warm nose does not reach too far into the forecast area, and at the
end of the nose there will be a slight isothermal layer. All this
means that there could be a little sleet in between the snow and the
drizzle. As with the other precipitation, this should end before
morning, as well.

On Tuesday, a surface high pressure system tries to build into the
area. This should help the clouds to diminish and allow for some
sunshine. Even with sun, the temperatures should remain on the cold
side.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tuesday night into Wednesday the surface high pressure system will
give the area a glancing blow and move off the to east. Tuesday
night, the temperatures will drop to the single digits for much of
the area, then on Wednesday the temperatures will warm up a little
bit.

By Wednesday night, there will be some warm advection and this could
be an interesting period. There will be a chance of snow in the far
southeast part of the forecast area during the night. On Thursday,
the warm advection spreads across the area and an upper level wave
moves in. The precipitation spreads across the area. The problem
comes with the warm advection that brings warming aloft and as the
temperatures warm aloft, the snow could change to some freezing
drizzle or freezing rain. Models have a few differences in how far
the freezing precipitation moves to the north during the day. As the
upper wave moves through, the temperature cool back off and during
the evening, as the precipitation comes to an end, it should be
snow again. This will be a period to watch as it gets closer.

Friday into the weekend there should be a warming trend. Each day
should be a little warmer. The only concern is there is an upper
level wave that moves through Saturday into Saturday night. There
could be some rain or snow as this system moves through. Monday will
be mainly dry and the temperatures will be around the same as for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Flurries with a few periods of light snow will likely continue
on and off again through the evening and overnight hours. Can not
rule out a brief period of sleet, but snow should be the
predominate precipitation type for our KGRI and KEAR TAF sites.
Snowfall amounts will be light and should generally range from a
dusting up to a half inch at our TAF sites. Predominate ceiling
category through the overnight hours will be MVFR, but can not
rule out possibly slipping into IFR for a little while. Ceilings
are expected to improve quickly during the day on Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Wesely


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