Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
428 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The forecast over the next 24 hours is much easier forecast than the
last couple days as far as confidence goes. Mostly dry after the
ongoing convection clears out later this morning. Skies should clear
out somewhat to partly cloudy, and temperatures will get into the
lower to mid 80s for above normal high temperatures. Thunderstorms
are possible again later this afternoon.

Thunderstorms ongoing across the heart of the forecast area will
continue to push east this morning with marginally severe potential,
and possibly some minor flooding in areas receiving heavy rainfall.
HRRR simulated reflectivity has been doing a decent job handling
thunderstorms and their forecast last night and this morning. By
9am, we should be precipitation free across the outlook area. Later
this afternoon, there will be another chance for thunderstorms to
redevelop across western portions of the forecast area around 4/5 pm
along a cold front sagging south from a surface low over South
Dakota. Depending on the orientation and timing of the front, the
thunderstorms could be delayed a little or possible only hit
northern parts of the forecast area. Nevertheless, with most
unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg (GFS being a little
higher) and the front around, I see at least a chance for
thunderstorms to develop later if the timing of the upper level low-
amplitude shortwave is right. This pattern is difficult to discern
these low-amplitude shortwaves the last several days embedded in
this southwesterly flow aloft. Environmental shear will have the
potential to support severe storms capable of producing hail and
damaging winds as the primary threat. These threats will quickly
diminish in the evening as storms move eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Long term discussion will be sent shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The terminals will begin in VFR conditions, and these conditions
should persist through much of the TAF period, except for the time
period when thunderstorms transition through the forecast area.
These storms will likely bring the terminals down to MVFR
conditions for both ceilings, and in the heavier rain visibility
will be reduced as well. Thunderstorms should be moving out later
this morning with nearly all day in VFR conditions. Thunderstorms
will likely be done around 7 am for both the terminals.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Guerrero
AVIATION...Guerrero is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.