Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 211056
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
556 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

The main concerns will be stratus this morning and some light
shower/isolated thunderstorm activity possible today/tonight.
Despite being beneath an upper ridge, due to increased moisture
flux, this will be squandered by stubborn stratus, with just enough
low and mid-level lift to potentially give us some showers/rain,
thanks to the remnants of the low-level jet overnight. There could
be just enough instability for a thunderstorm, but this should be
isolated.

We could again get more nocturnal convection as thunderstorms fire
in the western High Plains. This will drift east and be aided by a
re-emerging low-level jet. As the theta-e ridge makes its way into
the CWA tonight, instability will not exactly be stellar, so
thunderstorm coverage should not be extensive.

I went a little cooler than Superblend initialization for today`s
highs, considering what the stratus did to yesterday`s highs. I went
a bit above Superblend for lows tonight. This adds up to highs in
the 60s today and lows tonight near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

THE LONG TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LONG TERM IS LITTERED WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE NEAR TERM SUNDAY EVENT LOOKS LIKELY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL BE THE FOCUS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS TROUGHING WILL BE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AS A STRONG 500 MB LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO CANADA SUNDAY. A
STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS CLOSED LOW...AND
WILL PLACE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND OVERALL SUPPORT FOR LIFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NOTEABLE FEATURE WILL BE THE LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES IMPACTING THE FORECAST. A
DRYLLINE WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THIS SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
EASTERN COLORADO...BUT AN EAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CANADA BORDER. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL (700-500
MB) LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7 C/KM...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE LACK OF OVERALL BULK SHEAR WILL BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A LOW TORANDO RISK. BETTER CHANCES FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND FRONTS. THAT BEING SAID...THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL THERE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY START TO
FIRE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING AND LIKELY
BECOMING LINEAR OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND SUNDAY WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
IN FACT...EVERY DAY HAS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LONG TERM.
DURING THIS STRETCH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...IF NOT NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Ceilings will continue to lower today, but models haven`t had the
best handle on this. There is an outside risk of some storms, but
chances are low enough to leave out of the forecast.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Guerrero
AVIATION...Heinlein



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