Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231007 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
407 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK HOWEVER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
AREA...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 27000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS NOTED
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AS A RESULT...BUT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED BEHIND THE TROUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THUS ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TODAY...THUS ALLOWING FOR
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN
PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A MUCH
STRONGER DOWN-SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRESENT A WARMER DAY TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...AND GUIDANCE RESPONDED BY PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR 30 ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AFTERNOON DEW POINT READINGS AT THE SURFACE
WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...THUS HELPING PROMOTE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-30% GENERALLY SOUTH I-80. ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST VALUES OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGEST ITS NOT WORTH MENTIONING NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO. GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT NO
OTHER SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT OR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IN THE HWO ON THIS SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

WITH VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD (ESPECIALLY OF THE MEASURABLE VARIETY)...BY FAR THE
BIGGEST STORY CONTINUES TO BE OUR INCREASINGLY-IMPRESSIVE RUN OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A
POTENTIALLY DECENT CHILL-DOWN WITHIN A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SCOPE...WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
STREAK TO REACH AT LEAST 15 DAYS THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY THE 29TH.
FOR THOSE WONDERING HOW THIS FITS IN HISTORICALLY FOR
JANUARY...THIS WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY
2006...WHICH LAYS CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS
GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS. THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN
INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE
MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK TO THE PRESENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S
THROUGH MOST OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SOME 60S EVEN LIKELY
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON SEVERAL DAYS. THEN
THE VERY LAST DAY OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD (THURSDAY) IS
FORECAST TO COOL BACK INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH WILL GET
INTO THIS MORE BELOW...PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA MAY ACTUALLY BE TRENDING DOWN TOWARD HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS YET. NO
MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT THOUGH...WHAT A PLEASANT TEMP PATTERN FOR
THOSE NON-SNOW LOVERS.

AS FOR BIG-PICTURE PRECIP TRENDS...ONLY ONE OF THESE 11 FORECAST
PERIODS (SATURDAY EVENING) NOW CONTAINS ANY OFFICIAL
MENTION...AND THAT IS MERELY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES...AT
LEAST FOR NOW. CERTAINLY A FEW OTHER ROUNDS OF ROGUE SPRINKLES
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FARTHER OUT IN TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO FORMALLY ADVERTISE ANYTHING BEYOND
SATURDAY EVENING YET.

AS FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER...NOTHING IS CURRENTLY WORTHY
OF INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
AT LEAST A FEW AFTERNOONS FOR A POTENTIALLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY BREEZES. AT
THIS TIME...THE AFTERNOONS THAT BEAR MOST WATCHING TO MAKE SURE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOESN/T GET LOWER AND/OR WIND SPEEDS HIGHER ARE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND-WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME DAYS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A BIT BREEZY...SUNDAY IS STILL THE CLEAR CANDIDATE TO
BE THE OUTRIGHT-WINDIEST DAY OF THESE 6...WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY SPEEDS LIKELY TO AVERAGE AT LEAST 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

NOW GETTING INTO GREATER DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE ONLY OFFICIAL
MENTION OF POTENTIAL SPRINKLE-TYPE ACTIVITY IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST
HAS BEEN RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING TIME-FRAME...AND
AT LEAST FOR NOW ONLY WITHIN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA.
IN THE BIG-PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS
VARIOUS 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE DETAILS OF A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
GENERALLY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH ITS MAIN
VORT MAX REACHING THE IA/NORTHERN MO AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. HAVE
LEFT THE DAYTIME DRY AT THIS TIME WITH THIS INCOMING FORCING
MAINLY REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER BRINGING IN SPRINKLE POTENTIAL DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON FAR NORTH. AT ANY RATE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING...AND WHILE CONSIDERABLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD FOCUS 100-200
MILES NORTHEAST-THROUGH-EAST OF THE CWA...THERE ARE ENOUGH HINTS
OF AT LEAST SPRINKLES CATCHING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THAT THIS
WORDING WAS ADDED BACK INTO THE FORECAST. IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS
ONTO ANYTHING...THIS POTENTIAL MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO INCLUDE THE TRI-CITIES AREA...SOMETHING TO
WATCH. POST-MIDNIGHT...LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF UPPER JET-STREAK INDUCED LIGHT PRECIP COULD
POSSIBLY IMPINGE ON WESTERN ZONES. TEMP- WISE...RAISED HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR
60 SOUTH. DAYTIME BREEZES LOOK TO GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NOTICEABLY MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...THANKS TO INCREASING
OVERNIGHT BREEZES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE VIGOROUS CLIPPER DEPARTS SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY BUT WITH THE STRONG UPPER JET STILL PASSING THROUGH
SUPPOSE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SPRINKLE-TYPE
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE OF THE DAY WILL BE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 35 MPH MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THIS DAY ACTUALLY HAS SOME GROWING UNCERTAINTY
AS WE MAY BE AIMING A BIT TOO WARM. FOR NOW...NUDGED DOWN HIGHS
1-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST)...BUT STILL AIMING
FOR A LOW 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST RANGE. HOWEVER...IF
THE BACKDOOR-STYLE COLD FRONT COMES IN AS AGGRESSIVELY AS SOME OF
THE LATEST 00Z MODELS SUGGEST...LATER FORECASTS MAY BE LOWERING
THESE HIGHS 5+ MORE DEGREES (MEANING MORE 40S HIGHS ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST 1/2).

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH IN DRY AND WARMER
TEMPS HERE AS A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES CREEPS
EASTWARD. WITH WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...THIS
LATEST FORECAST RAISED HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...NOW
AIMING FOR A GENERALLY 56-66 RANGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AS THE
HEART OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS. WITH A VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH...TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
MONDAY...BUT HIGHS ARE STILL AIMED WELL INTO THE 53-62 RANGE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST WANES
EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY HERE...AS ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES...BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BRING A WEAKISH/MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE EASTWARD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES...WITH MAYBE SOME MORE SPRINKLE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LOCAL AREA MAINLY WED NIGHT. TEMP-WISE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES COULD
MAKE THIS BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS YET...AND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WERE
NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S MOST AREAS...THIS
MAY NOT HAVE BEEN QUITE ENOUGH.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...PRETTY DECENT SIGNAL IN A MODEST COOL-DOWN HERE
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THIS LATEST MODEL-BLEND FORECAST ACTUALLY
NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...VERY PRELIMINARILY
AIMING FOR MID 40S IN MOST NEB ZONES...AND NEAR-50 IN KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL
INTENSIFY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12KTS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT


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