Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 170600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT SHOWED WEAKENING ODILE MOVING FM BAJA INTO OLD
MEXICO...A TROUGH WAS OFF THE WEST COAST IN THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN
PLACE IN BETWEEN A SFC LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND RIDGE
EAST OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.  AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS ADVECTED NORTH AND
EASTWARD FM KS AND SW NEBRASKA AND THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...MOVING OUT DURING THE EVENING.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE VCNTY OF OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THRU FLOW AND IN
PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL WAA. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS
SUGGEST BETTER CHCS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
CWA...BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW/BUFFER POPS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1500 J/KG AND
40KTS OF SHEAR IS PRESENT.

ALSO TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND LLVL
MOISTURE/HIGH DPS ADVECT NORTH.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PINPOINT OUR
WESTERN CWA FOR THE LOWER VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR AREAS VS PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN BY MID DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH H85 READINGS RISING A SOLID 5C COMPARED TO TODAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE H85 AND
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR IN THE 80S E/W WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE
WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LINGER A LITTLE INTO THURSDAY AND HAVE KEPT A
FEW SPRINKLES IN FOR THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY.

THE MAIN INTEREST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH IS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE BECOMING CLOSER WITH A FURTHER SOUTH PATH FOR THE UPPER
LOW. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN PREVALENT VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
MAINLY WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. OPTED TO REMAIN
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN DEPICTING A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH SITES 10Z-14Z...BUT OF COURSE
THIS IS JUST A BEST STAB AT VISIBILITY...AS CONSIDERABLE
FLUCTUATION ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE (FROM VFR TO IFR OR
WORSE) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AT ANY RATE...ONCE ANY
POSSIBLE MORNING FOG VACATES EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIGHT FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK
FOR A LOW CEILING COULD MATERIALIZE SHORTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...IT IS ESSENTIALLY NIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THERE IS MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE AT PLAY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY EVEN A
VICINITY (VCTS) MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT AND FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT MOST
TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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