600
FXUS63 KGID 070923
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
423 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most areas will remain storm free through the daytime hours
  today with a chance for severe weather returning this evening
  and continuing into the overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60 to
  70 MPH will be the greatest concern, although initial storms
  early in the evening could produce hail to the size of golf
  balls and even an isolated tornado.

- Heavy rainfall will accompany the storms tonight, with a quick
  1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible with the strongest storms.
  While localized flooding across areas with already saturated
  soils will be possible, widespread flooding is not expected to
  be an issue due to the progressive nature of the anticipated
  storms.

- Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with off an on again - mainly small - chances for
  storms continuing into next weekend. The next best shot for
  more widespread precip will be Thursday evening into Friday
  morning when a more pronounced upper level disturbance is
  forecast to cross the local area.

- Temperatures continue to look fairly typical through the
  period, fluctuating a few degrees either side of normal each
  day. Normal highs are generally in the upper 80s and normal
  lows are generally in the mid to upper 60s this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A line of weak showers and isolated thunderstorms developed
across mainly northern portions of the forecast overnight.
Models initially did not pick up on this activity, but the last
couple runs of the HRRR have partially captured it...and
subsequently quickly kill it off by daybreak. Given the
environment and only very subtle forcing and lack of a low level
jet, this seems reasonable, and expect a storm free start to
the day for the vast majority of the local area.

While there will be some clouds to start the day, mostly sunny
conditions should return by midday...as the next upper level
disturbance helps to enhance convection ongoing across
northeastern Wyoming as it rapidly propagates southeast through
the daytime hours. This complex of storms is expected to
organize as it tracks towards the local area, eventually posing
a severe weather threat later in the day. With steep lapse
rates, modest shear and plenty of CAPE, storms will initially
present both a wind and hail threat, which should transition to
mainly a wind threat as it crosses the local area later this
evening as a more organized area of storms. While heavy rainfall
will also be a possibility, the progressive nature of this
complex should limit flooding potential across the area.

Behind tonights complex of storms, mostly dry weather will
return for the middle of the week with modest ridging aloft
promoting warmer and dry conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. The upper ridge will then weaken late Wednesday,
allowing the return of additional thunderstorm chances through
the end of the forecast period. At this point, the next best
shot for more widespread thunderstorm activity looks to be
Thursday evening into Friday as a stronger upper level
disturbance coming from the west helps trigger another complex
of storms as it crosses the local area. Still a little early to
discuss severe potential for Thursday evening, but given the
available energy and forcing from the wave, would not be
surprised to see at least some stronger storms return to the
area Thursday evening.

Thereafter...continued weak westerly flow aloft should keep
temperatures near climo into next weekend with additional...
mainly small...off and on chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

SHRAs and TSRAs to the west of the terminals are expected to
continue to dive south overnight...with little impacts at either
site. Do expect continued mid level cloud cover to linger,
however, through the morning hours, with a sct100 deck returning
around 07/15-16Z. While confidence in model solutions is not
high...there seems to be some consensus that a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop to the northwest of the sites
late Monday afternoon...progressing southeast across the area
during the 07/22-07/04 or so time frame. As a result...have a
prob30 group over this period to cover the potential for
TSRAs...with CIGS lowering to near 6KFT...although they could
hit MVFR levels in a TSRA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi