Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 120607
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1207 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Snow ended across the area this morning and the sun is shining.
Northwest blustery winds persist today before decreasing this
evening. Surface ridging will slide through the area allowing
winds to decrease during the overnight hours.

Skies will be clear for a good bit of the overnight hours before
the next upper wave and its associated clouds move in. This will
help temperatures drop with this mornings snow cover. Have
decreased mins slightly with temperatures near zero across all of
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. wouldn`t be
surprised to see some areas below zero.

Clouds will increase as the sun rises and the next wave dives in
from the northwest. This quick hitting wave will bring yet another
chance for accumulating snow to the region. All of the higher
resolution guidance indicate this activity moving into the west
(around Lexington) around 9am. Expect this precipitation to slide
eastward across the area during the daylight hours, ending early
evening. Feel the best chance for the higher accumulations/longer
duration snowfall will be along a track from west central Nebraska
through central/south central Nebraska into southeast Nebraska
and into northeast Kansas. There is some indication from some of
the higher resolution guidance that north central Kansas could see
some accumulating snow as well and have raised pops for those
areas during the day. Overall most places will see less than an
inch, but areas along and north of the I-80 corridor could see
between a half inch to an inch. Winds will not be like they were
overnight...with easterly winds around 10 to 15 mph.

Highs on Friday will struggle with the lack of sunshine and the
continued chance for precipitation/snowfall. Highs are currently
expected in in the teens. Friday night`s lows will be similar to
tonight, near zero with wind chill values between 5 and 15 below
zero.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Saturday - Sunday:
Saturday will continue to be cool and well below normal with highs
in the teens. Surface high pressure will slide eastward allowing
southerly winds to return Saturday night and with cloud cover and
weak warm air advection, lows will not be much different than
highs.

Early Sunday another quick hitting disturbance drops southeast
into the trough over the east and brings yet another chance for
snow. There are some discrepancies for where this disturbance
will track, but the main threat looks to be for central and
eastern Nebraska. Another few tenths of snow accumulation are
possible. Sunday is expected to be warmer as warmer air pushes in
from the west. Highs on Sunday are expected in the 30s and
potentially low 40s.

Sunday night - Thursday:
Sunday is a brief reprieve ahead of yet another arctic plunge as a
strong disturbance dives into the eastern trough dislodging
another cold arctic airmass. This strong cold front will track
southward late Sunday and will bring another chance for snow as it
tracks southward across the state during the evening and overnight
hours.

On Monday surface high pressure will build in over the Northern
Plains bringing the arctic chill back. Highs for Monday and
Tuesday are in the teens with lows Monday night below zero.
Tuesday morning wind chill temperatures are expected between 10
and 20 below zero.

By Wednesday and Thursday the high pressure will be settling down
into the Southeast US with warm air advection across the Central
Plains. Highs will begin to warm back up, into the 30s and 40s by
Thursday possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1207 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2018

General overview:
Confidence remains very high in VFR/precip-free conditions with
only gradually increasing/lowering high-mid clouds through at
least the first 12 hours. Then, the latter half of the period will
feature at least a 6-7 hour window of opportunity for reduced
ceilings/visibility in light snow, with considerable uncertainty
regarding whether or not VFR ceiling returns late in the period.
Surface winds will not be a big issue, with speeds averaging near-
to-below 10kt throughout and direction transitioning from
northerly, to easterly, to northerly again. Read on for more
details...

Ceiling/visibility/snow:
In all reality, the official TAFS are probably a bit too
pessimistic/generalized on things such as: 1) The duration of
falling snow and associated visibility reduction...2) The onset of
sub-VFR ceilings, which could end up being delayed a few hours
from current depiction. Obviously these details will be further
refined in later issuances, but nonetheless confidence is fairly
high in at least a few hours of steady light snow during the
advertised window, along with an opportunity for IFR/MVFR
visibility. Kept prevailing ceiling at no worse than MVFR, but
brief IFR not out of the question either. While confidence is
pretty high that any lingering falling snow/flurries should end by
the 00-02Z time frame, there are some big question marks regarding
whether ceiling will remain MVFR or improve to VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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