Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 051122
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
522 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ONE BEING THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...AND THE OTHER A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW WORKING
ITS WAY INTO NERN MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN PORTION
OF NEB/SD. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...AND TEMPS AS OF 3 AM RANGE FROM RIGHT AROUND
THE 0 DEGREE MARK IN THE N/NE TO THE LOWER TEENS FURTHER SOUTH.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL WITH THAT
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND WHILE MODELS SHOW THAT WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER NERN MONTANA SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING...THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT WITH KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...THAT ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
KEEPING OUR WINDS LIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE E/SE WITH
TIME...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SRLY WITH TIME...A
BIT MORE SWRLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES. THOUGH THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER ON WONT BE BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA...IT WILL BE PUSHING A TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH...TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MODERATING AIR MASS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND WITH THOSE MORE
SRLY/EVENTUALLY WRLY WINDS...WILL BRING A WELCOME RISE IN
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE RAP FOR
HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WAS A BUMP UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT NOT A
HUGE CHANGE...WITH MID 30S IN THE EAST TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
FOR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD
COMPARED TO CURRENT TEMPS...WITH LOW/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH WARMER AIR WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG STORY LINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA...AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MOST DAYS THE SFC WIND
WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT AND AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OFF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALOFT
FAIRLY WARM. THIS ALL POINTS TO WARM SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...TO EVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER OUR RECENT COLD SNAP.
DESPITE NORMAL HIGHS ONLY BEING IN THE MID 40S...WE EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
POINTING TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A FEW MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE
SIDE...BUT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
S/SWRLY AS THAT HIGH SLIDES OUT OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LATTER FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...BRINGING A SWITCH TO WRLY WINDS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP


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