000
FXUS63 KGID 192018
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WE ARE MONITORING RADAR.

PLEASE SEE THE 1113 AM AFD FOR OUR MORE EXTENSIVE THINKING ON THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTATIONS.

ALOFT: AN 85 KT ULJ ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE WAS EJECTING ONTO THE
SRN PLAINS WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SD.

SFC: A COOL FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA AT 19Z /ROUGHLY JUST W OF
HWY 281/. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE E THIS EVNG...
PUTTING THE FCST AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE CUT-OFF.

NOW THRU SUNSET: DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY. SO EXPECT SCT TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE WIND PROFILE IS BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND 0-5 KM SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. MLCAPE
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS OF MULTICELLS. OVERALL EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF SUB-
SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

WHILE TOR WW 181 IS IN EFFECT FROM GENEVA NEB-BELOIT KS...THIS IS
MAINLY TO COVER THE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO TAKE
THE FORM OF MARGINAL 1" HAIL AND G60 MPH. AS THE STORM STRENGTHEN
THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE FURTHER E.

TNGT: TSTMS WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FCST MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUDS. EXPECT M/CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY.

MON: A DECENT START TO THE DAY BUT UPR-LVL COLD POOL WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLATED AFTN SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

BREEZY W WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH AFTER 10 AM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MUCAPE IS LITTLE TO NOTHING. IN ADDITION
DURING THIS TIME THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL SENDS SOME WEAK LOBES OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THERE TO BE CLOUDS. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND THE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL.
THE COOLER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST
CONUS WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THE FIRST
WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WEAK WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEREFORE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE. IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THE TIME IN EVERY LOCATION...BUT HAVE
KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THERE IS
SOME WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS AFTN: VFR. POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN.
WONT INCLUDE TSRA/CB IN THE TAF UNTIL IT HAS A LEGIT CHANCE OF
HITTING THE TERMINAL. SO WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. E WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO SW.

TNGT: VFR. ANY SCT SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET. W WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS.

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH W WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING 25-30 KTS
AFTER 16Z.

CIG CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WIND CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
WX CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB