Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 101045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH WILL STILL BE AROUND AT DAY BREAK. WITH THE
CURRENT REGENERATION LOCATION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE SOME CONCERN WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL END. SHORT TERM
MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK...THEN ONLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.

MODELS ALL DEVELOP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15 TO 25
MPH AND MAYBE GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE DAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS STARTS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BUT ALL OF
THEM BRING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT KANSAS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD TO BE
FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL...AND
NORTHWESTELRY FLOW STEERS MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WITH FORECAST MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE QUICK PASSING DISTURBANCES...KEPT VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO NEXT MONDAY...
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER AND VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 70S FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
IS AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT DRY
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME BECAUSE EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB


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