Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221909
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
109 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 109 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Have adjusted Warning/Advisory headlines for this afternoon as
follows:

For counties mainly west of the Highway 281 corridor:
Have cancelled the Blizzard Warning a few hours early and
converted it to a Winter Weather Advisory through 3 PM. With
falling snow largely ended and/or lighter in these counties, could
no longer justify a Blizzard Warning for widespread 1/4 mile or
less visibilities. However, lingering blowing snow and road-
drifting issues justify the Advisory for a few more hours.

For counties mainly along/east of Highway 281:
Have let the Blizzard Warning for the majority of this area stand
through 3 PM to account for the majority of continued falling snow
and white-out conditions. However, have "chased" the end of the
Blizzard Warning with 3 more hours of Winter Weather Advisory
through 00z/6PM to account for lingering light snow and
blowing/drifting. This end-time extension also better coordinates
with OAX to our east, especially for the Highway 81 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Lowered snowfall amounts most areas given the current lull in the
snowfall and may very well need to lower amounts a bit more.

The first major snowband clipped our northwestern zones last
evening into the overnight hours from Ord to Cozad, but mainly
impacted areas northwest of our forecast area. However, forecast
models remain in good agreement that a second heavy snow band will
begin to set up as we near dawn and especially between 6 am and
noon. However, there is some disagreement on where exactly this
band will set up with the heaviest snow. The band will be oriented
from northeast to southwest and the model agreement is that the
northern portion of the band will see the heaviest snow, primarily
along and north of I-80.

The 06Z NAM and the 08Z HRRR place the heaviest snow band from
around Hastings and Grand Island westward, while the NAM then
tries to develop yet another band from York to near Lincoln later
on. The 00Z NMM WRF and ARW WRF have consistently heavy snow for
most places along and north of Hwy 6 with the heaviest though east
of Hastings and Grand Island. In other words the fine details on
the placement of the heaviest snow bands remains challenging given
model disagreement.

I do believe that we will see a heavy snow band set up near the
Tri-Cities or just a little west of the Tri-Cities early this
morning and then slide east as it weakens. Overall this band
probably will not last long enough for most places to get much
more than 5 to 8 inches maybe a few stray 10 inch amounts, this is
lower than indicated by many models, but my faith in these models
is lacking a little right now. Some areas within the current
blizzard warning may very well get largely missed by the heavier
snow (The wind will be there) and may only see 2 to 3 inches,
these areas are probably the southeastern most extent of the
current blizzard warning. Will let the blizzard warning stand for
now as any snow with these 50 mph wind gusts will be a problem.

Expect numerous forecast updates this morning as this system
unfolds and once the snow band actually forms, which should give
us a better idea on the fine details of how the brunt of this
system will play out. We`ve already seen some wind gusts to over
50 mph and these will become more common as we head through the
morning hours. Areas within the eventual snow band will likely
experience blizzard conditions due to these winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The extended portion of the forecast remains fairly quiet. A weak,
moisture-starved upper level wave will move through the region on
Tuesday night, but it appears any precipitation will be minimal and
will stay well outside of the forecast area. After that, the
question becomes how warm we get by mid to late week as midlevel
ridging dominates the forecast. Right now, Thursday appears to be
the warmest day with highs in the 40s across Nebraska and 50s in
Kansas. Depending on how much remaining snow cover there is, I could
see this being even warmer.

Another system and cold front will push through the area Friday.
Again, it appears that our area will stay precipitation-free, as
moisture remains east of the area across eastern Kansas and
Missouri. This system will cool us down a bit over the weekend
(highs in the 30s), but it appears we will warm up again as we head
into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

General overview:
By far the worst conditions of the entire period will occur right
away during these first few hours, and mainly at KGRI, as the back
edge of a steady snow band continues pushing through, while
gradually weakening/ending from west-to-east. Snow has all but
ended at KEAR already. The trickiest part of the forecast will be
ceiling, as some models/guidance are much faster to bring back
prevailing VFR than others. Currently-strong winds will also
gradually diminish with time, especially beyond the first 6 hours.
Read on for more element-specific detail.

Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
Starting off for at least these first few hours, KGRI is prone to
continued LIFR visibility and IFR/MVFR visibility in falling snow,
while KEAR should see no worse than MVFR ceiling/visibility as
snow has all but ended. By 20-22Z, all falling snow should be over
with, and am also calling for a return to VFR ceiling. That being
said, there is a chance that stubborn MVFR ceiling could hang on
longer into the evening, or perhaps return, mainly at KGRI, so
this will need watched closely.

Winds:
The strongest winds of the period are occurring right away this
afternoon, with sustained 30-35kt/gusting 40-45kt. However, a
gradual decrease will occur, with gusts easing down into the
30-35kt range by 00Z, the 20-25kt range by 03Z, and then minimal
gustiness post-midnight, especially at KEAR. The final 6-9 hours
of the period should feature a relatively light west-northwest
winds around 10kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ040-
     041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085-086.

     Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-075>077-085-086.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ039-
     046-060-061-072>074-082>084.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ087.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ005-
     006-017-018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ007-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Pfannkuch


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