Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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136
FXUS63 KGID 111124
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
524 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SO FAR IT HAS MADE IT
ACROSS MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE KANSAS PORTION.

THE FIRST CONCERN WITH THIS IS THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF SNOW MELTING
YESTERDAY SO THERE IS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM
THE NORTH AND FAIRLY LIGHT. WITH THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG. THE HRRR AND THE SREF BOTH HAVE
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN THE WEST. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
INDICATION OF ANY FOG. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH A
FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE
VISIBILITY DROPS AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
SEEMS TO BE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ALSO HAVE
EASTERLY WINDS AND THE CURRENT WINDS ARE MORE NORTH.

THERE COULD BE A LITTLE OF THE PATCHY FOG THAT LINGERS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
RECEDE TO THE EAST AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MOVE THE CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY COLD BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CAUSING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...THE LOWEST LEVELS
REMAIN THE MOST SATURATED...BUT EARLY ON THERE IS ENOUGH DEPTH AND
IT IS COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST.

A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE OVER NORTH AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE COLUMN OF AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS.

SUNDAY AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA.

ANOTHER BRIEF DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 50S BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
CEILINGS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE COULD BE A FEW IN AND
OUT PERIODS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB



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