362
FXUS63 KGID 220828
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
328 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Today...An area of sfc high pressure will slide across the
southern plains resulting in light westerly winds across our
forecast area through much of the day. The wind will eventually
become more southerly by late afternoon or evening. Overall this
will be a warming wind for us and thus expect a nice temperature
recovery after a cold start to the day. Afternoon highs should be
into the upper 60s for most areas to even a few lower 70s across
northern Kansas under clear skies.

Tonight...The next short wave will track into the Dakotas and
will likely send at least a few high clouds our way based on
RH values in several models. Therefore, increased sky cover above
the blend to take it from clear to mostly clear, but overall not a
big deal. A sfc trough will move through most areas after midnight
turning the sfc wind to northwesterly. It will be a more mild
night with lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The main story in the long term will be variable temperatures as we
remain in an active pattern aloft. This will ultimately end with a
shot of the coldest air we`ve seen this year arriving Thursday
afternoon and lasting into the weekend. The other concern is for
near-critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday. See the
fire weather section for more details on this.

On Monday, models are in good agreement of an upper level located
over the upper great plains and gradually deepening southward into
the area. In association with this, a cold front will push through
the area, making for another very windy day. Northwesterly flow will
continue on Tuesday as the upper trough shifts eastward with time.
Highs in the 50s to 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s are
expected Monday and Tuesday. Wind gusts in the 40 MPH range are

On Wednesday, it still appears that ridging will briefly take hold
and allow highs to reach back into the 70s. With light winds, this
will likely be the nicest day of the work week.

This mild weather will be short-lived, though. A potent upper trough
will push a cold front through the area Thursday, before it
eventually cuts off across the north-central CONUS. This will lead
to the coldest days we`ve seen so far this season on Friday and
Saturday. Highs in the upper 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s should
be expected across the entire area.

The potential for precipitation looks relatively minor, but we will
continue to monitor the Friday and Saturday timeframe
closely...especially if the upper low trends farther southward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The wind will be much lighter today and generally from the west
through much of the day becoming more southerly by late afternoon.
The thin high clouds at present will thin out and we should see
clear skies through much of the day with scattered mid to high
clouds moving back in this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons across the entire area. Widespread winds in the
20 to 30 MPH range with gusts to around 40 MPH are expected. Model
consensus RH values bottom out at 20-30 percent, but there is still
a little uncertainty on this. Strong northwest flow may limit high
temperatures enough to keep RH values on the higher end of the
range, but, at the same time, the model consensus has a tendency to
be too high with RH values during strong mixing days.

Keep an eye on upcoming forecast packages as confidence increases
and a fire weather watch or a red flag warning may end up being
necessary for parts of the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels