Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 281712
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS RATHER
LIMITED...MAINLY AFFECTING WEBSTER...NUCKOLLS AND JEWELL
COUNTIES...SOME RESPECTABLE PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE
OBSERVED...INCLUDING JUST OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED IN
GUIDE ROCK. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN AS OF THIS HOUR...AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AROUND NOON. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
THINS A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MORNING FORECAST. OTHER THAN
REMOVING REMAINING MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LATEST UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALTHOUGH ONLY AFFECTING A VERY LOCALIZED PORTION OF THE CWA (THUS
FAR) MAINLY IN WEBSTER/JEWELL COUNTIES...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT FINALLY SPRING UP
BETWEEN 6-7 AM WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS...FORECAST MODELS
HAD BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY AT THE "LAST MINUTE" DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS...ONLY TO HAVE IT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE BOTTOM LINE:
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED BACK INTO THE MORNING
FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE
MONITORING TO SEE HOW LONG THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY ACTUALLY LASTS
INTO THE DAY. AGAIN...CERTAINLY THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
PRETTY LIMITED (MEANING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY)...AND NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG LET ALONE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD CATCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER
RAIN THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
WEST...WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THE
TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.