000
FXUS63 KGID 092328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS HAVE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED ARE AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM YORK TO PHILLIPSBURG. THE
WINDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPERATURES DECREASE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WILL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ON MONDAY SPRING FEVER WILL
TAKE OVER. EVEN WITH A LITTLE COOL ADVECTION IN THE MORNING BEHIND
THE TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BROAD/WEAK SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL REALLY
FEEL LIKE SPRING. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON WINDS/PCPN CHANCES TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SE FM THE NC ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE COLD
FROPA...WITH THE FRONT THRU OUR CWA BY MID MORNING.  3HR PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 3 TO 6MB AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS REMAINING
STRONG...LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THE DAY IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ALONG THE MID
H7 TROUGH.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO
FALL AS SNOW BUT MELT TOWARDS THE SURFACE IN THE WARMER LLVL
TEMPERATURES.  HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AS GROUND TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WHEN PCPN FALLS.  IN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WENT WITH A
NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WITH TEMPS STEADYING/FALLING DURING THE DAY.

AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY...IT WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES RAPIDLY END. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HEIGHTS RISING IN ITS WAKE.
A DRY...MILD WEATHER REGIME IN NW FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NORMAL TO
ABOVE. NEXT WAVE/SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT PCPN CHCS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 20KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25KTS...THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF...BUT WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY POST-SUNSET AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS TO YORK NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>075-082>084.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...JCB