000
FXUS63 KGID 070622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND IF THERE WILL BE
ANY SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A
STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW. WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA. WINDS IN THE WEST WILL BE A BIT MORE AND THERE WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL DROP TO -15 TO -20 ACROSS THE WEST.

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW
IN THE FAR WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS
THAT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS AND GET SNOWFALL TO THE
SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FULLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR
REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A 140KT H25 JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND REALLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY THE TIME
SATURATION OCCURS...WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT A 12 HOUR OR SO TIME
FRAME FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT...DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. THE MID LEVEL WAVE
WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BY ANY MEANS BUT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AND
HIGH SNOW WATER RATIOS OF AROUND 20 TO ONE...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO ACCUMULATE SOME SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES STILL
APPEAR IN THE BALL PARK WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE EAST WHERE
SNOW/LIFT LINGERS LONGER.

THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK.  THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER MONDAY AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ATTEMPT TO MODERATE TO SOME
DEGREE BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS IS GOOD NEWS IN TERMS OF STARTING
TO DISLODGE SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR...BUT IF WE HAVE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OR SNOW ON THE GROUND AS EXPECTED...WE WILL NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS UNTIL AROUND TUESDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS
WARM ABOUT 10C FROM THIS WEEKEND.  FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
NORTHWESTERLY MID WEEK WITH THE MAIN VORTEX LOCATED IN THE HUDSON
BAY...AND AS ENERGY TRANSLATES AROUND THE SYSTEM...COLD AIR BACKS IN
AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS RISE MORE SO HEADING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S WHICH MAY SEEM BALMY AFTER A WEEK OF ARCTIC
AIR.  THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND A
WEEK FROM NOW AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TURN THE WIND FROM NORTHERLY TO EAST PRIOR TO DAWN.
EXPECT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING
AND THEN REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO LOWER BY
LATE EVENING WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL JUST AFTER THE TAF VALID PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY