Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

This morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue,
although short-term models actually have most of the morning hours
as a relative "lull" in precipitation intensity. The thunderstorm
threat will diminish from northwest to southeast late this morning
into the afternoon.

Heading into this afternoon and evening, I expect coverage of rain
to increase once again as upper level trough starts to move through
the area. That said, the 850mb boundary will be farther southeast,
so I expect the heaviest band of rain to be southeast of a line from
Osborne to Geneva.

Cloud cover, rain, and north winds should keep high temperatures in
the 50s and low 60s across the entire area today.

Tonight into Tuesday morning, rain showers will come to an end
from northwest to southeast. Most of the area will likely be dry
by around dawn Tuesday, but slight chances for rain will continue
across southeastern portions of the area into the early afternoon.
Additional precipitation will be minimal. Clearing skies should
allow temperatures to reach the 60s, and it should end up being a
very pleasant fall day for most.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The forecast this period focuses on the dry/seasonally cool period
through Friday followed by a return to rain chances for the weekend.

As skies clear late Tuesday, shortwave ridging will take hold
through Friday. Actually the forecast area is sort of caught in
between northwest flow to the east and the cut off upper low to the
west/southwest. That will lead to a weakish flow aloft and pretty
nice weather with highs averaging from 67 to 73 degrees, clear to
partly cloudy skies and generally light winds. By the weekend, the
upper low to the west meanders northeast and gets caught up in the
upper flow resulting in a trough moving across the region. Mid level
lapse rates are marginal on Saturday but steepen a bit Sunday. Small
chances for rain showers are now in the forecast for the weekend,
with isolated thunderstorms for Sunday. Will have to watch
temperatures next weekend as they may be cooler than current
forecast if the rain pans out. Stretching out a bit further, next
week looks pretty decent as well with seasonal temperatures as the
area is in between the trough to the east and southwest flow to the
west trying to work into the western U.S. No signs of any freezing
temperatures through the first week or so of October. Actually,
potential development of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska the first
couple weeks of October could set us up for a mild/dry stretch into
the middle of the month. Should be a positive for harvest after
this period of wet weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The main band of preciptiation continues to slide off to the east
at midday, with the terminal areas on its eastern edge. This trend
will continue, so have precip going as a VC mention through this
evening, then drying things out. Winds are expected to remain
northerly through the period, topping out around 15 MPH. Cloud
cover is the biggest headache of this TAF. Area obs have
meandering either side of 1000 ft, between IFR and MVFR, with
guidance/model time heights showing this continuing through most
of the period. Decided to be on the pessimistic side of things and
kept the IFR mention going.




SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Moritz
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