Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160601
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WINDS DECREASING AS THE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECT THE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH WINDS BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH AS WELL AS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION IN THE SAME LAYER AS THE
MOISTURE. WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WORKWEEK WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIT OR MISS THUNDERSTORM...THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL
BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT SEASONAL WEATHER.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED OVER THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE HUDSON BAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD AND EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE
INTO CALIFORNIA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AS THE WARMER
AIR SPREADS EASTWARD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
70S/MID 80S WED/THURS AND WELL INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.  THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT CLOSER...OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCES FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE BETTER CHCS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THE LOWEST IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
KANSAS...AND THERE IS JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AND EVEN THE LLVL JET IS WEAK. IT IS HARD TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY
AND WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW CHCS FOR AN ISOLATED STORM FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES. THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS DECENT BUT NOT
REAL EXCITED ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS OUR REGION AND
GOOD MID LEVEL WAA IS DEPICTED AND LLVL JET WILL BE STRONGER.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG WITH
SHEAR AROUND 40KTS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG STORM COMPARED
TO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORKWEEK TURNS MORE INTERESTING AS REMNANTS/MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE ARE DRAWN INTO THE FLOW AND WORK ONTO THE
PLAINS REGION.  THE GFS IS RATHER ROBUST IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE
ORGANIZED/INTACT THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND HAVE TRENDED MORE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM MODEL SOLUTIONS.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS BY THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND.  THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FROPA/SYSTEM
IN THE FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR CONVECTION
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
LATE SUMMER SETUP AND IF MODELS HOLD TRUE THAT TROPICAL ODILE
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO.

REMNANT CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLER AIR BACKS IN FROM THE EAST AS THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES TO
A WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S HEADING INTO THE
START OF FALL WHICH BEGINS MONDAY SEPTEMBER 22ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN BOTH VFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE
IF ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION...THERE IS SOME MAJOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT A POTENTIALLY EXPANSIVE CEILING RATHER
CLOSE TO THE VFR-MVFR HEIGHT BREAKPOINT COULD MOVE IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRESENTLY...A DECK OF CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL ARE
LOCATED NEARLY 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS...AND THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND NORTHEAST WITH TIME. TAKING A BEST STAB AT TIMING...HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET AND DEPARTURE OF POTENTIAL LOW-VFR CEILING A
FEW HOURS VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH. VISIBILITY WISE...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME VERY PATCHY
LIGHT FOG COMING AND GOING EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE ANY
SUB-VFR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD BE QUITE FLEETING AND THUS WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...VERY LIGHT BREEZES
THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING
DEEPENS...WITH MUCH OF THE DAY FEATURING A SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED
BREEZE OF 10-15KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE
A BIT FROM A PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN THE EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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