Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 151715
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...A VERY NICE WARM-UP TODAY BUT WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY WILDFIRES IF THEY DEVELOP...

ALOFT: THE UPPER TROF AXIS WAS NOW E OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENT
NW FLOW HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WV
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NW.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PRECEDING IT WILL MOVE THRU TODAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROF AND PV STREAMER WILL ADVANCE INTO NEB/SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE PV
STREAMER.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WEAK
FRONT BISECTED NEB FROM NW-SE. A CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER ALBERTA.
THIS LOW WILL TRANSLATE SE AND ESSENTIALLY REFORM OVER WRN SD LATE
TODAY...AND CROSS SD TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND
YESTERDAY`S CHILLY AIR MASS TO RETREAT TO THE N AND E. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BISECTING THE REGION BY DAWN WED.

THE FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING /RFW/
FOR N-CNTRL KS AND EXTENDED N INTO S-CNTRL NEB UP TO MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG HWY 6.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: ESSENTIALLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH VERY LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR 730-830 AM...JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL.

TODAY: A SUNNY START. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AS THE WARM
SECTOR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. BECOMING WINDY BY MIDDAY. S WINDS
WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL. CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDDAY WITH OTHER LAYERS OF MID CLOUDS MOVING IN. CEILINGS WILL
DESCEND TO AROUND 15K FT. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY THOUGH.

THE LAST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A SW-NE SWATH OF SNOW STILL
ON THE GROUND FROM HOLDREGE TO GREELEY. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND IT HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FIRE WX: DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY VERY LOW /15-20F/ IN THE DRIEST
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS /DWPTS/ UPSTREAM OVER KS/OK/TX/CO/NM WERE
ALSO IN THE MID-UPR TEENS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DEN/AMA/ABQ ALL
SUGGEST DWPTS WILL DROP FURTHER TO BETWEEN 8-14F. NOT SURE IF THAT
WILL TRANSLATE 100% TO HERE...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS IT WILL BE
VERY DRY TO THE S TODAY. I STRUGGLED WITH TODAY`S DWPTS MOST OF
THE SHIFT. THEY TYPICALLY ARE NOT MODELED WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS REQUIRES SOME FCSTR
INTUITION AND SOME GUTS. I USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 05Z/06Z/07Z
RAP DEWPOINTS WHICH IS A BOLD FCST. THIS MAINTAINS AND/OR TAKES
OUR DWPTS INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM LIES IN THE SWATH OF SNOWPACK. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO DEAL WITH IT AND THE
SUBLIMATION/MELTING THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. WITH STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION...THEY ARE PROBABLY TOO MOIST OVER THE SNOWPACK AND IT
IS HARD TO KNOW HOW THE AMBIENT DRY AIR WILL BE MODIFIED BY THIS
MICROCLIMATE...N OF THE SNOWPACK. I KEPT DWPTS AROUND 20F OVER THE
NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE
FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

THE FUEL STATUS MAY HAVE CHANGED OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH THE RECENT
MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIP SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST STATUS NOT
IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE...BELIEVE IT WAS PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE RFW
OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.

TONIGHT: A WINDY MILD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL
SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE 40S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU DRY.
BECAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...THE RFW EXPIRATION WAS PUSHED
BACK TO 8 PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG
TERM FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCURRIES BY AND SWINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

THE MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...AND HENCE...PLACING MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND WE ARE NOT FAR FROM THE
PROJECTED NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. IT WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH DISTANCE TO PLACE OUR CWA IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
HOWEVER...SINCE TRENDS ARE FIRM AT THIS TIME...LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED
UP A TAD AS WELL...AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE 40S. LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE
FORECAST OF THE FARTHER SOUTHERN TREK...AND EVERYBODY REMAINS UNDER
AN INCH IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS FORECAST BY SOME NUMERICAL
MODELS TO TREK OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO MEAN MUCH BUSINESS.

A WARM-UP IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS A A QUICK-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY. AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
QUICKLY BY. BY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.

ANY RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING LARGER
RIDGE...AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO MONDAY...AND PROBABLY BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STEADY INTO
THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE TERMINAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO FOR TONIGHT...LLWS IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ074>077-
     082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...FAY



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