Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 251127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE SURFACE LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATER TODAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGHS
REACH THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS NOT IN QUESTION. DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF SNOW SINCE MOST MODELS WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION AS
IT GETS CLOSER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY. THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY A SOLID END OF THE YEAR ARCTIC
INTRUSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

REGARDING FRIDAY...FIRST THING TO NOTE IS COLDER AIR WILL ALREADY BE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN. MODELS SHOW A SOLID LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONTINUED WITH LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CONCERNS FORECAST MAY REFLECT TOO
MUCH SNOW CHANCE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
HOLDING OFF A BIT WITH THE LIGHT SNOW ONSET. THOUGH NOT IN THE
FORECAST...SOUNDINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST COULD SUPPORT A
BIT OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THAT GOING FORWARD. IN GENERAL THE UPPER SUPPORT IN TERMS OF
AN ORGANIZED MID/UPPER LOW IS WEAK AND DOESN/T REALLY GET OVERLY
ORGANIZED. THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING H250 JET STREAK OF 125KTS NOSE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. BELIEVE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION INCREASE SEEN IN MODEL TRENDS TOWARD EVENING. PROBABLY
WON/T KNOW JUST WHERE AN EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SNOW BAND WILL SET UP
UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO IT ACTUALLY HAPPENING. OVERALL...SNOW
AMOUNTS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH...UP TO MAYBE 2"...
ALTHOUGH ABOUT AN INCH WILL BE MOST COMMON. AT THIS POINT...THIS
LOOKS TO BE SUB ADVISORY TYPE EVENT WITH SUCH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LIMITED OVERALL SCOPE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY OUT OF THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PASSING OF 700MB TROUGH BY 12Z.

THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A STRONG PATTERN SIGNAL FOR RIDGING...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE BASICALLY DAYS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND THUS NOT TOO BAD.  MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND
WE MAY SEE A BIT OF REBOUND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BACK TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY/S SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE...AND SUNDAY
WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE AS WELL.

ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN FORCE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS SAGGING COLD AIR TURNS INTO SURGING COLD AIR BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD STRETCH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...AFTER
WHICH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THOUGH SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAD NEAR
ZERO/BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURE BACK IN MID NOVEMBER...THIS AIR WILL
BRING THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. LOW
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH...WITH 1050MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR HIGHS...TEENS MAY
BE A STRUGGLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SNOWFALL WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIGHT AT THIS POINT...AND FORECAST REFLECTS ONLY 20-30 PERCENT LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LESS THAN
AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AT THIS POINT MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

CIRRUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THICKENED DURING
THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
HAVE LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.