000
FXUS63 KGID 030521
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1121 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW
IN THE COLDEST START TO MARCH SINCE 2002 AND ONE OF THE COLDEST
STARTS ON RECORD...

ALOFT: MODESTLY SPLIT LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING E THRU CO/NM INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW.
THIS TROF WILL HEAD E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SE STATES
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE WRN USA.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO OR/NRN CA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL MISS THE
REGION FAR TO THE NW...BUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE PV STREAMER WILL MOVE
THRU TOMORROW...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE.

SURFACE: ELONGATED AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN CANADA S INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL SHRINK AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW. THIS HIGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN
HOW COLD TEMPS GET TONIGHT. BREAKING/SETTING RECORD LOWS IS ON THE
TABLE.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ENCROACH
FROM THE N OF NEB HWY 92. SOME LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. TEMPS DID GET ABOVE THE ALL-TIME RECORD
COLDEST FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON RECORDS.

TONIGHT: UNSEASONABLE BITTER COLD! IF OUR TEMPS WORK OUT AS FCST...
LOWS WILL BE NEARLY 40F COLDER THAN WHERE THEY TYPICALLY ARE FOR
EARLY MARCH /LOW-MID 20S/.

THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING CLOUDS.
SOME MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE UPSTREAM OVER WY...BUT THEY
WILL BE MOVING INTO SUBSIDENCE. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INFLICT A MAJOR IMPACT
ON TEMPS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS WELL...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS.

TEMPS: LOWS WERE -13 TO -20 OVER THE DAKOTA`S THIS MORNING. AND
WHILE THERE IS SNOWCOVER UP THERE...MOST OF IT IS A WEEK OLD. THE
OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS AIR MASS. THE 850
MB TEMP WAS -21C AT GRAND ISLAND THIS MORNING. BASED ON REANALYSIS
DATA...-21 AND COLDER HAS ONLY OCCURRED 4 TIMES IN THE PAST 34 YRS.
AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FRZG FOR ABOUT 5 HRS TODAY
ALONG AND N OF HWY 6...I BELIEVE WE NEED TO FCST RECORD COLD.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OVER MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB.

LOW TEMPS WERE DROPPED 4-7F FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

A WIND CHILL /WC/ ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E...A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR 1-2 HRS OF
-30 TO -35 WC`S IN THE 6AM-9AM TIMEFRAME. JUST AS TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
MORNING RUSH.

SNOW: A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS DEVELOPED ON SATELLITE WITH A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF DEFORMATION -SN OVER WRN KANSAS. THIS HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER N THAN THE 12Z NAM-DERIVED HI-RES MODELS FCST. THE
17Z HRRR HAS IT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TOUCH OF -SN OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY FROM
STOCKTON-OSBORNE-BELOIT SOUTHWARD. A CHANCE OF -SN IS NOW IN THE
FCST. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO DROP ESE WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY DRAG THE SNOW SHIELD AWAY FROM N-CNTRL KS AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

TOMORROW: HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN AT DAWN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF. SO OVERALL EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND
BLUSTERY DAY. HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WARM UP IS UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE HOURLY TEMPS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

WENT ABOVE NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ON WIND SPEEDS. AS A LEE-SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO 16 MB ACROSS NEB. THE
GFS/EC/NAM/SREF HAVE A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AND BELIEVE WE
WILL TAP INTO THE UNDERSIDE OF IT.

MIXING HEIGHTS ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM WHICH
HAS ITS SNOWCOVER BIAS. EVEN IF WE USE THE CONSERVATIVE GFS MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 2K FT...THAT STILL WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN 30
KTS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4F FROM THE PRIOR GID FCST...ALONG AND W OF
HWY 281.

POST MORTEM: LAST NIGHT`S SNOW RISK OVER CNTRL/NRN KS ENDED UP
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICTED. THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS THAT ARE DRIVEN BY JET STREAK AND FRONTAL FORCING /IN THE
MID-LEVELS/ ARE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO FCST. THERE IS NO LOW PRES
FROM WHICH WE DERIVE OUR TRADITIONAL FCST CUES. THESE ISOLATED
NARROW SNOW BANDS HAVE VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE HI-RES MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT THEM VERY WELL /WHEN AND IF THEY ARE CORRECT/. YOU CAN
THROW OUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. THEY CANT HANDLE THESE SMALL
FEATURES AND ARE WAYYYY TO BROAD WITH THEIR QPF. THE BAND DID
DEVELOP BUT IT WAS MODELED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG/NEAR I-70
WHICH IT DID NOT. IT WAS TRANSIENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AS IS TYPICAL SEVERAL
PERIODS HAD HIGH/LOW TEMPS TWEAKED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS 2-5
DEGREES...BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF A TRANSITION TO MILDER WEATHER
REMAINS INTACT. THAT BEING SAID...ITS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE A
CASE WHERE EACH DAY GETS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...AS DAYS SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING EITHER
SMALL OR POTENTIALLY LARGER BUMPS IN THE ROAD. MEANWHILE...BOTH
THURSDAY AND VERY PRELIMINARILY NEXT SUNDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CANDIDATES FOR THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 60S.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT 20-30 POPS CONTINUE FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A NEW SLIGHT CHANCE
HAS BEEN ADDED TO NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY DAYTIME...MAKING NOW A
TOTAL OF 4 PERIODS MENTIONING SOME RISK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN BOTH OF THESE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE TUES
NIGHT-WED POSSIBILITY. FOR ONLY BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS STILL
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER 1) THERE IS EVEN MUCH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP AT ALL AND HENCE POPS KEPT LOW THUS FAR AND 2) IF PRECIP
DOES FALL...WHAT TYPE WILL IT ASSUME? KEEPING WITH THE REASONING
DISCUSSED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE KEPT ANY TUES-NIGHT WED PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNS IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX COULD COME INTO PLAY HERE AS WELL.
GIVEN TIME IS STILL ON OUR SIDE HERE WITH THIS POSSIBLE ROUND OF
PRECIP STILL BEING 48+ HOURS AWAY...WILL KEEP THE BASIC TYPES FOR
NOW AND AVOID CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AND/OR CAUSING UNDUE CONCERN AS THE MENTION OF MIXED-PHASE WINTRY
TYPES CAN SOMETIMES DO. AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PRECIP...ITS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK
SPECIFICS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS WITHIN 72
HOURS OF NOW HAVE TOSSED A VERY GENERIC COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH INTO THE OFFICIAL
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THE SAME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW PRECIP TYPE ROUTE WAS
USED WITH THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT POPS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE OF A TRUE SNOW EVENT WITH
LESS RISK OF MIXED-TYPES SHOULD IT OCCUR.

GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL AND STARTING WITH MONDAY
NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER
A BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT THAT DEFINES MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
AND STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CWA IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO SO SKY COVER IS GENERALLY
AIMED INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
AT LEAST 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY
MORNING BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE
VALUES...STILL AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 9-14 ABOVE ZERO.

FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL STORY IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF FORCING
STILL WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAVE KEPT IT
DRY...AND EVEN RAISED TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THAT CLOUDS ARE NOT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ADVERTISED HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH...BUT ITS
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE LAST FEW NAM
RUNS APPEAR WAY TOO COLD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES GROW...BUT VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP OF AT LEAST SOME VARIETY
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MOVING IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEGITIMATE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS...OR ESSENTIALLY NOTHING
WHATSOEVER AS ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z GEM MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIP OR LACK THEREOF WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHS WED...AND WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW OPTED TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WITH
GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO FEATURE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTS TO DEVELOP.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW/GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON THURS...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
AWHILE...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-UPPER 50S. THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A POTENTIALLY
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...AND AS
A RESULT FRIDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES...BUT STILL UPPER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR NOW. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...SLIGHT POPS
MAINLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW PER THE LATEST
ECMWF BUT LESS-SO THE GFS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND ASSUMING THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT PRECIP MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY DAYTIME...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
AGAIN TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SATURDAY HIGHS
WITH A RANGE OF 40S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS
COOLER THAN THIS. VERY PRELIMINARILY...SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
OUTRIGHT-WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...AND FOR NOW HAVE
WIDESPREAD 50S IN NEB ZONES AND LOW 60S IN KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS DURING THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.

VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS TODAY:

GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN 1960 (TIED)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (TIED)

* BOTH OF THESE RECORDS CAN BE BROKEN IF TEMPS DROP BELOW -5F
  BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

VULNERABLE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY:

GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)

VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR TOMORROW 3/3:

GRAND ISLAND: -16 IN 1960
HASTINGS: -10 IN 1960

ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:

GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-073>076.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ060-072-077-
     082>087.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB