Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 250442
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
HAVE DECREASED.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...NEAR WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS LOCATED. THERE COULD BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING. THERE
ARE A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT.

LATER THIS EVENING EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
FRONT NEAR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS
STILL HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE AREA FURTHER NORTHWEST IN THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING BECOMING A CONCERN IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. WHILE
THE LATEST HPC FORECAST CONTINUES TO PAINT EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN MONDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME OF THESE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...EXPECT THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO CANADA WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTLES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WHILE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WAS NOT ABLE
TO DRY OUT ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD/AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO A BIT OF BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
EAST...WITH CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO DRY OUT UNTIL THE COMING
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
INCREASING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS
RIDGING ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. EVENSO...MODELS ARE QUICK TO
BREAK DOWN ANY RIDGING...AND ANY WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AND BRIEF.

SEVERE WEATHER WISE...THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A 5 PERCENT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT SAID...BETTER SHEAR
WITH THE JET APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE BOTH DAYS ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO...THINK THAT MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE MORE ACTIVE
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATTER HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHEN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY


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