Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
321 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Colder air filtered south during the overnight hours behind a
cold frontal boundary and the gusty north winds have begun to
subside as surface high pressure builds across the plains.
Temperatures are noticeably colder with readings averaging in the
teens and wind chills in the single digits.

Cloud cover has been slow to decrease with the clearing line
progressing south from northern Nebraska. Once the clouds depart,
the majority of the day should see good insolation, with mid/high
level clouds then increasing again this evening/tonight. Have kept
temperatures pretty conservative and below guidance for highs today
under the influence of the surface ridge in the cooler airmass.

Look for the surface ridge axis to migrate southeast this
afternoon/evening allowing for return flow of southerly winds and
a slight moderation in airmass heading into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Temperatures trend up Saturday with warming aided by a westerly
downslope wind component, ahead of a cold front which moves through
during the afternoon. Mixing deepens by midday, leading to fairly
breezy conditions. Temperatures are expected to climb above
seasonal normals and average in the 40s/50s with the warmest
readings across north central Kansas. Low relative humidity values
are forecast to drop to the low 20th percentile across portions
of north central Kansas and will continue to mention the potential
for near critical fire weather conditions.

The subtle cooling behind the front Saturday will be shortlived as
the boundary lifts as a warm front by Sunday morning. Flow aloft
becomes zonal while low level flow will be steady from the south,
drawing warm air north and setting the stage for warm weather on
Sunday. Currently we have highs in the 50s and 60s on Sunday, well
above normal, however will need to keep an eye on cloud cover as
the NAM suggests low clouds lifting north through eastern Kansas
during the day. At this time, models keep these low clouds to our
east. Assuming we warm as expected, portions of north central
Kansas could see another day with near critical fire weather
conditions and will continue to mention in the HWO.

The forecast turns more interesting Sunday night and Monday as the
next cold front crosses the plains. Low clouds and cold air
arrive Sunday night/Monday and lift associated with the boundary
and progressing mid level shortwave trough are expected to
generate light precipitation. Model forecast soundings indicate
saturated low levels while the mid levels remain dry which would
lead to the precipitation type favoring freezing drizzle or
drizzle depending upon surface temperatures, which cool with time.

Beyond Monday, small chances for light snow remain in the forecast
into Tuesday as another disturbance and reinforcing shot of cold air
arrive. Temperatures favor cold/below normal readings until at least
mid week, and any warming toward the latter part of the week looks
to be shortlived as the pattern aloft remains progressive.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A cold frontal boundary crossed the terminals and was noticeable
with strong and gusty north winds. Winds will remain steady/gusty
through much of the night before subsiding Friday morning as
surface high pressure settles in. The surface ridge axis will
quickly migrate east Friday afternoon allowing for return flow of
south/southwest winds. A period of MVFR clouds are expected the
first part of the night behind the front, then low clouds will
depart with mainly clear skies or high level clouds Friday.





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