Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 260600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALOFT: A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE WESTERLIES ZONAL OVER THE NRN USA. A LOW
WAS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT-TOMORROW
AND WHILE IT WILL BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE FCST AREA THRU THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE ANOTHER COMFORTABLY
COOL/LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND SCOTT HAS THE DETAILS BELOW.

SURFACE: THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASKATCHEWAN LOW WAS ADVANCING SE THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TONIGHT. FOR WHAT
IT`S WORTH THE 09Z SREF TAKES THE FRONT DEEPER INTO KS THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (ROUGHLY TOP-RSL-DDC). A MUCH
STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO NRN NEB TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

IF YOU`RE NOT A FAN OF THE HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. THE DWPT AT
CHADRON WAS 40F AT 2 PM!

RAIN: 09Z SREF QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR .01 QPF IN 3 HRS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSTMS THRU 6 PM SAT. THAT DOESNT MEAN THE CHANCE IS ZERO. A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF CO/WY WITH THE MEAN FLOW TAKING THEM INTO
SD AND NRN NEB. THIS COULD POSE FCST COMPLICATIONS FOR TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY WITH WISPS OF CIRRUS. HOT!
ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT IN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

WE CANCELLED 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY
AT 205 PM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT WAS PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS AND
THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY CONTS AS
POSTED.

TONIGHT: BLOW-OFF/CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
CO/WY WILL STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A P/CLOUDY
NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD ONE WITH LOWS 69-75F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7F
ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT: THE EFFECTS OF THE TSTMS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS NRN NEB ARE A
WILD CARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL THE SRN FRINGE COULD BRUSH THE NRN
FCST AREA FROM ORD-FULLERTON-OSCEOLA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE REMNANT COLD
POOLS CAN EXHIBIT STRANGE BEHAVIOR WHEN THERE`S NO PROGRESSIVE
TROF ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONFIDENT...BUT DECIDED TO
EXPAND A LOW CHANCE OF A TSTM TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER 4 PM.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE WITH NO COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED. TSTM
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ODDS CERTAINLY FAVOR A DRY
FCST. LFC HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT. SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE A
LOT. HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED TSTMS SOMEHOW MANAGE TO FORM...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. DUE TO THE THREAT
OF TSTMS BEING SO LIMITED...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED 1" HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE SIZE OF HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE
MUCH LARGER. SREF MEAN MLCAPE IS 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
40-50 KTS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 100+ FOR MOST OF N-CNTRL KS. HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN N OF I-80 WHERE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE DWPTS WERE PROBABLY 10F TOO HIGH S AND W OF SMITH CENTER.
SO THEY WERE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

HEAT: THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY E OF A
LINE FROM FROM GENEVA NEB-OSBORNE KS. NRN/PHG/HLC ARE ALL IN THE
UPR 50S AT 3 PM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED CLOSER TO 850MB OR 800MB. THIS
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
DYNAMICS WHICH ALSO BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
OUR AREA POST-FROPA...INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
COULD STILL HELP PROMOTE SOME RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-3000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN EXISTENCE
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL...THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF ~50KT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL SET UP AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER VARIOUS
POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST
PART.

LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION BECOMES SMALLER...THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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