Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 100523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ASSESSING THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST AS WE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
SMALL IMPULSES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH ITS AXIS
MORE THAN LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA...NOT HEADING EAST INTO THE CWA
UNTIL MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT
TIME WILL BE INSTABILITY. THERE IS AND WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS. IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH MUCH MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...BUT OUR FAR WEST MIGHT GET INTO THE REALM OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. SOME CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE LBF CWA AND HAS PROMPTED
SOME WARNINGS...BUT STORMS FIZZLE AS THEY GET CLOSE TO OUR CWA. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THIS COULD HELP CONVECTION KEEP
GOING AND WILL GIVE US A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO OUR AREA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT A MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT...IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS.

ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND I HAVE INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG WITH AMOUNTS OF RAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS LOOKS A LITTLE SLUGGISH TO GET OUT
OF HERE IN THE MORNING AND I HAVE HELD ON TO CONSIDERABLE CHANCES OF
RAIN FOR THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS DRY...ESPECIALLY FROM SUBSIDENCE JUST BEHIND THE EXPECTED
EXITING CONVECTION. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...WIND...AND SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
RECENTLY AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK
WEST...ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ONTARIO REGION. THIS SETUP LEADS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION FUELING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THATS EXACTLY WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES POPPING UP EVERY OTHER DAY TO EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. STARTING
OFF FRIDAY...ONE OF THOSE DISTUBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL SAG...SOME
MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD BE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SIGNALING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS NEBRASKA VERSUS UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
ACROSS KANSAS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE WORKWEEK WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE KEAR TERMINAL IF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL GET INTO
THE TERMINAL. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THEM TO STAY TO THE WEST. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THEN INCREASE AGAIN
LATER TODAY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB


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