Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
353 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An upper low pressure system in southeast Colorado will track across
Oklahoma through tonight, a little farther south than models
indicated 24 hours ago. Scattered showers ahead of the system have
continued through the pre dawn hours across much of Nebraska with
the main frontogenetic precipitation beginning to organize across
western Nebraska.

The cold frontal boundary will gradually advance southeast today,
reaching our southern zones by evening.  Low cloud cover, rain
showers and cooler air behind the boundary will bring little diurnal
temperature rise across our western zones where afternoon highs
should average in the 40s, whereas farther south the dry slot nosing
into our southern zones will allow for a period of insolation and
temps should reach the 70s ahead of the front.

For precipitation today, high resolution models suggest a potential
lull or hit or miss activity for much of the day, with rain showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm occurring along our western zones in
the mid level frontogenesis. Also there is a few hour window of
opportunity for thunderstorms to develop across our southeast
zones in proximity to the cold front and if storms can go in this
area, cannot rule out the potential for a strong storm.

The precipitation begins to wind down from west to east heading
into tonight as the upper low system departs. The NAM remains the
most aggressive with the cold air with perhaps a rain/snow mix for
Dawson county before ending, but there is just not support from
other models with the airmass cold enough for snow this far east
and have kept precipitation type as liquid. Cooler and drier air
behind the system will result in a chillier night with lows
averaging in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with multiple
chances for precipitation.

At the start of the period Saturday morning, models are in pretty
good agreement showing the main upper level low pressure system
located in the KS/MO/OK/AR border area. Moisture wrapping around the
backside of the low will keep some small chances for showers around
eastern portions of the CWA through the first half of the day. As
the low moves further east into Missouri, precip is forecast to end
for the afternoon, but lingering light precip might not be too far
outside the CWA. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis will
start working its way in from the west during the day, with north-
northeasterly winds should diminish in speed. Skies across the
easterly half of the CWA look to remain mostly cloudy, the further
west you go the more sun you`ll see. High temperatures are forecast
to range from near 50 in the east to near 60 in the west.

Saturday night into at least part of the day on Sunday, the forecast
is dry, with shortwave ridging sliding through the Plains. Already
Sunday morning, the next upper level disturbance is knocking on the
door, at 12Z Sun located over eastern CO. Models in good agreement
taking the path of the system through KS, keeping the brunt of the
lift/precip chances across the southern half of the CWA. Precip will
slide off to the east Sunday night. Highs on Sunday remain in the
50s/low 60s.

Another "brief" lull in the forecast comes Monday/Monday night, as
once again upper level shortwave ridging between systems passes
through the Plains. Expecting to see a bit more in the way of sun,
highs are a few degrees warmer in the lower/mid 60s.

Unsettled weather returns for the remainder of the forecast period,
through Thursday night. At 12Z Tuesday, models are showing the next
upper level low moving through the Four Corners region. Lift is on
the increase during the day as the system slides east, ending the
day roughly over northern NM. At this point, the better precip
chances looking to be over the western half of the CWA. Over
Wed/Thurs, models not showing much change in its eastward trek,
crossing it mainly through OK, perhaps taking a slight northeast
turn into southern Missouri late in the day Thursday. Plenty of
uncertainty with just how much moisture spreads far enough north to
affect the CWA, with the ECMWF more generous with its QPF than the
GFS. Not much instability shown by models, so no mention of thunder
in the forecast. We`ll see how things trend in the coming days.
Highs Tue-Thurs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An low upper pressure system emerging from the Rockies and
crossing the Central/Southern plains will bring periodic chances
for showers and thunderstorms the next 24 hours. The convective
activity has mixed down strong winds aloft and occasional wind
gusts around 45kts are possible into the overnight hours in the
vicinity of the convection. Models are in decent agreement with
low clouds/stratus developing overnight and holding through the
taf period. Winds will shift north behind a cold front and gusts
near 30kts are possible.




LONG TERM...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Fay is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.