Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 272058
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
MINOR THINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS RESULTED
IN LIGHT WINDS AND A NICE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN CUMULUS FIELD ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY STILL DROP A SPRINKLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CU FIELD TO DISSIPATE LEAVING A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH...BUT EVENTUALLY WEST TOWARD DAWN AHEAD OF NEXT
QUICK MOVING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 7
AM...AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST AREA BY 1 PM. A NORTHERLY WIND WILL PICK
UP DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MAY GUST UP OVER 20 MPH FOR A FEW
HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MIXING...FULL SUNSHINE AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OFFSET ANY SLIGHTLY FRONTAL COOLING...AND
ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FROM A BIG-PICTURE OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...LITTLE HAS
REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
REASONABLY HIGH IN THE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY...BEFORE VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEARLY FOR NEARLY EVERY DAY AND NIGHT
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
WITH PREDICTING THE LIKELIHOOD AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
CHANCES IN A SUMMER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...MOST ALL OF
THE EXISTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (POPS) ARE ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH ONLY LIMITED AREAS AS HIGH AS 40
PERCENT. ALTHOUGH STILL FAR FROM A SURE THING...POTENTIALLY THE
BIGGEST CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERSUS THE FORECAST FROM
24 HOURS AGO IS THAT THURSDAY HAS GONE FROM BEING A "DRY"
DAY TO NOW FEATURING 30-40 POPS CWA-WIDE...AND THE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF/GFS MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THESE CHANCES MAY NEED RAMPED UP
MORE. REGARDING INDEPENDENCE DAY SATURDAY...WHICH IS MAKING ITS
FIRST OFFICIAL APPEARANCE AT THE VERY END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST...PLEASE DON/T GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN/CONCERNED ABOUT THE
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA YET...AS
MODELS ARE EXHIBITING THEIR TYPICAL DIFFERENCES THEY OFTEN DO A
WEEK OUT...AND THESE PRECIP CHANCES COULD EASILY TREND UPWARD OR
DOWNWARD AT TIMES OVER THE COMING DAYS AS NEXT WEEKEND COMES INTO
BETTER FOCUS.

AS FOR ANY CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-WEEK
ONWARD...CERTAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR LOOKS
AT LEAST AVERAGE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE IN STRENGTH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT LEAST ISOLATED...HIT-AND-MISS INSTANCES OF
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
ALL OF THESE STORM CHANCES ARE OUT IN THE DAY 4-7 RANGE...WE WILL
TAKE THE SAME APPROACH LOCALLY THAT THE LATEST SPC DAY 4-7 OUTLOOK
TAKES...MEANING ESSENTIALLY "PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" TO HANG YOUR
HAT ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAMES.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR MONDAY-SATURDAY ARE
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON
MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR 90S OCCURRING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK MAINLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
STATE LINE INTO KS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...TUESDAY IS THE CURRENT
CANDIDATE FOR BEING THE OVERALL-HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
AIMED NEAR-90 IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA AND MID-UPPER 90S IN
KS...WHILE THURSDAY IS THE VERY PRELIMINARY CANDIDATE FOR THE
OVERALL-COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NO MORE THAN LOW-MID
80S MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER OR
NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MATERIALIZE.
AGAIN...DON/T GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THE INDEPENDENCE DAY DETAILS
YET...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HIGHS ARE AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 80S
MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK TO AVERAGE
IN THE LOW-MID 60S ON MOST NIGHTS...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT IN
LINE WITH SEASONAL NORMALS.

NOW FINISHING WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY
DETAILS...WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THAT PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD ARE VERY SUBJECT TO FUTURE MODIFICATIONS:

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE EAST OF AN EXPANSIVE
MID-UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE PROMOTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZES...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF THE ENTIRE WEEK
IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...DESPITE THE LATEST GFS NOW PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES THAT HAS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.
IF ANYTHING...THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST PRESSES
EASTWARD SLIGHTLY...PROMOTING SLIGHT WARMING POTENTIAL VERSUS
SUNDAY.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THE FIRST
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK ARRIVE AT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
STARTS BEING FLATTENED BY THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE SMALL POPS CONTINUE MOST
AREAS...THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE 24 HOURS COULD
VERY WELL BE DRY WITH THE CWA SOMEWHAT "IN BETWEEN" DISTURBANCES
ALOFT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: AS COVERED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME
PERIOD IS SUDDENLY LOOKING A LOT "WETTER" THAN IT DID 24 HOURS
AGO...AS A SEASONABLY POTENT NORTHWEST-FLOW DISTURBANCE QUICKLY
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE A
QUICK-HITTER WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT DESPITE LINGERING POPS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS START TO
DIVERGE MORE AS IS TYPICAL...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MAINTAIN A GENERAL
CONTINUED NORTHWEST-FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THESE PASSING
DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE AS ORGANIZED AS THE ONE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
STICK WITH AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIME FOR
NOW...WITH PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING LIKELY AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 5K WILL BE NOTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KGRI
AND KEAR REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN. ON SUNDAY MORNING...A FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15KTS
BUT LITTLE OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AT MOST. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ



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