Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
305 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The main concern today looks to be cloud cover and how quickly it
will dissipate/erode eastward. Cloud cover will impact high

Low stratus has already begun to develop across southeast Nebraska
as of 3am, and its development looks to continue as
expected...spreading across the whole of south central and eastern
Nebraska by morning. Fog will be possible, with some areas of
drizzle...mainly across eastern sections possible as well. The fog
and drizzle should dissipate by mid morning. The higher resolution
guidance HRRR/RAP keep temperatures still warming into the upper
70s and low 80s across a good chunk of the forecast area with an
areas east of HWY 281 that had lower temps in the mid 70s due to
the lingering cloud cover. The NAM is more aggressive keeping the
cloud cover and has temperatures across much of the area in the
upper 60s and low to mid 70s. Have gone the slightly more
optimistic route with the blend of the HRRR/RAP for todays
temperatures, keeping just the slight area over eastern sections
(along/east of HWY 281) the cooler temps. This will have to be
watched throughout the day with how quickly the clouds erode

Again tonight, low clouds look to be the main game, patchy fog
will again be possible with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Aloft: Benign WSW flow will prevail until a shortwave trof moves
thru Wed eve. NW will follow in its wake Thu-Fri as a ridge and
subtropical high develops over the Wrn USA.

Surface: The cool front that moves thru today will be lifting back
thru the fcst area as a warm front Sun morning. The next cool front
will be approaching from the W and it will move into the fcst area
Sun eve. Its forward progress will slow as it become parallel to the
flow aloft. It won`t exit until Mon eve. High pres will then
gradually build into the region Tue-Wed...finally arriving overhead
Thu. Return flow will then develop Fri as the high departs to the
E and S.

No high-impact/hazardous wx is currently foreseen. Although fog
could be a concern Sun morning...but confidence is low.

Sensible wx highlights: temps way above normal Sun-Mon...then
turning cooler but still very nice Tue-Wed. Temps then turn below
normal Thu-Fri.

Stratus: a potential major complicating factor Sun morning. The
18Z/00Z NAM and GFS indicate low stratus over Ern Neb/KS with sfc
and boundary layer trajectories originating from these areas. So
even if stratus stays E of the fcst area...fog will be a possibility
with bagginess in the isobars. How quickly this erodes will have a
major impact on temps. If it takes until early afternoon to
dissipate...fcst high temps will bust.

Heat: would not be surprised to see low 90s over Phillips/Rooks
counties tomorrow.

There is no potential for appreciable rainfall. A few brief hit-or-
miss shwrs will be possible Wed as the upr trof moves thru. The 00Z
EC came in with continuing the possibility into Thu in the LFQ of a
strengthening 110 jet upr-lvl jet streak behind the front. Not quite
sure I buy this yet as it doesn`t have much support from other
models or the 12Z/14 EC.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The main aviation forecast concerns are low clouds, reductions in
visibility, the chance for drizzle and low level wind shear. Low
stratus is building northward from eastern Kansas. This is
expected to spread westward across south central Nebraska,
impacting KGRI and potentially KEAR. Currently only have dropped
KGRI to MVFR and left KEAR at VFR for now. How far west the lowest
clouds move is the main question. There could be some patchy fog
develop along the edge of the stratus, but have currently kept the
visibility in VFR. Drizzle is possible, but the best chances will
be east of KGRI and have left it out of the TAF at this time. Have
kept low level wind shear in the TAFs at both terminals through
the mid morning hours. Think skies will be slow to clear out,
remaining mostly cloudy through a good chunk of the day, but
lifting to VFR by mid morning at KGRI. Skies will clear from west
to east and winds will become northerly as the weak front makes
its way through the area during the afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Billings Wright is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.