Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 260014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
REACHES FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE NERN CONUS....WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OVER THE WRN CONUS. INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LINGERED INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...WITH LITTLE ELSE OTHER
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MONTANA BUILDING IN BEHIND. OVERALL SKY COVER HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE N/NERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND
70 IN NRN AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NC KS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED FROM
THE WRN TROUGH...AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MANY LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL DATA WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF THE BETTER CHANCES...AND TO TRIM BACK SRN PORTIONS A BIT.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NAM/SREF/RAP/HRRR SHOWING
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO COME ACROSS PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASED LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. WILL KEEP
STRONG/SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...CANT RULE IT OUT WITH THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...MAY END UP BEING
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKING TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE THING WANE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT AND THE LLJ DIMINISHES. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE 12-15Z HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING TO AGAIN SEE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING WITH MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...EASTERLY WINDS...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE NORTH
TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
ALLBLEND DID PRESENT 20-30% POPS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT TO HELP PROMOTE
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH PROVIDING
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE...LIKELY ONLY MAXING OUT AT 20-25KTS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING WHEN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT...BUT THESES STORMS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH. STORMS IN COLORADO HAVE ERUPTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IF A PARTICULARLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS THROUGH. STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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