Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 201701
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1201 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Clds are decreasing a little faster than expected. So the fcst was
updated to better reflect this trend sooner.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Aloft: Low-amplitude WSW flow was over the CONUS with the highest
heights over the Ern USA. Svrl shortwave trofs were embedded in
the flow...two of which will affect the fcst area (FA) thru
tonight. The first has moved out CO/WY into Neb/SD overnight. The
second was a more potent trof that has moved onshore into the W.
The first trof will exit the FA this morning on its way into the
Upr Midwest. It will be followed by a shortwave ridge this
afternoon/eve. The Wrn trof will gradually press deeper into the
CONUS and will extend from ID/WA to CO/KS by 12Z/Fri.

Surface: The cool front that moved thru yesterday extended was
well S and E of the FA. High pres was over WY and has been
building in thru the overnight hrs. This high will weaken a bit
and drift E into the Nrn Plns today. It will then strengthen a bit
tonight as the ridge moves in aloft. In the meantime...a cool
front over the Wrn states will cont E and be located coincident
with the lee trof by 12Z/Fri. Weak low pres will be organizing
over SE CO.

Now thru sunrise: M/cldy with some sprinkles S of I-80.

Today: The cld fcst is complicated with multiple layers present.
Overall expect decreasing clds this morning. GOES fog product and
sfc obs show extensive stratus from SD into Ern Neb within cold
pool/low-lvl thermal trof. CAA is occurring as this cold pool
slides SE and believe the RAP/NAM that this will keep a little
more cloud cover over the NE 1/2 of the FA thru early afternoon.
Stratus should lift into SCT stratocu. The GFS is a little less
aggressive...keeping the cold pool a little further E.

This afternoon looks very nice with plenty of sun and light
winds.

High temps near normal (65-72F).

Tonight: Becoming cldy from W-E as cirroform clds move in and
followed by multi-layered clds gradually descending to 8-10K ft.
These clds will be generated by synoptic lift supplementing deep
upslope from to the Rockies.

We could see a little -RA or sprinkles move into areas W of Hwy
281 in the predawn hrs...but mdls tend to be too aggressive
bringing upslope-generated precip this far E.

Used consensus of model 2m temps for lows which does much better
with nighttime clds. Low temps svrl degs above normal (44-50F).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Temperatures will fluctuate near or just below normal through the
upcoming weekend...with a brief surge back above normal next
Monday...before dropping back down closer to climatological values
for mid April over the middle portion of next week. While there
will be multiple chances for precipitation through the period...
overall...widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated at
this time.

Focusing on the first part of the extended...expect an upper
level disturbance to track south out of the Rockies on Friday
...eventually developing into a more organized system across the
southeastern US over the upcoming weekend. While the focus of this
upper level wave will be to our south...do expect some showers to
develop across the local area Friday and Friday night...
especially across portions of north central Kansas which will be
closer to the forcing for the aforementioned wave. With the local
area continuing to be on the cool side of yesterdays front...
instability values do not justify the mention of thunderstorms,
and kept the forecast thunderstorms free not only for Friday, but
through the entire extended period.

Once tomorrows upper level wave moves into the southeastern US
over the upcoming weekend...expect a gradual warming trend as a
weak ridge tries to build in across the local area this weekend.
This will likely result in temperature peaking on Monday...before
the next upper level wave and associated cold front track across
the northern plains on Monday afternoon/evening. While this could
provide a brief period of light rainfall...expect the main impact
to be a drop in temperatures back to near or just below normal for
the middle portion of next week. In addition...this will begin a
period of more zonal flow across the plains for the middle to
latter portion of next week...ushering by multiple passing
disturbances justifying small chances for precip. Once again...
instability locally is very limited...and chose to keep the
forecast thunderstorm free through the period. Just beyond the
current scope of the forecast...a deeper trough of low pressure
could bring a better chance for precip/thunderstorms to the local
area for Friday/Saturday...but models not in great agreement with
the track of this system...so confidence is low.

Otherwise...the only other thought is that there might be a small
potential for some light frost formation early Sunday morning
across low lying and sheltered locations, but current forecast
temperatures would need to come down a couple of degrees from
current levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Aloft: Low-amplitude WSW flow was over the CONUS with the highest
heights over the Ern USA. Svrl shortwave trofs were embedded in
the flow...two of which will affect the fcst area (FA) thru
tonight. The first has moved out CO/WY into Neb/SD overnight. The
second was a more potent trof that has moved onshore into the W.
The first trof will exit the FA this morning on its way into the
Upr Midwest. It will be followed by a shortwave ridge this
afternoon/eve. The Wrn trof will gradually press deeper into the
CONUS and will extend from ID/WA to CO/KS by 12Z/Fri.

Surface: The cool front that moved thru yesterday extended was
well S and E of the FA. High pres was over WY and has been
building in thru the overnight hrs. This high will weaken a bit
and drift E into the Nrn Plns today. It will then strengthen a bit
tonight as the ridge moves in aloft. In the meantime...a cool
front over the Wrn states will cont E and be located coincident
with the lee trof by 12Z/Fri. Weak low pres will be organizing
over SE CO.

Now thru sunrise: M/cldy with some sprinkles S of I-80.

Today: The cld fcst is complicated with multiple layers present.
Overall expect decreasing clds this morning. GOES fog product and
sfc obs show extensive stratus from SD into Ern Neb within cold
pool/low-lvl thermal trof. CAA is occurring as this cold pool
slides SE and believe the RAP/NAM that this will keep a little
more cloud cover over the NE 1/2 of the FA thru early afternoon.
Stratus should lift into SCT stratocu. The GFS is a little less
aggressive...keeping the cold pool a little further E.

This afternoon looks very nice with plenty of sun and light
winds.

High temps near normal (65-72F).

Tonight: Becoming cldy from W-E as cirroform clds move in and
followed by multi-layered clds gradually descending to 8-10K ft.
These clds will be generated by synoptic lift supplementing deep
upslope from to the Rockies.

We could see a little -RA or sprinkles move into areas W of Hwy
281 in the predawn hrs...but mdls tend to be too aggressive
bringing upslope-generated precip this far E.

Used consensus of model 2m temps for lows which does much better
with nighttime clds. Low temps svrl degs above normal (44-50F).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Temperatures will fluctuate near or just below normal through the
upcoming weekend...with a brief surge back above normal next
Monday...before dropping back down closer to climatological values
for mid April over the middle portion of next week. While there
will be multiple chances for precipitation through the period...
overall...widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated at
this time.

Focusing on the first part of the extended...expect an upper
level disturbance to track south out of the Rockies on Friday
...eventually developing into a more organized system across the
southeastern US over the upcoming weekend. While the focus of this
upper level wave will be to our south...do expect some showers to
develop across the local area Friday and Friday night...
especially across portions of north central Kansas which will be
closer to the forcing for the aforementioned wave. With the local
area continuing to be on the cool side of yesterdays front...
instability values do not justify the mention of thunderstorms,
and kept the forecast thunderstorms free not only for Friday, but
through the entire extended period.

Once tomorrows upper level wave moves into the southeastern US
over the upcoming weekend...expect a gradual warming trend as a
weak ridge tries to build in across the local area this weekend.
This will likely result in temperature peaking on Monday...before
the next upper level wave and associated cold front track across
the northern plains on Monday afternoon/evening. While this could
provide a brief period of light rainfall...expect the main impact
to be a drop in temperatures back to near or just below normal for
the middle portion of next week. In addition...this will begin a
period of more zonal flow across the plains for the middle to
latter portion of next week...ushering by multiple passing
disturbances justifying small chances for precip. Once again...
instability locally is very limited...and chose to keep the
forecast thunderstorm free through the period. Just beyond the
current scope of the forecast...a deeper trough of low pressure
could bring a better chance for precip/thunderstorms to the local
area for Friday/Saturday...but models not in great agreement with
the track of this system...so confidence is low.

Otherwise...the only other thought is that there might be a small
potential for some light frost formation early Sunday morning
across low lying and sheltered locations, but current forecast
temperatures would need to come down a couple of degrees from
current levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

VFR condiitons are forecast through the TAF period. In deep mixing
today, northwest winds will be steady/gusty with wind gusts
between 20 and 25kts. Wind speeds will subside this evening and
winds will become light and variable under the influence of a
surface ridge. Cloud cover will increase during the latter taf
hours ahead of an upper trough moving into the Rockies.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Fay


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