Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 122336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Current GOES-16 water vapor imagery along with 12Z upper air
analysis shows mid level short wave from the Great Lakes into the
midwest progressing eastward while low amplitude ridge builds into
the Rockies. Corresponding 500 mb height falls of 30-40 meters noted
with the trough, with height rises of 60 meters associated with the
ridge. At 18Z, surface features included a 1032 mb high situated
from southeast SDak to southwest Neb. Winds are light and variable
over the CWA as we sit under high pressure. Clouds moved south of
most the the CWA a little earlier than expected and temps have
climbed a bit higher than forecast due to plenty of sunshine.

Tonight should be precip free and fairly quiet except for the chance
of some fog development a few hours prior to sunrise. Not a
certainty as various model solutions split on this. Part of it
depends on degree of radiational cooling overnight as this could be
hampered by thicker higher clouds moving in from the west after
midnight. The quiet weather should continue on Monday. Winds will
become southerly as the surface high pushes to the east and we
remain dry.  Highs are expected to be close to normal for this time
of year with low to mid 50s north to south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Pattern looks to be fairly progressive during the rest of the
upcoming workweek and into next weekend with a couple of mid level
waves pushing across from west to east. The first wave is slated to
move through the central Plains Tue night. Some low level moisture
available but nothing to speak of in the mid levels. Forcing also
not impressive. Superblend leaves our CWA dry which seams
reasonable. The second mid level wave and associated cold front is
expected to push across the CWA during the day on Friday, according
to the latest operational run of the GFS, or late Fri night
according to the 12Z EC run. In either case, mid level moisture
might be lacking again, but enough forcing expected to squeeze out
some rain. If the GFS timing pans out, P-Type would be all rain. If
the EC ends up closer to reality, we might have a rain/snow mix.
Plenty of time to sort this out as the week rolls along. The bigger
issue to watch for on Friday are strong north winds behind the front.

As far as temps are concerned, Tuesday should be the warmest ahead
of the first wave, and then highs should be close to average for the
remainder of the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 527 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Main forecast challenge for tonight will be fog vs stratus over
the TAF sites. Models hinting at both so will bring in some IFR
ceilings just before sunrise and will drop the visibilities down
also. Have higher confidence with the stratus moving in from the
south as an area of stratus is located over central KS and the
winds are forecast to become southerly after midnight. Cirrus
moving in from the Rockies could hinder radiational cooling which
would help keep fog from forming.




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