000
FXUS63 KGID 132330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING 700MB SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD...USHERING IN A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS NOT REAL HIGH...AND
LIMITED POPS TO ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE 3KM
WRF SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER TAKING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LATEST HRR AND NAM KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND THIS
WARMER AIRMASS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...WITH
MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FOR FRIDAY...ANY MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND
OUT OF THE LOCAL ARE BY MID MORNING...AND FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE CHANCE
FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH MIXING INCREASING
BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO NEAR
20 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THESE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...HELD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STREAMING NORTHWARD AND
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED NEAR CRITICAL WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF
AND FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION NEAR THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS...AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST MODELED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NEAR 4000 JOULES OF CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...COULD
SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

ALOFT: ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG-
WAVES FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. THE MEAN PATTERN WILL BE A CNTRL
USA RIDGE AND TROFS ON BOTH COASTS. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE PAC NW WILL TOP THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN EMERGE INTO
ERN USA TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE ROCKIES AS IT REBUILDS MON. THE RIDGE WILL
ADVANCE BACK INTO THE PLAINS TUE-WED AS THE NEXT NE PAC LOW MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW. BY LATE WED...A NEW WRN TROF WILL BE ESTABLISHED
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS
ORBITING VORT MAXIMA AND JET STREAKS EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS.

SFC: A THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FRI NGT AND
BECOME STATIONARY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. A STRONGER COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN NGT. HIGH PRES SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS
MON-TUE. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AGAIN
WED-THU.

DRYNESS: THE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN HAVE PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE MONTH. WE ARE SEEING SIGNS THAT
OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE. WE COULD FINISH THE MONTH IN BETTER
SHAPE THAN IT STARTED IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT. THE 1ST IS THE
TEMPORARY RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...AS A POTENT
TROF KNOCKS IT DOWN AND HEADS INTO THE ERN USA. THE 2ND IS THE
APPARENT RETURN TO THE PATTERN WE SAW IN THE LAST HALF OF JUNE.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WRN USA
TROF/ERN USA RIDGE.

QPF: GFS/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EC ALL DROP SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMTS AT
VARIOUS TIMES BETWEEN FRI NGT AND SUN NGT. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT
ON WHEN AND WHERE...BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2" BY DAWN MON.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NGT: A HOT DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT
PRESSING IN FROM THE NW. THE CAP WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW
TSTMS. VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS INITIATE TSTMS BUT THE LOCATION
VARIES...SOME INDICATING INITIATION ONLY OVER SW NEB AND NW KS WHICH
EVENTUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE W...WHILE OTHERS INITIATE TSTMS OVER
S-CNTRL NEB AS WELL.

USING LOWER EC DWPTS OFFERS 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. ATOP THE
DEEPLY MIXED BL SHEAR WILL ONLY BE 15-20 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH
INVERTED V PROFILE SUGGESTS OUTFLOW-DOMINATED STORMS. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE INSTABILITY AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND
MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SAT-SUN: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS BUT TOO MANY DETAILS TO PINPOINT
TIME/LOCATION. HAVE NOTED THIS SETUP LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE MADDOX
"FRONTAL TYPE" FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SFC-850
MB...A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A WARM/MOIST TONGUE IMPINGING ON THE
BOUNDARY. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 80 KT ULJ SHOULD NOT BE
UNDERESTIMATED.

MON: STILL LOOKING PLEASANT AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

TUE: PROBABLY DRY...BUT SOME LATE DAY DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER NW KS AND WRN NEB.

WED: MONDAY/S COOL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT AND SHOULD
THREATEN MORE THUNDERY WX.

THU: NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED SVR
WX.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD
OVER S-CNTRL NEB...AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER N-CNTRL KS. IT/S LOOKING
LIKE PCPN WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THIS COULD BE VERY
LOCATION DEPENDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH...BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN