Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 191035
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
535 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BENEATH THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WIND...ALONG WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A NICE WARM UP TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WASHES OUT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST...TO THE MID 40S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSISTENCY WITH NOTEWORTHY ITEMS IN THE
LONG TERM...WHICH INCLUDE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK AND RAINFALL MID NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST...WHICH
WILL ULTIMATELY CREATE A BLOCKING PATTERN...RESULTING IN THE LOCAL
AREA EXPERIENCING RIDING DURING THIS TIME. THIS RIDGING WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...AND WE
WILL HAVE SOME ENERGY COME OFF THE ROCKIES. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
COME OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING AND PUSHING FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS ENERGY WILL BE OUR FOCUS
DURING THE LONG TERM. A LOT OF THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR
PERHAPS A CHANCE AT RESPECTABLE RAINFALL FOR MID OCTOBER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE STILL RANGING AROUND 1.25 TO 1.35
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER. AROUND THE 850 MB LAYER...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AROUND
35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE PLACED OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN PLACE AT THIS LAYER AS WELL TO HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MOIST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE VERY INDICATIVE OF
TROPICAL SOUNDINGS...WITH A DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ALL THIS BEING
SAID...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A HALF INCH OR MORE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE FORECAST
NOW...AND THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON HARVESTING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOW AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE AMPLIFYING THROUGH...WE WILL AGAIN BE UNDER
RIDING...WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE THE ONE EXCEPTION DUE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAINY CONDITIONS THE NIGHT BEFORE. THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE OUR CLOSEST DAY TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN
DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY


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