Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251137
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The forecast over the next 24 hours is much easier forecast than the
last couple days as far as confidence goes. Mostly dry after the
ongoing convection clears out later this morning. Skies should clear
out somewhat to partly cloudy, and temperatures will get into the
lower to mid 80s for above normal high temperatures. Thunderstorms
are possible again later this afternoon.

Thunderstorms ongoing across the heart of the forecast area will
continue to push east this morning with marginally severe potential,
and possibly some minor flooding in areas receiving heavy rainfall.
HRRR simulated reflectivity has been doing a decent job handling
thunderstorms and their forecast last night and this morning. By
9am, we should be precipitation free across the outlook area. Later
this afternoon, there will be another chance for thunderstorms to
redevelop across western portions of the forecast area around 4/5 pm
along a cold front sagging south from a surface low over South
Dakota. Depending on the orientation and timing of the front, the
thunderstorms could be delayed a little or possible only hit
northern parts of the forecast area. Nevertheless, with most
unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg (GFS being a little
higher) and the front around, I see at least a chance for
thunderstorms to develop later if the timing of the upper level low-
amplitude shortwave is right. This pattern is difficult to discern
these low-amplitude shortwaves the last several days embedded in
this southwesterly flow aloft. Environmental shear will have the
potential to support severe storms capable of producing hail and
damaging winds as the primary threat. These threats will quickly
diminish in the evening as storms move eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The upper level longwave mean trough in the western United States
will persist through the long term as a stationary or nearly
stationary boundary hangs around or near our area. Thursday
afternoon and night, especially as a low-level jet develops in the
evening. Abundant moisture will continue to be available, so this
means several days of potentially inclement and severe weather,
along with near normal to a bit above normal temperatures. Highs
will generally be in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions will likely prevail at the terminals through the
valid TAF period. There is the exception for thunderstorms later
this afternoon. Thunderstorm may develop along a cold front to the
west later this afternoon, and if these storms maintain and push
eastward across the forecast area, there could be a brief period
of MVFR (or in the worst case IFR) conditions within these
thunderstorms. Confidence lead to leaving these categories out of
the current TAF for the time being. Look for subsequent TAFs to
mention these chances for thunderstorms if them become more of a
likelihood to impact the terminals.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Guerrero
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Guerrero



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