Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221133
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z UPPER AIR OBS AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS RIDGING REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES...SET UP BETWEEN ONE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST REGION...AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IS
KEEPING QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE A
BIT OF CIRRUS SLIDING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS UP INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY GENERALLY
COOLED INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WILL SIDE EAST TODAY AS THAT WEST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND...AND BY THIS EVENING THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO MORE S/SERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING...AS THE AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...WITH SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE...AND STRONGER GUSTS...AND THE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS THE ERN HALF REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FURTHER INTO THE DAY.

MAIN CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS TO TREND BACK
DEWPOINTS...A MOVE SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE AND MOST MODELS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ AS THOSE WINDS TURN TO THE S/SE.
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPS
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
FORECAST RH VALUES FALLING INTO MAINLY THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED...WILL INSERT NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE HWO ACROSS SC NEB...AS CALLS TO
PARTNERS YESTERDAY DETERMINED THE 1+ INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES HAS RESULTED IN FUELS MORE
UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TEMPS/DPTS THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO
PUSH THINGS CLOSER TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH THE SFC
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY S/SE WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...BUT REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTED OUT AHEAD LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION.  THIS
DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIFT VIA A HEFTY S/SWRLY
LLJ...IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION...BUT
MODELS EVEN THIS CLOSE VARY SOME ON THE LOCATION. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE 00-06Z HOURS DRY...AND KEPT THE 06-12Z POPS
ON THE LOWER SIDE...AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE JET OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. SHOULD ACTIVITY END UP
DEVELOPING...COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE REGION...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION
ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS PUSHING A DRY LINE FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR...ALL MODELS BREAK OUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL PUSH AS EVENING
APPROACHES. THERE IS ALSO STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WAVE MOVING EAST
ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING OVERDONE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. JUST NOT SURE THAT MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED /ALA LAST WEEKEND/. EXPECTING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE HIGH BASED IN NATURE BEFORE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EAST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY GOOD SHEAR. SOME CONCERN THINGS COULD QUICKLY WEAKEN
WITH STABILIZING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY 10 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...WITH THE AGREEMENT IN STORM FORMATION AMONG ALL
MODELS... INCLUDING 4KM WRF...THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC IS ON
TARGET AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH OF THE SEASON. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.

EARLIER IN THE DAY...LINGER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST OF BY LATE MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO MAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...IT WILL WINDY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THINGS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS FOR A
TIME.

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ABOARD DOWN
SLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTED PLENTY OF SUN...GOOD
MIXING... AND HAVE LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH THIS FAVORABLE
DRIER PATTERN. CURRENT HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25%
RANGE SO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSE AS THE TIME NEARS.

MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE INFLUENCES BY LARGE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR. LOOK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED...AN UPPER LEVEL IS THE PRIMARY
CULPRIT...BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW BY
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AS IT SLIDES UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER HEIGHT
PATTERN. ONE THING ABOUT THIS PATTERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DECENT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OVER SEVERAL DAYS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...ITS HARD TO REALLY PIN DOWN THE EXACT
LOCATION GIVEN FORECASTING THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOST CHALLENGING DUE TO ITS CUT OFF NATURE. FOR
NOW...WIDESPREAD 30-50 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND FORECAST WITH SUBSTANTIAL REFINEMENT TO COME LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BELOW NORMAL ONCE
THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL PROBABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS MAY COME INTO PLAY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAM INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W/NW...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
LEAVE THE MENTION OUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADO



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