Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
414 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

The short term forecast will be updated soon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

There seems to be increasing potential for fog Monday morning.
The SREF shows around 50% chance for visibilities less than 1
mile, mainly north of I-80. As such, we went ahead and included
patchy fog along and north of I-80 until 9AM Monday.

After this fog clears out, attention shifts to a compact upper-
level wave moving into the area from the southwest. This will
serve to increase cloud cover during the afternoon. This wave is
expected to phase with a northern stream trough and push a front
through the area which will bring us a chance for thunderstorms
during the later afternoon, evening and overnight. There is a
marginal risk for some of these storms to be severe, but the NAM
only shows around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and pretty limited shear,
so I think the better chances will be to our east.

See the "Eclipse Day" section below for more specific details on
the weather impacts for eclipse day.

After storms clear the area Tuesday morning, we are looking at a
dry and cooler stretch that should last through Thursday. High
temperatures should only reach the upper 70s to mid 80s each day.

Slight chances for rain and storms return Friday, with better
chances arriving Saturday and Sunday as multiple upper-level
shortwaves move through the region.

.Eclipse Day...

Rain & Storms:
The threat for rain and storms during the eclipse is low.
Overnight storms are expected to exit the area well before the
eclipse. There is a slight chance for storms to redevelop during
the afternoon, but they are expected to hold off until at least
after totality and probably until after 4PM for most of the area.

Cloud cover will be the biggest issue for the eclipse. Fog and
low clouds will clear out by mid-morning, but models have
continued to increase the cloud cover across the area from around
midday onward. The GFS still keeps the best mid-level saturation
and clouds just south of the path of totality, but high clouds may
be abundant. In a lot of ways, the NAM is even more pessimistic
as it stalls the warm front very near I-80 and has more saturation
and cloud cover in the mid-levels.

There will still be opportunities for breaks in the clouds, so
the our forecast still calls for partly cloudy skies for most of
the area at 1PM. All hope isn`t lost, but, to be completely
honest, I`m becoming concerned about the prospects of seeing a
cloud-free eclipse in central Nebraska.

Temperatures & Winds:
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s at eclipse time
and winds will be southwesterly at 10 to 20 MPH.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

LLWS will be the biggest concern as the low-level jet will
continue to be rather strong over the next few hours as surface
winds decrease. Another round of LLWS will be possible next




SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Heinlein is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.