Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 280943
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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