Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 100000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

The dry and abnormally warm December weather pattern continues.
High temperatures will be outstanding and around 20 degrees above
normal with highs around 60, which is still a few degrees short of
the record for December 10th. The very warm weather will make for
low RH values and dangerous fire weather conditions.

The big concern given the dry and warm conditions will be the near
critical fire danger we expect tomorrow. There is a bit of a
temperature inversion that we never really shake during the day,
which will inhibit optimal mixing. Therefore, believe that the
winds could be gusty to around 20 mph or maybe a bit above that,
but it may be a bit difficult to get gusts more frequently to
around 25 mph, which is our red flag wind threshold and thus will
hold off on headlines for now. However, the RH values will likely
reach the critical thresholds at less than 20 percent RH, but
again the winds don`t seem to be there.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Overview...The dry and abnormally warm December weather pattern
will likely continue right through the end of the seven day
forecast period and probably even into the 7 to 10 day period.
Normal high temperatures are now in the upper 30s with normal lows
around 20. We expect temperatures to be above normal every day
through at least the next 7 days especially the high temperatures,
which could be a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal on several
days. We will see glancing shots of cooler air with quick
moderation as most of the really cold air slides east of our area.
Even these glancing shots of cool air will only take us down into
the mid 40s to around 50, (Monday into Tuesday, Thursday,
and Saturday) which is still above normal.

The primary forecast concern centers around near critical to
critical fire danger on Monday. There will be better mixing with
steeper lapse rates Monday afternoon as we mix to around 825 mb.
Therefore, went with some of the lower guidance values when it
came to dewpoints and the higher values when looking at winds.
Consequently, expect near critical to even critical fire danger
for areas generally south of a line from Elwood to Mankato. Could
see the need for a possible fire weather headline for this period
if fire conditions continue to look this dangerous with future
model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 559 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

The biggest issue will be low-level wind shear starting late this
evening and into a big part of Sunday morning. I did lower the
level for LLWS compared to the previous forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Heinlein



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