Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 010924
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOT LOOKING OVERLY WET BUT
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY DRY EITHER. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL STORM DEVELOPED DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA IN WAA AIDED BY A LLVL JET.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NAM 305K
ISENTROPIC FIELD AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS REPRESENTATION OF
THE WAA AND LOW PCPN CHCS TODAY/TONIGHT.

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BUT
DEAMPLIFY THRU TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION. THE AIRMASS MODERATES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY
COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UP WITH HIGHS
EDGING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BUT
READINGS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER.

PRECIPITATIONWISE...THE HIT OR MISS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WORK EAST DURING THE MORNING WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACK SOUTHEAST
IN THE MEAN FLOW. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SHLD PRIMARILY BE DRY...WITH CHCS RETURNING AFTER DARK WITH
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST TO START WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT ONCE THE LLVL JET RAMPS UP. THE MAIN INSTABILITY
AXIS AND BETTER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM AND WILL MENTION IN
THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MAJOR
CONCERN. BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...COULD HAVE A FEW
LINGERING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FAIRLY QUIET. EXPECTING A SURFACE LOW TO BE
OVER WESTERN SDAK TUESDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PRIMARY
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH WEAK WAVES
EJECTING AHEAD OF THE LOW. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH EAST AS
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVE TOWARDS US.
SEVERAL SEVERE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SEVERE TO OUR WEST BUT WE WONT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS AS
FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE CONCERNED TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN OUR
WESTERN CWA.

WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
WED...WILL NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS ROLLING EAST INTO OUR AREA WITH SEVERE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES. THE PACIFIC NW LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH
LEAVING US IN A WEAK RIDGE. HOWEVER SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE
OVER/THROUGH THE RIDGE CONTINUING OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY END UP WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALL IN ALL...A
MESSY WEEK COMING UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. CONVECTION SO FAR HAS
REMAINED WELL SOUTH IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND MODELS ARE HIT AND
MISS ON WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AS THE LLVL JET
STRENGHTENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY



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