Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 170612
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RECENTLY PUBLISHED A FEW MINOR UPDATES THROUGH THESE NEXT 6 HOURS
THROUGH 12Z/6AM...MAINLY ADDRESSING:

1) AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS AGO...THE WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT IS AT LEAST GENERATING SOME RADAR ECHOES ALOFT...AND
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RETURNS ARE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND...FELT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY VALLEY/GREELEY/NANCE COUNTIES.

2) WITH A MIX OF BOTH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FAIRLY DECENT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NUDGED UP LOW
TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA FORECAST TO
DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 16-21 RANGE.

3) AT LEAST FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
MENTION INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT AFTER A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
RAP13/HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
CLOUDS...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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