000
FXUS63 KGID 060956
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...

ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.

STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.

THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.

TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.

WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.

DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 5 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB