Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 202323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Cooler weather has settled onto the plains today under the
influence of an upper trough axis while surface high pressure
reinforced the cooler airmass across our region. Cloud cover has
also held temps down this afternoon despite hit or miss sun in the
breaks of the clouds, holding temps in the 50s.

The upper trough axis will continue to exit to the east while the
surface high pressure ridge axis shifts southeast towards Missouri
tonight. Low temps tonight will be cold with readings in the 30s.
Look for cloud cover to diminish during the evening before high
level clouds move in toward morning.

Heights aloft continue to rise on Friday as upper ridging builds
east of the Rockies and onto the Plains. The airmass moderates and
temps will be noticeably warmer in the 60s to near 70 degrees aided
by good mixing of southerly winds. Model forecast soundings indicate
mixing just above H85 with winds at the top of the layer around
28kts so looking for wind speeds around 20 mph with gusts around 30
mph. The surface trough axis across western Nebraska will shift
toward our western zones in the afternoon and wind speeds will
decrease along this trough by evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The upper ridge settles across the Plains over the weekend and into
the first part of next week. Temps over the weekend are shaping up
to reach the 70s for highs both days, with Saturday the warmest
of the two days ahead of an approaching surface trough/weak cold
frontal boundary. As mentioned by the previous shift, will need to
closely monitor fire weather conditions for our western zones
where high temps in the mid/upper 70s combined with low relative
humidity values in the low 20th percentile will lead to near
critical fire weather conditions given the dry fuels. Wind speeds
will be dependent upon the surface trough timing however model
forecast soundings do suggest some wind gusts around 25 mph or so
in the afternoon and will need to closely monitor this especially
if dewpoints and relative humidity values drop any further.

The surface boundary crosses our region Saturday night or early
Sunday bringing a wind shift to the north and slightly cooler air in
on Sunday with sfc high pressure building in behind the boundary.
The ridge axis breaks down early next week as a shortwave trough
translates onto the Plains. Chances for precipitation return as
early as Monday night but favor the Tuesday/Tuesday night time
frame for the most part. Instability has increased on the latest
model runs and have kept the potential for thunderstorms. The
forecast dries out Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Expect continued decreasing sky cover as an upper level wave
departs. Wind will switch from light and variable to south
overnight and increase in speed Friday due to increased mixing.




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