Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 280942
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
342 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THUS ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW TODAY. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT
HOWEVER...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS...WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY IN TO THIS EVENING.
THAT SAID...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRIMARY AXIS
OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...MORE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
OMEGA...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION RATES
ACROSS MOST ALL OF OUR CWA. STILL...POPS REMAIN INTACT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS
OF OMEGA WILL MAKE A SWIFT PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...THUS PROVIDING A DRY PERIOD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOW NO
REAL INDICATIONS THAT THIS PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA WILL MAKE A PUSH
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS WAS BEING INDICATED 24 HOURS
AGO...IT DOES NOW APPEAR THAT THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN ~130KT
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL NEAR OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...THUS PROMOTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD AND CONTINUED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA 06-18Z SUNDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ADDITION...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST SNOW-WATER RATIOS OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH PAST
FEW DAYS.

TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.01-0.03" ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80...AND 0.03-0.05" ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS SAME BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THEN PROVIDES ~0.01-0.04" OF ADDITIONAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION RATES
BEING REALIZED ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. TAKING THESE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW-WATER
RATIOS...PROVIDES ~0.5" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO AN
INCH. BETWEEN A COUPLE TENTHS AND ~1 INCH THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS PROVIDING TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF NEAR AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...WITH CLOSER TO 1.5" ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

THIS FORECAST PRESENTS YET ANOTHER DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS FROM
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...A TREND WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THROUGH THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS HIGHLY LIKELY PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHEAST...WILL OBSERVE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT STORM AND THE THREAT FOR "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER APPEARS
VERY LOW. ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE CONSIDERS THE FACT THAT THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
TODAY...~10KTS...AND SHOULD ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THUS ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN
BLOWING SNOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...FINDING IT EXTREMELY HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS. GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
TERMINATE THE ADVISORY...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 15Z.

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THIS SNOWFALL
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF KEAR AND KGRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF
PERIOD FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10-12KTS...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT


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