Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
159 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS MOST PLACES. GRI IS PRETTY
MUCH GUARANTEED TO HIT 90F. THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR
THIS MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT 90 WAS AUG 20TH.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

I DID END UP RAISING HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGS ALONG THE NEB HWY
283 CORRIDOR JUST SO THE FCST EXPLICITLY STATES HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. 91 IS NOW FCST AT EAR. BASED ON THIS...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
NUDGED LOWER DUE TO DEEPER MIXING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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