Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
000
FXUS63 KGID 151731
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High confidence that dry conditions and near to above normal
temperatures will prevail this weekend and through at least
early next week (normal high temps in the low-mid 50s).
- With the mild and dry weather, the main concern will be return
of at least near-critical fire weather each afternoon from
this weekend through Wednesday.
- The overall worst fire weather looks to be Sunday when there`s
a 85-95% chance for wind gusts >25 MPH and minimum relative
humidity dips to near 20%. A Red Flag Warning may be needed.
- The next chance for moisture, and perhaps more sustained cool
temperatures, doesn`t arrive until the later half of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Quiet weather is in place across most of Neb and Kan early this
morning as the primary frontal zone and upper trough responsible
for the recent active weather has shifted well E and S of the
area, stretching from the S Plains to the Ohio Valley. Main
story next few days will be up and down temperatures and breezy
conditions due to dry passages of various fronts. Even so, it
still looks like temperatures will average near to above normal
(which normal highs are steadily rising through the low to mid
50s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s). The strongest of the
fronts will back into the region on Sunday in response to
digging/deepening upper trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest.
In fact, latest EC carves out a -2.5 std dev trough at 500mb on
by 12Z Mon over the Ohio River Valley. This trough, coupled
with +2.5 std dev 500 heights over British Columbia will result
in highly amplified flow through the Plains through the weekend.
As mentioned, Sunday looks to be coolest (highs upper 40s to
upper 50s north to south) and windiest, as gusts over 25 MPH are
almost a certainty (85-95% chance), and NBM 75th percentile
gusts are 30 to 40 MPH area-wide. Despite the cooler temps,
fire weather will still be a concern as very dry air will also
be present given dew points in the low to mid teens, perhaps
even single digits given NBM tends to have a bit of a high bias
on obvious very dry patterns beyond ~48 hours. Thus, with
forecast minimum humidity already in the low to mid 20s, and a
trend towards lower values very possible, fire weather headlines
for a large portion of the forecast area may very well be
needed on Sunday. Can`t rule out at least localized critical
fire weather on other days, as well, in particular N of I-80 on
Saturday afternoon and various parts of the area on Monday
afternoon. After that, fire weather looks to become increasingly
marginal, despite warmer temperatures, due to increasing low
level moisture on S/SE winds that look to gust mostly in the
20-25 MPH range.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s areawide Mon AM will give
way to a warming trend through midweek as highs climb into the
mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday through Wednesday. Thereafter,
latest ensemble guidance trends towards a cooler and more active
pattern for the second half of next week and into the following
weekend, with one or two systems to watch for potential impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Northerly
winds will become westerly by 21z today. Winds will then become
southwesterly by 03z. Winds will once again become westerly by
12z then northwest by 15z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Schuldt