000
FXUS63 KGID 191720
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite and observations show clear skies for most locations. The
exception is KODX which has some localized fog and low clouds that
do not show up on satellite.

There are a few things going on for this period. The first is the
localized fog in the Ord area. Ord has had a low visibility for a
while now and a couple of other locations are finally reporting some
light fog. At this time it appears that the fog in Ord is fairly
localized to the area. Called about the fog in Ord and were told
that it is localized and most locations around town were around a
half mile or better.

There is a surface low developing on the high plains to the west of
the forecast area. This will allow for the pressure gradient to
tighten and winds from the south will increase during the day. This
afternoon will be breezy. The wind will bring along a few concerns.
Temperatures will warm quite a bit this afternoon and will reach
around 90 to the mid 90s. This is over 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. The combination of gusty winds and warm
temperatures will allow for low relative humidity and some fire
weather concerns for a portion of the area. See the fire weather
discussion for more details.

Tonight, the surface low and cold front will move through the
forecast area. The upper level wave is further to the north and
expect dry conditions through the night as the winds turn to the
north or northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The long term starts off dry through Friday morning. On Wednesday, a
surface high moves through the area and temperatures will be back
near normal for this time of year. By Wednesday night, the surface
high moves to the east and winds turn back to the south. A
developing surface low on the high plains will bring more south
winds to the area again on Thursday. Temperatures warm back up to
more than 10 degrees warmer than normal again. This surface low and
front continues to develop Thursday night into Friday. At the same
time, there is an upper level trough developing in the Rockies.

During the day Friday, the first upper level wave approaches from
the trough in the Rockies. There could be a few thunderstorms moving
into the northwest part of the forecast area Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain around 10 degrees above normal for Friday
as well.

For the period Friday night through Sunday expect there to be
thunderstorms spreading across the forecast area. The front slowly
moves through the forecast area during this time. The models are
fairly similar with the front taking around 48 hours to move through
the forecast area. During this time, the trough in the Rockies
gradually moves to the east and sends a few waves into the area.
Thunderstorms should spread slowly across the area on Saturday and
continue into Sunday.

Even Sunday night into Monday, the area will be affected by the
upper level trough to the west. There continues to be waves of
energy pushed into the area and with the front to the east of the
area the models keep some precipitation across the area. Have kept
thunder in across the area, but will have to see if there may be
more isolated thunder from late Saturday night into Sunday morning
and again late Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions are forecast for both KGRI and KEAR this period,
although there is some weather to talk about. The main weather
is the passage of a cold front about 05-06z tonight. Model timing
has been solid in that time frame and along with this a
shifting and briefly gusty north wind behind the front. Prior to
the front, strong southerly flow will continue this afternoon
but as winds drop off for a time this evening as the front
approaches, we have a strong H850 jet from about 02Z to 05Z. This
will result in 2 to 3 hours of non-convective low level wind shear
just prior to the frontal passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s and drier
air will move in from the west during the afternoon hours. This
will lower relative humidity levels to less than 25 percent to the
west of a line from Lexington, Nebraska, to Osborne, Kansas. Have
upgraded the fire weather watch for Furnas county Nebraska and
Phillips and Rooks counties in Kansas to a red flag warning. This
area will have relative humidity levels near 20 percent this
afternoon. In addition to the dry conditions, the area is expected
to have gusty south winds. This will combine to create fire
weather concerns this afternoon.

Another surface low develops on the high plains on Thursday. The
pressure gradient tightens and the winds are expected to be gusty
again. Temperatures will be warm and relative humidity levels are
expected to be low. Will have to watch this period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ082.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
FIRE WEATHER...JCB