Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRES WAS CRESTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT IS A BEAUTIFUL
NIGHT AND WILL BE PERFECT FOR VIEWING THE FULL ECLIPSE OF THE
MOON.

AS FAR AS THIS ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE...OUR FCST HOURLY
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COLD COMPARED TO REALITY...
ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. SO CURRENT TEMPS WERE MERGED WITH THE LATEST
HI-RES RAP/HRRR. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY AND
DEWPOINTS.

HAVE REEVALUATED FOG POTENTIAL. BIE VSBY WAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT THERE WAS A RAIN SHWR THAT LOCALLY INCREASED THE
DEWPOINT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW /ONLY
2-3F/ AT JYR AND HJH...BUT VSBYS ARE STILL 10+ MILES. MUCH DRIER
AIR WAS NOT FAR AWAY. THE DEWPOINT AT ORD DROPPED TO 9F THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATING. FOR NOW...CONTINUED NO
MENTION OF FOG. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AFTER A MESSY END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SC NEB
THANKS TO A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE BIGGER AREA OF CLOUD
COVER PUSHED EAST...HAD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AS EXPECTED WITH
THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...DIDNT TAKE LONG FOR A NEW BATCH OF CU TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME RA/SN SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE CWA...AND
WHILE NO ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN A TRACE HERE OR THERE ARE
EXPECTED...SOME AREA OBS HAVE SHOWN THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 MILES. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED W/NWRLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH THE AREA SITTING BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ERN CO/NM...AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. TEMPS AS OF
3 PM SHOWING THE ENTIRE CWA /MINUS EAR WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT
OPERATIONAL/ RIGHT NEAR 40 INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND A FEW
MAY EVEN LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE ISO
MENTION GOING THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WONT SEE MUCH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT W/NW TO W AND BECOMING
LIGHT IN SPEED...AND EVENTUALLY SWRLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. DID
TREND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A BIT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES...WITH UPPER TEENS/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST. CONSIDERED
INSERTING A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW
MELT...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NEVER
BECOME COMPLETELY CALM...AND THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...SO KEPT OUT...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CREW TO MONITOR.

INTO TOMORROW...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DOES THE
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TODAYS TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SWRLY WINDS...SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S IN AREAS WITH WHATEVER SNOWPACK
IS LINGERING...TO MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBO OF TEMPS/DPTS HAS RESULTED IN RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA. DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WX WATCH ACROSS OUR NC KS
COUNTIES...THE AREA WHICH SAW LITTLE PRECIP YESTERDAY AND STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS IS THE TRACK OF A STORM
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS SOUTH FM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY DURING THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION/GREAT LAKES AREA. THE FRONT
STALLS FM NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO EAST CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN
MO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLE
SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -7C
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY AND IN THE ZERO TO -2C RANGE
IN THE SE. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR PCPN AS
A MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS IN THE SW CONUS AND CLOSES OFF NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONES ON
THURSDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE H7 WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF PCPN. MOST MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AND MAIN PCPN AREA WITH NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. THE 12 GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND H7 LOW TRACK THAN THE GEM/NAM
WITH CHCS FOR PCPN EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. THE 12Z ECMWF FILLS
THE H7 LOW QUICKER THAN OTHER MODELS AS IT LIFTS NE. ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFER POPS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS LOWERING AS THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING SOUTH BUT PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS STILL STAND DECENT CHCS
FOR PCPN ATTM. PCPN TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING/DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR. AIRMASS DOES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY COOL ENOUGH FOR
TRANSITION FM RAIN TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...AND
HAVE WENT WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER WEATHER FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IN THE TRANSITION DAY.  THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...THEN
NEXT FOCUS IS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND A NORTHERN SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM/SYSTEMS CROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS THERE IS SOME CHC FOR PCPN AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MODELS DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INIT WITH THE BETTER TIME FRAME
CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING PCPN SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS INDICATE A MAINLY DRY
EASTER SUNDAY WITH 60S FOR HIGHS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ON THE UPSWING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAF FOR GRI THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
PROBABLY CALM FOR A COUPLE HRS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-HIGH CLOUDS INVADE AND GRADUALLY
DESCEND TO 15K FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME S AROUND
DAWN AT 10 KTS OR LESS...THEN INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 30 KTS AFTER
18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE DAYTIME HRS. VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY S WINDS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 04Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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