Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 131758
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1158 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow in place
across the region early this morning, with low pressure spinning
over the AZ/Mexico border and shortwave energy working its way
into our area. At the surface, high pressure is centered over
the northern MO/KS border area, with south-southwesterly return
flow across the CWA. Speeds are light, with some eastern and
southern locations still reporting calm winds. Plenty of cloud
cover streaming from that upper low to the southwest, with partly
to mostly cloudy skies for most locations. 3 am obs range from the
mid 20 to mid 30s.

The main concern for today lies with precipitation chances,
especially across our NC KS counties. Things are dry across the
CWA now, but radar showing precipitation slowly working its way
north, driven by an upper level shortwave disturbance out ahead of
the main upper low. Models haven`t changed a whole lot over the
past 24 hours with this, showing those chances sliding north into
our southern CWA, but not so much into SC NE (maybe clipping the
far southern row of counties), as another disturbance will start
moving in from the northwest today, helping it push more off to
the east than the north. Between the timing of the precip getting
here (near/after 12Z) and that upstream temps have risen to/above
freezing as the precip moves in, thinking the primary precip type
will be liquid. Kept PoPs in the 20-40% range, with some models
showing overall coverage waning as it moves into the area. Will
see how things trend in the next few hours. At this point thinking
any accumulation would be light, and precip should come to an end
by this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected across the
remainder of the CWA. With the thicker cloud cover/precip across
the south and thinner clouds to the north, temperatures today are
a little tricky. Have mid/upper 40s going across the south, with
lower/mid 50s further north...some models suggest it could be few
degrees cooler in the south/warmer north than currently in the
grids.

This evening/tonight, the southwesterly winds during the day today
will switch to the west then northwest, as a surface frontal
boundary makes its way through the region. It`s not a strong push,
so not expecting notably higher speeds, but they should stay
around 10 MPH through the night. Cloud cover diminishes from north
to south, with mostly clear skies expected by 12Z Monday.
Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A generally nice work week is shaping up across the local area as
the upper level low across the southwest is expected to scoot
across the southern plains while a ridge of high pressure
amplifies aloft locally. Expect the peak of this ridge to be
centered across the local area Thursday afternoon/evening...which
will likely end up being the warmest day of the period.
Thereafter...the subsequent west coast system is expected to
transition from southern California and lift into the central
Rockies over the upcoming weekend... potentially providing enough
moisture and forcing for some precipitation late in the weekend or
early next week. Even so...with the southerly track of this system
and warm air in place...it looks like precipitation will largely
come in the form of rain...with a thunderstorm or two not
completely out of the question - albeit it is not currently in the
forecast.

Starting off Tuesday...expect the coolest day of the period behind
a weak cold front that moves across the local area during the pre-
dawn hours. While not exceptionally cold by any means...as
climatology dictates highs only near 40 this time of year...expect
an afternoon with temperatures generally in the lower 50s along
with a breezy northerly wind behind the cold front - likely
making for a somewhat blustery afternoon.

Thereafter...the surface pressure gradient under the amplifying
upper level ridge relaxes...and lighter winds along with warming
temperatures should make for an excellent middle/later portion of
the work week. In generally...expect a warm-up of 5 to 10
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday...with temperatures peaking in
at least the mid 60s both Thursday and Friday (which is actually
fairly conservative given the developing pattern). Slightly cooler
air will then advect in from the north over the upcoming
weekend...but temperatures will still remain very mild for mid-
February...likely topping out in the mid to upper 50s both
Saturday and Sunday. Of interest is the building instability ahead
of the next west coast system late in the weekend. Given we are
still talking day 6...I opted not to include thunderstorms in the
forecast late Sunday into next Monday...but given model
instability values upwards of 1000J/KG...will need to monitor
trends as they may eventually need to be added to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The biggest concern will be wind speeds for the first few hours of
the forecast ahead of an approaching surface trough from the
northwest. We have some decent mixing just ahead of the trough,
but as the trough approaches, wind speeds should come down by late
afternoon. As the trough moves through, wind direction will change
to the northwest, and increase with some gusts again toward late
morning Tuesday as mixing increases later in the day, behind the
surface trough. VFR conditions are expected and any precipitation
today should remain well south near the upper low traversing east
across the southern Plains.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Heinlein



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