Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 272348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW...SO KEPT A VCTS IN AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN THE
LOWEST 1500 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND SUNSET...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI


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