Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 271731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BEDA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.