Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MARKED BY A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW PASSING CLOUDS. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS VERY MILD...AND ACTUAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT WHAT WE SAW ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. SO OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...A
VERY PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE DAY ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE REGION.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FORECAST LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT A SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...PREVIOUS TEMPS WERE ON
TARGET...BUT NUDGED THEM DOWN JUST A BIT IN ORDER TO REFLECT NEAR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEWEST RUN OF MODELS
LOOKING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY...WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS RIDGING
REACHES NORTH INTO WRN CANADA...AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECTING THERE TO BE A FAIRLY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...SITTING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST...WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH LITTLE CHANGE...THOUGH A
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE AREA...AND LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW /AND IS BASICALLY ON ITS OWN WITH THIS/ A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MO
RIVER AREA AND MOVING PRECIP THROUGH THE ERN CWA. THERE IS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
AT THIS POINT...UNTIL OTHER MODELS START TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. AGREEMENT IS BETTER WITH KEEPING
THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY.

AS WE GET INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ARISES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE PAC NW/WRN CANADA
REGIONS...THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WRN CONUS DEAMPLIFIES A
BIT...WITH THE MAIN AXIS SLIDING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TRANSITIONS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM NRN TO MORE
NWRLY...WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES SLIDING INTO THE AREA AND
BRINGING ALONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HARD TO GO MORE THAN 20-30 POPS
AT THIS POINT...AS MODELS VARY FROM TO RUN TO RUN WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE DISTURBANCES. LOT OF THINGS TO IRON OUT IN
THE COMING DAYS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THOSE WITH 4TH OF JULY PLANS /THE VERY END OF
THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAYED UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



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