Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 202359
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Made some changes to POPs as the TAFs were put together. Multiple
mdls suggest sct shwrs/tstms will develop this eve over the SE 1/3
of the CWA...including the HRRR. There is a shortwave trof
approaching from the SW. So the fcst now reflects this better.
Also decreased coverage and magnitude of POPs until the front
moves thru tomorrow AM. This front will move thru dry at most
locations.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong gusty south winds is the main forecast concern through the
evening and overnight hours. As lee troughing deepens, the
pressure gradient is tightening. This gradient is allowing strong
winds to mix down to the surface with sustained speeds between 25
and 35 mph and gusts to 45 mph. Expect these strong winds to
persist through the late afternoon. While there may be a slight
decrease in the intensity of the winds as the sun sets and limits
some of the mixing...the strong pressure gradient continues and
expect the gusty winds to persist through much of the overnight
hours.

The cold front will begin to make its eastward move during the
overnight hours as the upper level trough approaches from the
west. This frontal passage is expected across central
Nebraska/Kansas during the morning hours. Currently expecting it
through Ord, NE around 7am, The Tri-cities around 9am and around
Hebron, NE/Beloit, KS around lunch time.

Temperatures tonight will stay relatively warm with the strong
gusty winds. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Then with that
starting point, highs will stay steady as the front passes or
increase slightly ahead of the front before decreasing late
tomorrow. Highs will be in the 60s and low 70s.

There are some low precipitation chances after midnight tonight
for areas along and east of Highway 81. Do not expect this to
amount to much and do not expect very wide coverage. Tomorrow,
think the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during
the late morning and afternoon ahead of the front. With a quick
passage of the front expected, think the best chances for more
widespread and severe thunderstorms to be south and east of the
area. There could be some showers as the front passes, but again,
this won`t amount to much.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The remainder of the forecast is active with numerous strong upper
waves moving across the area, but with little in the way of
moisture to work with, the forecast is dry until Thursday.

A quick hitting disturbance will dive south and bring another
cold front through the region late Sunday/early Monday. Ahead of
this front, Sunday will be a pleasant day with highs around 70
degrees. This is still about 5-10 degrees above normal for late
October. But this next disturbance arriving early Monday will
bring in cooler air and drop temps for Monday and especially
Tuesday as surface high pressure moves overhead. That being
said...the cool temps on Tuesday are close to normal for late
October.

A strong disturbance will dive southeast for Thursday. Ahead of
this wave, lee troughing will develop and southerly winds will
return for Wednesday. This will cause temps to rebound slightly
with highs again near the 70 mark. Thursday will have the best
chances for precipitation with the potent upper disturbance
approaching. However, there are some discrepancies among the
guidance, and with little in the way of return flow...confidence
in much rain is low. Temperatures will drop behind this front as
it ushers in more cool air. Lows Thursday night could be around to
below freezing. Cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Significant Wx: LLWS tonight with slight chance of brief TSRA.
WSHFT tomorrow with cold frontal passage.

Tonight: VFR with FEW-SCT clds at multiple lvls. A few TSRAs could
form this eve just SE of GRI. A bank of MVFR or IFR CIGs is fcst
to form just E of GRI. Included SCT020 to indicate it will be
nearby and there is some potential GRI could become BKN020. S
winds generally 20G30 kts with LLWS. Strong cross winds at EAR on
RWY 13-31. Confidence: Medium

Sat: SCT-BKN VFR clds mostly at or above 5K ft. There could be
some SCT clds around 2K ft around and just after cold frontal
passage 14Z-16Z. SW winds 10-15 kts will shift to NW then
increase to 18G28 kts. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Kelley


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