000
FXUS63 KGID 162344
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME
EARLIER STRATUS STILL HAS A HOLD ON THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT IS DIMINISHING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS
HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE NIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE A LITTLE. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT AND EXPECT MID TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ALOFT
ARE 25 TO 35 KTS AT 850MB SO DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE STRONG
WINDS...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WE BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING VERY LOW...LIKELY KEEPING US NEAR 40 OR ABOVE OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. WE COULD GET SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION-TYPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING TOO HEAVY AND IT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
REMAIN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD VERY
MUCH AFFECT WHAT OUR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE NAM IS FASTER WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...WHICH PLACES THE COLD FRONT PAST THE CWA AT 12Z
TUESDAY...BUT I AM TAKING A MORE COMPROMISED APPROACH...WITH THE
FRONT NOT MAKING ITS WAY QUITE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z...KEEPING OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE.

WE WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA TO THE EAST. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHTLY PACKED WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLY. SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL AT LEAST BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN SOME
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. I EXPECT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS OF ABOUT 45 MPH...BASED ON PROJECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISE PREDICTIONS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...LEAVING US WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WE WILL STILL HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THE AREA...WHICH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT TO GET SOME SPRINKLES
GOING...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS QUITE DRY...SO NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL ENTAIL PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WITH SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWEEPING THROUGH IN QUICK
SUCCESSION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE MILD AND THE FORECAST
LOOKS DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE WIND WILL VARY FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY
FIRE WEATHER...JCB