221
FXUS63 KGID 030533
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected to continue tonight on through
  Thursday night. Gusty southerly winds expected during the day
  on Thursday...afternoon highs similar to today, in the low 90s
  for most spots.

- Next thunderstorms chances arrive right in time for the July
  4th holiday...and there is the potential for some fireworks
  activities to be negatively impacted. Especially during the
  evening-overnight hours, there will be the potential for a
  complex of thunderstorms to be sliding ESE through the
  forecast area. Current timing suggests that at fireworks
  time/around 10PM, far western areas may be in the clear, but
  eastern and especially central areas may not be so lucky. Will
  see how models trend the next 2 days. Can`t rule out some
  strong storms, but a widespread severe weather threat doesn`t
  look likely at this time.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through
  the rest of the holiday weekend...mainly focused during the
  evening/overnight hours. Not looking at any notable swing in
  temperatures...with highs each day Fri-Sun mainly in the mid
  80s-near 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Currently through Thursday night...

Upper air and satellite data showing west-northwesterly flow in
place across the region this afternoon...set up between ridging
extending from eastern TX northwestward through the Nrn Rockies
and troughing along both coasts. Satellite imagery also showing
that outside a bit of cloud cover over eastern portions of the
forecast area, there is no shortage of sunshine. At the surface,
we are sitting in a broad pattern, between lower pressure over
the High Plains and high pressure to our southeast and toward
the Gulf Coast region. This is keeping winds south-
southwesterly, and while sustained speeds have mainly been in
the 10-15 MPH range, there has been an occasional gust closer to
20 MPH across the southern half of the forecast area. No big
surprises with temperatures today, highs looking to top out in
the low-mid 90s for most spots.

Overall, no notable changes made to the forecast tonight through
Thursday night...which remains dry. Models are in good agreement
showing that upper level ridging remaining the main feature for
the Central Plains...gradually shifting east with time ahead of
a piece of shortwave energy digging into the Desert SW.
Expecting another day with plenty of sun on Thursday...with more
clouds starting to work their way in Thursday night with the
upper level flow turning more south-southwesterly ahead of that
approaching disturbance. Not looking at a notable change in the
surface pattern...we continue to sit east of low
pressure/troughing, which will keep winds southerly. With some
tightening of the pressure gradient across the area, there will
be better potential for gusts around 20-25 MPH during the day.
Overnight lows tonight and Thu night-Fri AM remain in the mid-
upper 60s...daytime highs on Thursday are in the low 90s for
most spots.

July 4th through the holiday weekend...

On Friday/July 4th, models continue to show thunderstorm chances
returning to the forecast, potentially ruining some evening
fireworks plans. There continue to be some timing differences
between models...but in general this shortwave disturbance moves
out onto the High Plains during the afternoon hours on
Friday...with initial development of thunderstorms expected to
be tied a surface trough axis/frontal boundary. This boundary
and initial development is expected to be draped through western
KS northward through the NE Sandhills and into western SD.
Ahead of that more focused activity, models vary with how
much/if any activity develops in the region of northward warm
air/moisture advection...most models seem to be spotty at best
through early-mid afternoon, a few (like this morning`s NAM run)
are more aggressive with the QPF across the forecast area.
Through the evening/overnight hours, models show the potential
for that initial activity to our west to evolve into a complex,
passing ESE through the forecast area...but confidence in just
how this pans out is not high...there are still plenty of
details to iron out with location/timing. At this point, timing
would suggest that western portions of the area could see
activity push to their east by around 10PM/fireworks
time...timing for eastern and especially central portions of the
forecast area is more of a concern with fireworks activities.
Models showing MLCAPE values exceeding 1500-2000j/kg across the
area...but deeper layer shear is more of a struggle, showing
values mainly around 25-30kts at best. Will see how things
trend, at this point can`t rule out some stronger storms, but a
widespread severe weather threat doesn`t look likely...the SPC
Day 3 outlook has the entire forecast area in `General Thunder`.
Ahead of the better late-day precip chances, expecting cloud
cover to continue spreading across the region...with the
potential for southerly winds gusting to around 25 MPH. High
temperatures are near-normal, with mid-upper 80s expected.

Through the upcoming weekend, models showing the main area of
high pressure getting refocused back west, more into the
Desert SW. Models showing generally zonal flow across the
region...with the potential for a couple additional shortwaves
bringing thunderstorm chances. Confidence in the exact
timing/location isn`t overly high, as some details could be
affected by how Fri- Fri night pans out...but at this point
models continue the trend of afternoon thunderstorms developing
over the High Plains, then trucking east- southeast through the
evening/overnight hours. The main question then is just how well
activity holds together/how far east it gets before fading. For
both Sat and Sun, much of the daytime hours may end up pretty
quiet...our best storm chances being mid-evening and on. Again
can`t rule out some strong storms...but the overall severe
threat currently is not high. As far as temps go, weekend highs
are mainly mid 80s-low 90s.

Early work week...

Through the first half of the new work week...to varying degrees
and timing...models show that upper level high pressure trying
to reestablish itself over the western CONUS. Because models
are not showing a quick transition to stronger ridging, this
keeps the pattern across our forecast area generally zonal to
northwesterly...with the potential for additional shortwave
disturbances to slide through the region. Plenty of details to
iron out during this time frame...and precip chances remain low
in the 20-30 percent range. High temperatures are forecast to
remain fairly steady in the mid 80s-near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southerly
winds increase to around 10-15kts around mid to late morning,
decreasing again in the evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Wekesser