Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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227
FXUS63 KGID 050928
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BY MOST FOLK`S OPINION...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AND "GUARANTEED" DRY NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY UNDER WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND WITH LIGHTER BREEZES. FOR
THOSE INTERESTED IN THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
COMMENCING THIS WEEKEND AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW...FEEL FREE TO SKIP AHEAD...AS FRANKLY THE FOLLOWING SHORT
TERM DETAILS AREN`T OF GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM (ALONG WITH SOME
COMMENTS REGARDING THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS):
AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS APPEAR HEADED
A TOUCH COOLER THAN ADVERTISED...AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN THESE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS PROBABLY GOING TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO 40 THAN 45...WITH A
FEW FAVORED COOLER SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN "SAFE" FROM
POTENTIAL FROST FORMATION BY 4+ DEGREES...BUT THIS COULD BE A
CLOSE CALL IN SOME LOW-LYING AREAS. NO MATTER WHAT...ANY POSSIBLE
FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE
IN THE FORECAST. LIKE LAST NIGHT...NARY A CLOUD IN SIGHT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW WISPS OF
HIGH CIRRUS ARE EVIDENT TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE BIG
PICTURE SCENE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CWA IS SOLIDLY UNDER THE CALMING
INFLUENCE OF THE SLIGHTLY-DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-
AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO INTO
CANADA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...DEEP TROUGHS AND CLOSED LOWS FLANK THE BIG RIDGE ON
BOTH SIDES...ONE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION AND THE OTHER
CHURNING OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS PLANTED ALMOST SQUARELY OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE TO ESSENTIALLY CALM WINDS...AND TEAMING WITH
THE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES TO FOSTER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
COOLING.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH TODAY-TONIGHT:

TODAY:
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE "NICEST" DAYS OF THE SPRING SO FAR...WITH
CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS AND (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA) PRETTY DARN LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH SKY COVER
MIGHT NOT BE LITERALLY ZERO-PERCENT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...IT WILL
STILL BE VERY SUNNY WITH AT MOST ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF THIN
HIGH CIRRUS VISIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE BIG RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE MORNING WILL
FEATURE VERY LIGHT BREEZES OF MAINLY 8 MPH OR LESS FROM GENERALLY
A WESTERLY/SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BARELY
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A SLIGHTLY
STEADIER SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN...BUT EVEN THEN WE ARE
TALKING MORE THAN 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND 10-15 MPH IN THE WESTERN HALF. ONLY THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES (SUCH AS DAWSON) STAND MUCH CHANCE OF SEEING
GUSTS REACH 20 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...DESPITE THE LACK OF ROBUST
VERTICAL MIXING OWING TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME...THE FACT THAT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY CLEARLY SUPPORTS A MODEST WARM-UP AT THE
SURFACE AS WELL. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS HIGH
TEMPS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA 77-79 WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
80 WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER. FOR THOSE WITH
DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) CONCERNS (SUCH AS PRESCRIBED
BURNING PERSONNEL)...IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED
ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH PUTS MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSER TO 25 PERCENT THAN 30 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
CONTINUED "GUARANTEED" DRY UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
BIT MORE HIGH CIRRUS BY DAYBREAK...SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE AXIS ITSELF WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN CWA BY NIGHT`S END. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING...THEN
POSSIBLY PICKING UP VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...BUT STILL WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY UNDER 12 MPH.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GRADUALLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE AR AREA BY NIGHT`S END.
TEMP-WISE...DESPITE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...THE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP READINGS 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. AGAIN MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE ENTIRE CWA
INTO THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CLIMBING AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY TO PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY...EXPECT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SPARK FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT SLOWLY SINKS TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE
LINES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECT TO BEGIN TO ERODE...WITH A WEAKENING CAP...MU CAPE VALUES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SOME MODEST SHEAR. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.

LATE IN THE NIGHT SATURDAY...AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL STARTS TO
WANE...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND BETTER
SHEAR...TO RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT WAS DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY WIND AND HAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH THESE FAIRLY
ROBUST SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE EVENTUALLY NEEDED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BEYOND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SENDING MULTIPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE IT
WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS...WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S...WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LIKELY ONE OF THE TOP-10 "QUIETEST" TAFS OF THIS FORECASTER`S
CAREER...EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING (NEARLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITY...WITH SEEMINGLY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
HAZE/FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...STARTING OUT VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA...THEN ONLY MODESTLY PICKING UP TO AROUND 10KT FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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