Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280845
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
345 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

...Temps Basically Near Normal with No Rain through Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Aloft: A low remained over the GtLakes with the mean trof over
the Ern USA. A high and associated ridge were over the Wrn USA.
That config was maintaining subsident NW flow over the Cntrl
Plains. Another cut-off low was over the Desert SW. Over the next
24 hrs...the GtLakes low will sink S into the OH Valley.
Meanwhile...the Desert SW low will open up and lift N into NV in
response to upstream height falls over the E Pac. This will force
the Wrn high to open up and move over the Nrn Plains...positioning
the mean ridge axis over the Plains.

Surface: Filling low pres was over the GtLakes. A backdoor cool
front was dropping SW into the fcst area...associated with a pool
of cool air circulating around the backside of this low. This
front will be S and W of the fcst area by this afternoon with
strengthening Canadian high pres building in. Tonight this high
will be over Ontario with its Srn axis over Neb/KS.

Today: Another sunny/very pleasant/comfortable day. However...it
will be 10-15F cooler than yesterday.

Would not be surprised to see a few stratocu develop E of hwy 281
this afternoon where dwpts are a little higher under the thermal
trof.

Tonight: Clear and chilly. With the sfc ridge axis over the fcst
area...dropped low temps another 2-4F in the Platte and Loup Rvr
Valley`s N and W of the Tri-Cities where temps are usually colder.

A possible significant weakness in this fcst is cloud cover E of
hwy 281. The concern is the Wrn fringe of the expansive low cloud
shield associated with the low to the E could move in from the NE
after midnight. This is depicted by low-lvl RH fields in the
18Z/00Z NAM and GFS. Quick check of the 06Z NAM shows it`s more
aggressive...as far W as hwy 183.

Percent of cloud coverage was increased but still below what is
classified as p/cloudy. If these low clouds materialize...this
could also cause trouble for low temps.

This will need re-evaluation by the day shift.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Generally quiet and seasonable fall weather is anticipated across
the local area for the next several days.

Expect an upper level ridge of high pressure to get squeezed
across the plains over the next several days as an area of low
pressure deepens across the eastern third of the country and
another area of low pressure tracks south along the west coast. As
a result...expect dry and seasonably nice temperatures to persist
across the local area through the upcoming weekend.

Late in the period...models begin to diverge as the upper level
ridge of high pressure breaks down...with a return to potentially
unsettled weather early next week. While only minimal instability
to work with...do not expect any strong or severe thunderstorms at
least to start the week...but do expect the possibility for some
isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning late Sunday night and
continuing off and on again through Tuesday...when the main upper
level low is expected to track across the plains...bringing a much
better chance for widespread precipitation to the region. While
there are still several differences in the progression and timing
of this upper level trough and embedded shortwaves...at this time
it appears that we should see a decent shot for some precipitation
over the middle portion of next week.

Temperaturewise...expect generally mild to seasonably warm fall
weather to continue...with highs generally in the 70s each day...
and lows fluctuation between the 40s to 50s throughout the
extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Significant Weather: None.

VFR SKC thru 06Z/Thu. Light NW winds thru sunrise will become N
and increase to 8-15 kts by 15Z/Wed. Winds then diminish to 5 kts
or less from the NE by 00Z/Thu. Confidence: High

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Kelley


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