Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 301801 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT IS SAGGING SW THRU S-CNTRL NEB AND
WAS ALONG AN ARC FROM ODX-GRI-AUH-JYR AT 17Z. THIS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP PREVIOUS FCST HIGH TEMPS FROM BEING REACHED...ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS. SO HIGHS WERE LOWERED SVRL DEGS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.

AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW
DUE TO THE LACK OF DISTINCT FORCING AND THE PLETHORA OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS. CONFIDENCE IS
GREATEST THAT TSTMS PROBABLY FIRE OVER THE SANDHILLS AND HEAD SE
INTO ERN NEB. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRUSH
THE NE FCST AREA (N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES) LATE THIS AFTN.

OTHER STORMS COULD FORM OVER WRN NEB AND SW SD THIS AFTN...WITH
THEIR DYING REMNANTS MOVING INTO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS AFTN.

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL CONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...
WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE W AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA. A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU AND DEAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER SRN
ALBERTA/SASK/MT. THIS TROF WILL TURN SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND BRUSH BY THE FCST AREA IN A DAMPENED FASHION TOMORROW
AM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROF THAT WILL BE OVER SRN SASK/MT.

SURFACE: ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS SINKING INTO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE ON ITS WAY INTO THE SRN PLAINS TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE RESULTANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE.

EXPECT THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO BE EXITING THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A WEAKENING
CAP...MODEST 0-6KT SHEAR VALUES...AND 2000 PLUS JOULES OF CAPE TO
WORK WITH...EXPECT ANY FORCING FROM THE ASSOCIATED WAVE TO HELP
SPARK AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF
WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HWO AS THE LOCAL
AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL DATA...EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE SOME RAINFALL ON THURSDAY...AND FOR THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH THE INHERENT DIFFICULTY
IN TIMING EACH DISTURBANCE...OPTED TO KEEP BLENDED FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY...WHICH CURRENTLY BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT SAID...AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...WHEN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR. MULTI-LAYERED SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 13K
FT. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS HAVE SHIFTED TO SE AT GRI AND THIS
WSHFT IS EXPECTED AT EAR BY 19Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR. MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 13K FT. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TSTM. E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS BECOME NE AFTER 06Z.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING. SCT STRATOCU DEVELOP AFTER 14Z AND
COULD BEGIN AS LOW AS 2500 FT BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 3500 FT.
N-NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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