Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 301051
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
551 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

After a difficult forecast yesterday with subtle lift and abundant
instability, think it is possible again today. While the high-res
guidance does not indicate much in the way of activity this
afternoon, instability will be sufficient with 2000-3000 MUCAPE
and modest shear (20-30kts) so that with enough heating, storms
could again fire through the afternoon and evening. Have decreased
pops this morning again, but have increased them by mid-morning
bringing in a chance and increasing through the afternoon with at
least a 20-30% chance. Highs expected in the low to mid 80s.

The main show does look to be later this evening and overnight along
the cold front as it moves across the area. The front is expected
to move through after 00z from the west. Moisture transport
increases significantly as the front enters south central
Nebraska. As the front/squall line move across the plains, it
could drop another inch or more of rain and if any storms develop
during the afternoon and linger for too long, they too could add
to the QPF amounts. Some areas/counties have seen rain day after
day and are saturated and any lingering precipitation could
exacerbate the problems and cause flooding.

Precipitation is expected to persist as the front slows/stalls
over the eastern CWA overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A weak upper level wave continues to move through the area
Tuesday and precipitation lingers across the southeast part of the
forecast area during the day Tuesday. This is nearer to the front
that weakens just to the southeast of the area. The GFS continues
to bring some precipitation to the far south Tuesday night while
the ECMWF and NAM push the precipitation out of the area. Have
kept a little in the far southeast, but feel that it will move out
of the area earlier, rather than later.

Wednesday into Wednesday night, there will be a surface high
pressure across the area. This should bring some sunshine. By
Thursday the surface high moves to the east and winds will turn back
to the south. An upper level wave moves into the area Friday. There
is also a cold front that moves into the area during the afternoon.
The GFS brings the front in a little faster and has some
precipitation along the front during the afternoon, but the ECMWF is
a little slower. Have introduced some low POPs in the northeast as
the front and upper level wave move into the area. Saturday through
Sunday there are a couple of weak upper level waves that move
through the area, but since the timing of them is a bit of a
challenge, have kept the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

All is quiet as of the 12Z TAF issuance. Currently expecting the
chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. Later in the evening/overnight a cold front will move
through and expecting thunderstorms to accompany this front. Winds
will be breezy from the south during the day before switching to
the west and northwest as the front moves through. Only have VCTS
in the TAFS at this point until the timing and expectation of
afternoon evolution is better determined with a later issuance.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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