Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
532 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Radar mosaic shows scattered rain showers across central Kansas
slowly moving northeastward associated with a midlevel wave
apparent on water-vapor imagery. This activity was initially
expected to stay southeast of the forecast area, but it appears
that slower timing of the frontal passage will allow it to creep
into southeastern parts of the area (southeast of a line roughly
from Phillipsburg, KS to Geneva, NE). Temperatures in these areas
are currently in the mid 30s. With a fairly deep surface warm
layer, I expect precipitation will initially be all rain, but
could transition to sleet or snow as evaporative cooling occurs.
Impacts will be minor, but sleet and snow could produce a few
slick spots before temperatures warm up by mid morning. HRRR and
RAP show that precipitation should push east of the area by 9 or

The other forecast concern in the near-term is the threat for
drizzle or freezing drizzle across western and west-central
Nebraska. Most of this would remain west of the forecast area, so
I have left it out of the forecast for now. That said, HRRR
soundings show that it could briefly approach the Gothenburg and
Lexington areas around 6-7am. Luckily, temperatures are also in
the mid 30s in the areas that would be the most favorable for
drizzle. This will be monitored closely over the next few hours.

High temperatures today will be much cooler than previous days,
largely thanks to persistent cloud cover. High temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows tonight should
drop into the mid 20s as skies gradually clear.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Westerly winds at the surface and aloft will make Monday
significantly warmer than today, with high temperatures in the mid

A trough will pass to the south of the area on Tuesday. This will
have little impact on the weather other than shifting winds to
the north and making for high temperatures 5-7 degrees cooler than

We will have one more nice warmup on Wednesday before a strong
cold front sweeps through the area for Thursday.

Models have trended back considerably on precipitation amounts
and chances with this cold front, especially the GFS. What was
looking like a high probability for accumulating snow yesterday,
now looks like much of the forecast area could remain snow free.
Nevertheless, there is still plenty of time for this to change
before Thursday.

One thing that didn`t change is the punch of cold air that is on
the way. Gusty north winds will push wind chills into the single
digits during the day on Thursday. High temperatures in the
following days will only reach the 20s to low 30s, and low
temperatures will be in the single digits and teens.

Other than the cold, the forecast remains quiet Friday and
Saturday. Don`t expect a significant warmup before Christmas,
though. The GEFS and Euro ensembles both keep plenty of cold air
in the area next Sunday into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Rain and snow showers will stay south of the terminals this

The main impact to aviation will be the potential for MVFR
ceilings late this morning into the early afternoon as the stratus
currently over western and west-central Nebraska expands. EAR
will have a slightly better chance to drop into MVFR than at GRI.

Stratus will gradually lift back into VFR late this afternoon into
the evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight.




SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
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