Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262028
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
328 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Satellite continues to show clouds over the forecast area.
Observations show that most of them, especially in the northwest are
higher clouds, with lower clouds to the southeast. A few showers
continue to move through the area just to the southeast of the
forecast area this afternoon.

Models continue to have differences in what will happen through
tonight. For the remainder of the afternoon, have kept a few low
PoPs in the southeast near where the showers are. There are a few
showers and thunderstorms in the sandhills of Nebraska. These are
near the upper level wave that is expected to move into the forecast
area this evening and tonight. Most of the models have the
precipitation moving to the east during the evening, but as it gets
closer, there is less instability and the precipitation diminishes.
Expect that there could be a little more development along the
southern end of the area of precipitation where there is more
instability. As this develops, it is expected to move a little to
the northeast. Have lowered PoPs fairly significantly for tonight.
There is still a little instability around so there could be some
showers and thunderstorms, but do not expect there to be a lot
around. With the instability the best in the south, that is where
there is the best chance for some strong storms. Thunderstorms are
expected to linger into Saturday morning.

The next concern will be some low clouds and fog. Models are
indicating there could be some fog. Winds will be light and with
temperatures cooling off to near the current dew points, there will
be some fog forming. Visibilities will be reduced in the morning for
a time. The rest of the day on Saturday will have decreasing clouds
and more seasonal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

There is southwest flow across the area most of the week. There will
be several mainly weak upper level waves that move through the area.
Each of the waves have a potential to bring some precipitation to
the area.

Saturday night through Monday there are a few waves that move
through the area and expect some on and off chances for
thunderstorms. All of the models have a little different timing and
location of any precipitation, so mostly have lower PoPs spread
across the area. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable.

The same pattern continues across the area for Tuesday through
Thursday. Upper level waves continue to move into the area and bring
chances for thunderstorms, but the timing, location and strength of
the systems are all just a little different based on the model. Have
kept the mainly low PoPs for much of the area through Thursday. By
Friday, the models have a little more agreement in building a ridge
across the area. Have kept Friday dry and the temperatures a bit
warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A couple of concerns for this TAF period. During the late
afternoon and evening time frame, there could be some
thunderstorms around the area. The chances look to be less than
they were earlier, but still could be some around. Then, overnight
and into Saturday morning there could be some low clouds and fog
that will affect the terminals.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB



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