000
FXUS63 KGID 302024
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
324 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Satellite and observations show that cirrus has moved across the
forecast area through the day. Most of it is still thin enough that
the sun comes through, but there are clouds. The surface high that
has been over the area has moved to the east and winds are turning
to the south.

The surface high continues to move to the east tonight, but the
pressure gradient does not tighten so winds will continue to be
fairly light through the night. The light winds will allow
temperatures to fall off toward morning. Have kept the lower
temperatures, especially in the north where low temperatures have
been pretty cool.

Saturday the winds should remain fairly light since the pressure
gradient does not tighten much. They will be more from the south
during the day. There is some additional moisture that arrives on
the south winds and there will be a few more clouds. The main
question is whether there will be any precipitation. The NAM
continues to show some very spotty QPF, but there is less than the
previous runs have had and the WRF is dry. Will once again keep the
forecast dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Saturday night through Monday an upper level ridge will move across
the plains. Temperatures will warm up, with Monday being the warmest
day of the period. The pressure gradient is the tightest Monday and
the winds will be the strongest. The winds at 850mb are around 45
kts during the afternoon.

An upper level low moves through the Rockies and into the northern
plains Monday night through Wednesday. The main energy is to the
north with the upper low, but the trough moves through the forecast
area. At the surface, there is a surface low and cold front moves
into the forecast area Tuesday night. Thunderstorms are expected to
move into the forecast area during the night Monday night and spread
across the area. With the front in the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, the best chances for thunderstorms will be Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The best chances will be in the east, ahead of the
front. There is MUCAPE of up to 1000 j/kg across the east during the
afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday
before the trough moves to the east.

Wednesday night through Friday there will be northwest flow across
the area and a surface high settles into the area. This will bring
clearing skies and lighter winds. Temperatures will return to near
normal again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Cirrus has moved into the terminals. At times it may be more
broken than scattered, but should be mainly thin. Winds will turn
more toward the south as the high pressure moves off to the east.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB