Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 290847
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CONUS
CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AIDED
BY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SWRN CONUS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN BASICALLY RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AND
WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE. THE LIGHTER
WINDS...NO CLOUD COVER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REALLY FALL OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS FALL. AS OF 3 AM...LOWER/MID 20S
WERE REPORTED IN THE N/NW...WITH MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC KS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT...OUTSIDE
OF SOME MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY...THOUGH THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE MN/IA AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH THE BETTER LIFT OF THE DISTURBANCE BEING OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA AND JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR IT TO WORK WITH...KEPT
THINGS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH AXIS/FRONT SETTING UP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING TO MORE SOUTHERLY AS THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDES EAST. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE...A COOL FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

AS THE COOLER AIR MASS WITH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE
THIS MORNING SLIDES EAST...LOOKING TO SEE WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT
EXPECTING QUITE AS CHILLY OF A NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COOL ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE AND WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER. THE ADVANTAGE IS
THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZE. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE MUCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. BY MONDAY THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER.

ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COLD WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THAT
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP



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