Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 172331
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will start out cold this work week, with morning
  lows Monday in the teens. Highs will generally be in the 50s
  and 60s with a few low 70s mixed in on Tuesday.

- Slight chance of precipitation Friday, but a better chance
  over the next weekend.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions possible over portions
  of south central Nebraska both Monday and Tuesday afternoon,
  but likely not from mid-week onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Tonight and Monday...
A deep upper low over eastern Canada and the northeastern United
States extends a trough into the central United States, leading
to northerly upper level flow over the central Plains. An
amplified ridge will be over the northwestern US and a cutoff
low is over the southwestern US. At the surface, high pressure
will dive south from Canada, pushing any leftover stratus clouds
out of the area. With surface high pressure and northerly winds
aloft, overnight temperatures will be cold. Morning lows will
generally be in the teens. The surface high will slide southeast
through the area Monday, and highs will be range from the upper
40s in our east to the mid to upper 50s west. We might see a
couple of hours of near-critical fire weather conditions in our
northern counties as breezy winds return if the high moves out
of the area early enough in the afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...

The upper pattern doesn`t change a lot over the central Plains
with northwest flow aloft through this timeframe. Tuesday will
likely be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 60s and
low 70s across the area. A shortwave trough will bring some
breezy winds into the area and possibly some near-critical fire
weather conditions during the afternoon and evening Tuesday,
but no precipitation. Temperatures will be cooler behind the
trough Wednesday with highs in the 50s and low 60s. The low over
the southwestern US finally will move east across the country
Wednesday and Thursday, but precipitation with this is now
expected to remain to the south of the area. Thursday, highs
will rebound into the 60s across the area.

Friday through next weekend...
This will be our next chance at precipitation as a couple of
weather systems move through the region. Just a slight chance
for now (15-30%) with Friday`s system, but the second system
over the weekend has better chances (30-55%). Hard to say much
more than this as confidence in temperatures remains very low.
Ensemble guidance (including the EPS and GEFS) have a 20 to 30
degree spread in high temperatures depending on the ensemble
member. This far out, went with the mean of highs generally in
the 50s. With this level of uncertainty (deterministic models
call for anything from thunderstorms to snow next weekend), is
it really challenging to say much more about this system until
models resolve in one direction or another.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions through this TAF period.

Winds decrease this evening and turn more northwesterly for
Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Mangels


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