Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 201511
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1011 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AS MOST FOLKS ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY KNOW...THE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT/MORNING PRECIPITATION EVENT ENDED UP BEING A BIG DUD
(FOR LACK OF A MORE FORMAL TERM) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...WITH ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA WHERE RADAR ESTIMATION AND A FEW GROUND-
TRUTH REPORTS CONFIRM THAT A BAND OF AT LEAST 0.50-0.75 INCH FELL
MAINLY FROM NORTHERN NANCE-NORTHEAST POLK COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER
LITTLE BATCH OF RAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN FILLMORE.

JUST SENT THE FIRST DAY SHIFT FORECAST UPDATE...WHICH REALLY ONLY
NEEDED MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH APPEARED LARGELY ON
TRACK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE NEBRASKA
CWA...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-FRANKLIN LINE...ARE
ESSENTIALLY DONE WITH ANY RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...WHILE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR KS
ZONES WHICH WILL BE NEAREST THE BAND OF LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEADING EDGES OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT
SAFELY CLEARS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANY KIND OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...CANNOT ARGUE WITH
THE 13Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN KEEPING A LIMITED 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...JUST IN CASE SOMETHING CAN STILL FIRE DOWN THERE.
FARTHER NORTH...THERE IS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE
NOTED IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER STILL LINGERING JUST BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 6 IN
NEBRASKA...BUT THE LOCAL AREA APPEARS TO BE JUST BARELY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWEST OF FORCING FROM THE DEPARTING NORTHEAST NEB/IOWA
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO REALIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER SOUTHEAST NEB CONTINUE TO SEE
FAIRLY ORGANIZED BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. DESPITE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR SOUTHERN ZONES IN
NEBRASKA IN CASE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BUILDS FARTHER WESTWARD.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK AS ALTHOUGH IT
CERTAINLY WON/T GET ALL THAT COOL DURING THE NEXT WEEK...TODAY IS
NONETHELESS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH
HIGHS MAINLY 83-87.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
FIRE ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...THUS FAR...RADAR IS INDICATING THAT THESE STORMS ARE
REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LIKELY ONLY SOME DIME TO
PENNY SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS.

ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FADE...AND FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS VALUES. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

OTHER THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING THE
MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS..SETUP BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WRN TX N/NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS SITS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL COME TO PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO
BE A PRETTY NICE SEPTEMBER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER
AT THE SURFACE BEING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE IN
DURING THE DAY...BRINGING A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT WRN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES...SHOVING THE RIDGE AXIS ONTO THE PLAINS.  SHOULD
START TO SEE SRLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDING EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS LOOK TOWARD THE
EARLY/MID PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE MAIN LOW HAVING MOVED INTO THE WY/ID AREA. KEPT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY...BUT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WHICH BY EVENING SHOULD BE MORE
CENTERED OVER WY...AND CONTINUED THE LOW POPS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AS THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER ERN WY/CO.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING ROUGHLY THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AS BEING THE ONE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THOSE
PERIODS. MODELS SHOW THE LOW SHIFTING E/EN INTO THE SD AREA BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTING AT SOME WEAKENING TO MORE OF AN
OPEN TROUGH /NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS/.  THE MAIN PUSH OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /AS MODELS SHOW THE LOW CONTINUING
TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH/ THROUGH THE AREA COMES TUES NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.

LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET INTO THE THURS/FRI PERIOD...WITH
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME HINT AT
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WHILE OTHERS SHOWING NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING GOING ON. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS INTO THURS...BUT
LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RESULTING CLOUDS/PRECIP GOING TO PLAY A BIG
ROLE. HAVE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN FOR MON/TUE...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
A REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO 80 BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT AROUND 20/14Z. IN ADDITION...RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR A TS LOOK VERY SLIM...AND LEFT
ANY MENTION OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.