Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 131744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing across areas primarily
north of interstate 80 this morning. Expect this area of unsettled
weather to gradually shift east by the mid morning hours...with
more isolated shower and thunderstorm activity anticipated through
the afternoon hours. While there is a significant amount of
instability to work with...a strong CAP remains in place across
the area...and think most areas will actually remain dry through
the afternoon hours as seasonably cool temperatures continue
across the region.

For this evening...expect the weak cold front across western
Nebraska to slowly sag towards and across the local area
overnight. While coverage is expected to be fairly scattered with
this system overnight...model soundings are continuing to
indicate an elevated unstable airmass along with modest don`t be surprised to see a few strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms traverse the local area this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Temperature wise...this string of very comfortable August weather
is expected again today...with high temperatures expected to only
climb into the lower 80s this afternoon...with overnight
temperatures once again expected to drop into the lower 60s

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

An upper level ridge will move through the area on Monday. At the
surface there is a warm front that lifts to the north across the
forecast area during the day. By evening it is mainly to the north
of the forecast area and weakens. There could be a few morning
thunderstorms in the southeast before the ridge moves into the area,
but the afternoon should be dry and temperatures will be near normal
for this time of year.

By Monday evening there will be an upper level wave that moves into
the area and there is a chance for some thunderstorms. By Tuesday
there is a stronger wave that moves into the area and there is a
better chance for thunderstorms again. This will be mainly during
the afternoon and into Tuesday night. There is good CAPE across the
area, but not a lot of shear. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe across the area.

The thunderstorms will probably linger into Wednesday in the east.
There is a weak upper level wave that moves through and keeps the
showers and thunderstorms going during the afternoon before moving
out during the evening. Another upper level wave moves through
Thursday afternoon and night with another chance for thunderstorms.

By Friday and Saturday there will be northwest flow again and a few
weak upper level waves that move through. There will be mainly
spotty showers and thunderstorms at different times across the area.


Models continue to have some differences for the Eclipse time-
frame. At this time, the one thing that the GFS, ECMWF and
Canadian all have in common is that it looks like there should be
a good chance for dry conditions. The models do have some QPF for
locations around the central plains. As for clouds, there are
still a lot of things that could change over the several days
until the eclipse, but there could be some clouds around the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Confidence is not as high on today`s forecast evolution. Earlier
IFR to current MVFR ceilings have impacted both terminals this
morning and will persist into the early afternoon hours. Expect
southerly winds to be breezy before a chance for thunderstorms
this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible moving southeast into
the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Did not
include a prevailing TSRA group for now, with the high-resolution
guidance indicating scattered activity.




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