Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Today will be the last of the well above normal high temperature days
through the rest of the workweek. The pattern aloft featured a
closed upper low pressure system in eastern North Dakota with the
upper trough axis extending south across the Central Plains. At
the surface, the associated surface low pressure system was
centered in southeast North Dakota, with a tight pressure gradient
in place across our region, bringing breezy/windy conditions with
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph at times.

The upper low in the Dakotas will translate southeast into Minnesota
Tuesday bringing cold air and cloud cover to our area on the back
side of the low, and putting an end to the mild temperatures for
a few days as cold air funnels south. Following a cold frontal
passage early Tuesday, the airmass cools roughly 8C from today and
daytime temps in the 40s will feel much cooler when combined with
the post frontal wind gusts around 30 mph.

Have went with a sprinkle/flurry mention Tuesday afternoon and
evening for our northern zones rather than pops as models are
trending farther north with the better precipitation chances in
closer proximity to the center of the upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A troughy pattern will remain the dominate weather feature
through the majority of the workweek bringing cold and fairly
cloudy conditions. Temperatures will trend below normal by the
middle of the workweek (normal highs averaging in the low 40s),
with readings remaining below normal through Friday. Winds will
remain a factor on Wednesday with gusts around 30 mph possible.
Wind chill readings are forecast to fall into the teens Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night into
Thursday.

The weekend time frame will see a shortwave trough crossing the
plains with the ECMWF clipping our southeast zones with some light
precipitation while the GFS keeps the brunt of this to our south on
Saturday. Have maintained a dry forecast at this time.

Temperatures trend up by the first part of next week in rising
heights, and a more zonal regime. If extended models hold true,
this warmup could be shortlived as models suggest markedly colder
air to move in by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Main issue will be ceilings as stratus approaches from the north.
Should mainly be a VFR forecast, but there is a chance we could
see some MVFR ceiling in the afternoon on Tuesday, but MVFR
ceilings would likely stay north of the terminals. Wind should be
brisk by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Heinlein



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