Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 282328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...AT OR ABOVE 15000FT AGL...WILL BE OBSERVED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS. A WEAKER AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BE OBSERVED 09-12Z AS A
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A STRONG WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 02-12Z.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB


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