Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 130524
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1124 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Hazardous Weather: Near-critical fire wx conds and frequent wind
gusts 40-45 mph tomorrow.

Aloft: The high-amplitude Wrn ridge/Ern trof pattern established
on Dec 5th will cont thru tomorrow. A small but potent shortwave
trof was rounding the ridge axis over SW Canada. This trof will
race SE thru the Nrn Plns tonight on its way into the OH Vly
tomorrow...just brushing the CWA as it moves by.

Surface: High pres was over TX with low pres near Lk Winnipeg. A
downslope-warmed air mass was between these features in the lee of
the Rockies onto the Plns. The low will dive SE across MN tonight
...with its cool front arriving here by 12Z tomorrow. This front
will cross the CWA tomorrow.

Rest of this afternoon: Sunny and very nice with light winds.
Unseasonably mild temps. Highs will be close to 15F above where
they should be for mid Dec.

Tonight: M/clear for much of the night...then a band of multi-
layered mid-high clouds drops in from the N into S-cntrl Neb.

Broken record on temps. Unseasonably mild with lows nearly 20F
above where they should be.

Wed: Starts m/cldy as band of clouds sweeps S thru the CWA.
Clearing from N-S in the AM. Then m/sunny in the PM. Should see a
few stratocu form from the Tri-Cities N and E.

Another windy day as NW winds gust 40-45 mph. Can`t rule out a
gust near 50 mph in a couple spots.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Potentially Hazardous Weather: None currently envisioned.

Aloft: The high-amplitude Wrn ridge/Ern trof will remain thru
Thu...then deamplification will occur as a new pattern attempts to
establish. A fairly substantial trof will move in from the Pac
and mow down the Wrn ridge with much lower amplitude WNW flow
prevailing into early next wk.

As for the shorter wavelength trofs...one is slated to move thru
Thu with the next slated for Sat. Both of these will be associated
with the passage of cool fronts. Typical of pattern changes...
there are diffs in the details that might impact our sensible wx
and they need to be resolved.

Temps: Temps will be up and down the next few days...but overall
they will cont to average way above normal. Most days lows and
highs will be at least 10F above normal. Enjoy it while it lasts.
It won`t last forever.

Precip: Don`t count on much. This is our dry season. The trof
that moves thru Thu will have a surprising amt of moisture with it
with a slug of 80-90% 1000-700 mb RH moving thru. Maintained
rain/snow in the fcst. This will be a very light event with only
.01-.05". 15Z SREF suggests highest probability for seeing at
least .01" will be N of a line from ODX-JYR.

The next chance for light/minor precip will be Sat.

Beyond this fcst (from Wed Dec 20 - Christmas)...we are seeing
signs that a high amplitude ridge will build a little further W
than we`ve seen over the last wk (over the Gulf of AK). If this is
correct... the mean downstream trof will then be further W...from
Hudson Bay across the Plns to the Desert SW. This favors a major
dump of arctic air into the rgn. You can see the initial hints of
this in the CPC 8-14 day outlook. As the warmer days at the
beginning of that time frame get purged in coming days...watch it
trend colder.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions currently in the forecast for this TAF period,
though confidence in that isn`t the highest toward the final few
hours, when MVFR ceilings may work their way into the area.
Otherwise, the main concern lies with winds. A surface cold front
will be pushing through the region tonight, ushering in increasing
northwesterly winds. Ahead of the strongest winds, LLWS will
remain a concern, and have a mention going through mid morning.
Sustained speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected, as are gusts of 40-45
MPH. Speeds will diminish this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

No changes from prvs shift. Will maintain mention of near-
critical conds S of a line from Cambridge NE-Beloit KS during the
afternoon.

Another windy day tomorrow in the presence of 22-25% RH. NW winds
at 20 ft will be sustained around 20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph.

There is an outside chance RH could drop to 20% over Furnas/
Phillips/Rooks counties...but confidence is fairly high that
would not occur for 3 hrs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley



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