Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 010912
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MINOR THREAT
OF A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT...

ALOFT: STAGNANT NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINOR
UNDULATION /SHORTWAVE TROF/ ON THE TROPOPAUSE ALONG THE MT-ALBERTA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS SUSTAINING OVERNIGHT TSTMS.
THIS WAVE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND DROP SE INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: JUST AS YESTERDAY EXPANSIVE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRES
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH A LARGELY BAROTROPIC
REGIME IN PLACE. AS YESTERDAYS WEAK SFC LOW FILLS AND DISAPPEARS
TODAY...THE NEXT WEAK LOW OVER MT WILL SLOWLY SLIP DOWN THE SD/WY
BORDER THRU TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. LOW TEMPS OF 55-62F
WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.

WE HAVE NOTED A COUPLE SHWRS AND EVEN A TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CNTRL SD BETWEEN 2-3 AM. THIS IS A BIT BOTHERSOME AS I HAVE THE
FCST DRY DURING THE TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR ENSEMBLE DOES HAVE TWO
RUNS THAT BRING A FADING SHWR OR TWO DOWN TO THE SANDHILLS. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE DAY SHIFT TO ENSURE THEY ACTUALLY
DISSIPATE.

TODAY: SUNNY WITH SOME STRAY PATCHES OF CIRRUS OF ALTOCU
OCCASIONALLY FLOATING THRU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND YESTERDAYS
DEPARTING TROF SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO SUPPORT A DRY
FCST.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WAS NOT PLEASED WITH ANY OF WHAT THE GUIDANCE
OFFERED. YESTERDAYS HIGHS /85-92F/ WERE 3-5F HIGHER THAN THIS FCSTR
ANTICIPATED AND YET NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NOTHING
NEAR THAT...DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS BEING ABOUT THE SAME. THE 06Z
RAP WAS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND I BLENDED IT WITH THE
OBSERVED TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD DO WELL WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN.

USED STRAIGHT MAV DEWPOINTS AT 21Z TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOWEST
RH VS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN SD DOWN INTO THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
LOW.

TONIGHT: TURNING P/CLOUDY AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS DRIFTS
INTO THE FCST AREA. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
ROAMING INTO AREAS N OF I-80. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WITH MLCAPE NO
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. CINH REMAINS IN THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. SO IT MAY TAKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN
ANY STORMS THAT THREATEN FROM THE NW.

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN VIA THE 03Z/SREF WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN A STRAY SHWR OR
TSTM WONT MAKE IT HERE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...QPF FIELDS FROM
VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO
TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND/OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WHICH WAS INHERITED...WITH THE HOPES THAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

STARTING TUESDAY...OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PRESENTING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS HEADING INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. N WIND 5 KTS OR LESS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

FRI: VFR SKC. NNE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 17 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

FRI EVE: VFR SKC...BUT SOME SCT 25K FT CIRRUS COULD INVADE TOWARD
05Z. NNE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 01Z AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SE UNDER
5 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PRELIMINARY FINAL NUMBERS ARE IN FOR JULY:

HASTINGS
TEMP 73.6     3.5F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 1.48   2.26 BELOW NORMAL

GRAND ISLAND
TEMP 73.4     2.8F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.19   1.21 BELOW NORMAL

ORD
TEMP 70.1     4.3F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.07   0.90 BELOW NORMAL

KEARNEY
TEMP 73.0     1.7F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 0.13   3.15 BELOW NORMAL

THE MONTHLY SUMMARIES WILL BE OUT LATER TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IS JULY
WAS COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB



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