Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 212156
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
356 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Radar is starting to show some light returns spreading across
north central Kansas this afternoon...indicating mid level clouds
are beginning to encroach on the local area. Expect isentropic
ascent to intensify across the local area as we go through the
evening and overnight hours...with precip developing across our
Kansas counties later this evening...and spreading north
thereafter.

There is still a bit of question on precip type and timing...but
confidence was high enough that we will see some impactful
weather over the next 24 hours to justify issuing a winter weather
advisory across much of the local area. At this time...precip
should start off as snow through the early morning hours for most
areas...before transitioning to light freezing drizzle from south
to north by daybreak. While only a glaze to a few hundredths of
freezing drizzle is anticipated through the morning hours...this
will be enough to impact surfaces across the region making for
difficult travel.

During the late morning through early afternoon hours
tomorrow...expect many areas to transition from light freezing
drizzle to light snow for at least a few hours...before a
transition back to light freezing drizzle is expected again during
the late afternoon hours. Because of this second transition late
in the day...opted to keep the winter weather advisory in effect
through 6 PM Thursday afternoon...despite there likely being
several hours in between when freezing drizzle will temporarily
come to an end. In fact...the expiration time of the advisory may
eventually need to be extended a few hours if we do transition
back to freezing drizzle late tomorrow afternoon...with some
models hanging onto this potential for much of the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM CST Wed
Feb 21 2018

As seasonably cool...but dry day...is expected to start the
extended periods as much of the local area will climb to near or
slightly above freezing...as the region remains situated between
tonights departing system and the next upper level system
forecast to impact the local area overnight Friday into Saturday.

As this next system...currently dropping south across the Pacific
northwest...organizes across the southwest on Friday...expect the
focus to turn to the potential impacts it will have across the
local area. At this time...the 700 MB low is expected to close off
as it crosses Nebraska on Saturday...bringing a chance for
rain...freezing rain...and accumulating snow to parts of the local
area. While ultimately the exact track of this system will play a
large role in the systems impacts...it is safe to say that this
bears watching...with significant snowfall totals possible across
our north...and accumulating amounts of freezing rain possible
across the southern half of the local area. Thankfully...this
system appears to be fairly progressive...with dry weather
returning for the latter half of the weekend. This should mark the
beginning of at least a few days of near to above normal
temperatures and dry conditions...as the main jet shifts south and
keeps the focus of subsequent systems away from the local area.

By midweek...we could seen another upper level system brush the
local area...but this system is not expected to be nearly as
significant as the Friday night through Saturday system...which
will have a significant impact on at least portions of the
plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the early evening hours...
before increasing clouds associated with a system to our south
begin to spread deteriorating conditions across both terminals.
At this point...KEAR appears to be near the edge of precipitation
shield...but we still should see MVFR or lower CIGS develop at
both terminals during the overnight hours. Did introduce a -SN
prevailing group for several hours at KGRI overnight...and
contemplated introducing some -FZDZ towards morning...but decided
against this for the time being. That said...plenty of time
remains to introduce -FZDZ in a later issuance as this chance is
still towards the tail end of 18Z TAFS. Overall...winds do not
appear to be much of a concern through the period...with steady
but light east southeasterly winds anticipated throughout.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
     NEZ041-047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Thursday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi



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