Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230516

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Fire danger will remain near critical early this evening for
western zones especially west of Kearney, to Franklin, to
Osborne. The winds are very strong gusting into the 30 to 40 mph
range. The only thing preventing a red flag warning this afternoon
and evening remains the relative humidity values, which are near
that critical 20 percent, but for the most part just above it.

Am not impressed with thunderstorm chances this evening, but will
allow the slight chances to remain across our far northwestern
zones from Beaver City to Greeley and points west. The HRRR model,
which typically over does convection is showing little to nothing
happening with just a few warm sector heat of the day
thunderstorms early this evening and then dry through the
remainder of the night. The 12Z and 18Z NAM continue to highlight
just a slight convective signature over our far west this
evening. Therefore, will continue to go with our slight
thunderstorm chances in our far west, but believe most folks will
remain dry. There is modest instability and fairly high wind
shear this evening so can not rule out a severe thunderstorm or
two should thunderstorms form in the warm sector, but forcing is
fairly weak in the warm sector.

Saturday...There will be more in the way of cloud cover, which
will knock a solid 5 to 10 degrees off of our highs. However, it
will still be above normal for this time of year with our
forecast area in the warm sector allowing highs to climb into the
80s and perhaps close to 90 in some eastern zones. The best chance
for rain will be later in the afternoon and evening generally
west of a Beaver City, Kearney, Greeley line. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm in the warm sector around the
Tri-Cities, but likely not to big of a deal. Instability will be
more limited and there is just a small chance of a marginally
severe storm across our northern and northwestern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Saturday night...Do not really expect the cold front to advance
into our area until Sunday and thus the better rain chances will
continue to be confined to our far northwestern zones with little
change from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Sunday...The cold front should start to make that push further
east and more into our western forecast area by afternoon and
evening. Most of the rain will come along and behind the cold
front. Expect rain will become more widespread and heavier across
our western zones, generally west of the Hastings/Grand Island
area. There could be a pretty good temperature contrast across our
forecast area with mid to upper 80s in Hebron and Beloit to
perhaps the 60s in Gothenburg.

Sunday night...The front moves into the heart of our forecast area
and this period currently is favored to be the wettest period for
most of our forecast area.

Monday...The cold front will pass to our east and the entire
forecast area will be cooler with highs in the 50s and lower 60s
over most of the area with a good deal of cloud cover and
continued rain. The best bet for rain will now shift into our
eastern zones. 3-day rain totals by the time it is all set and
done will range from 1-3 inches across most of the forecast area.

Tuesday through Friday...Cool and mainly dry with the cold front
now well off to our east.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Wind
gusts will gradually decrease into Saturday morning to around 10
to 15 kts, before increasing to around 25 kts Saturday afternoon.
Cloud cover will also be on a general increasing trend through the
entire period. Forecast soundings show the potential for some mid
level clouds (5000 to 7000 feet) tomorrow afternoon, so I`ve
added a mention of this in the TAFs.

A few isolated thunderstorms may also develop in the area
Saturday afternoon, especially at EAR, but I expect coverage to
remain rather limited until Sunday morning




LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.