Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281734
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A breezy...but overall seasonably nice...afternoon is in store
fore the local area. Thanks to deep mixing across the
region...expect stronger winds aloft to mix down towards the
surface...with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected by afternoon.
At the same time...the overall airmass will warm 1-2 C over
yesterdays values...resulting in very nice temperatures...
approaching 80 degrees in spots...across the region this
afternoon.

The main change to the short term forecast is for this evening and
overnight hours when a weak disturbance is expected to brush the
local area. While the lower layers of the atmosphere will remain
fairly dry...cannot rule out a few sprinkles with this
disturbance...and added this mention from north to south through
the evening and overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Aloft: The last 24 hrs has done little to resolve model diff`s and
associated uncertainty in the Thu-Sat timeframe. Much of the
uncertainty is due to modeling of the shortwave trofs moving into
the Pac NW...orbiting around the low over Ern Canada...and those
breaking off from the Westerlies and diving into the Desert SW and
ejecting into the Srn Plns. Adding to the uncertainty is some of the
vort maxima fcst to our SW are bogus...generated from convective
feedback.

The global models and the GEFS reforecast and EC ensemble mean cont
to fcst cyclonic NW flow Sun-Wed with a high amplitude ridge over
Wrn N America and a low over Ontario. The Wrn ridge will deamplify
and move E...arriving over the Nrn/Cntrl Plns Thu-Fri. The flow will
weaken significantly over the CWA as the Westerlies retreat to the
US-Can border. Meanwhile...multiple small lows/vort maxima will
meander cyclonically thru the Desert SW. One of these could move
into KS/OK/TX Fri. There is so much uncertainty with the CWA between
the Nrn and Srn streams...confidence is not high enough to provide
any commentary regarding what might happen.

Surface: A cool front will be dropping S thru the Nrn Plns Sun night
...on the back side of low pres over Ontario. This front will surge
S thru the CWA Mon and become stationary just S and W of the CWA Tue-
Wed. Meanwhile...high pres will drop S out of Canada into the rgn.
As this high drifts E of the rgn Wed...the front will begin lifting
N and E as a warm front. By Thu we will be in the warm sector and
that will remain the case Fri and probably Sat.

Temps: Slightly below normal Mon-Tue...near normal Wed...then
slightly above normal Thu-Sat. The week overall will balance very
close to normal.

Rain: This week looks very dry. Believe models cont to be overdone
with their QPFs in this very quiet regime with no substantial
forcing. What minimal forcing does exist on the mesoscale will have
very little or poor low-lvl moisture as a continental polar air mass
will be in place. This will further suppress rain potential. The
"best" chance for a few sct tstms conts to be Wed night into Thu as
the warm front lifts thru and an increasing low-lvl jet advects a
plume of rich low-lvl moisture back N into the rgn (sfc dwpts 55-
63F and 850 mb dwpts (10-12C).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions are expected for both TAF sites. Afternoon cumulus
has begun to bubble up across the area. There is a chance that a
few sprinkles could develop this afternoon, but I`m not expecting
much more than that due to dry air at the surface. Gusty northwest
winds will continue through the afternoon before decreasing this
evening.

This evening and tonight, there is another chance for a few
sprinkles or showers as a weak wave moves through the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Mangels


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