Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 020914
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
314 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO START THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OF OUR
AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST ENOUGH OMEGA WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE
FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA 00-12Z
WEDNESDAY. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS A
RESULT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.02-0.05" ACROSS THE
CWA. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...ALSO FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOW...AND SUCH HAS ALSO
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM
AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE WILL BE REALIZED. TAKING THESE SNOW-WATER
RATIOS...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY PROVIDES BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG
NORTH/NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND TO START TUESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN FACT...BY THE TIME
SNOWFALL REALLY KICKS IN ACROSS THE AREA...A SUSTAINED WIND OF
5-15KTS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...ANY SNOWFALL AND
ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT OR PRESENT A "HIGH-IMPACT"
EVENT.

NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL ALSO KEEP
US DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
CLEARING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT SAID...THE EC IS
~300 MILES FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH ITS PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS WHEN COMPARED THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST OMEGA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. SUPERBLEND
OPTED TO KEEP US DRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT THIS
TIME...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD
THEN OVERTAKE THE REGION TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD
SUNDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALSO FORECAST.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS A
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TO
FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 BETWEEN LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON MONDAY EVENING. IN
SHORT...THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD CARRIES A FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY GENERALLY BETWEEN 11Z-15Z DURING WHICH A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MVFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS POTENTIAL LIGHT
SNOW BAND...KEPT BOTH CATEGORIES IN LOW-END VFR FOR NOW. THEN
LATER IN THE EVENING...EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...HAVE OMITTED ANY OF THIS PRECIP
MENTION FOR NOW. AS FOR WIND...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
20KT/GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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