Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HEADLINE AT THE BOTTOM WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS FORECAST MODELS DEVELOPING PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE
TIME BEING...INCLUDED ONLY A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS LIKELY NECESSARY ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
SOME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH VCTS ACTIVITY PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM OF
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI


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