Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290915
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
315 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Quiet conditions remain in place across the CWA early this
morning, though low pressure continues to be the primary feature
in the upper levels. Satellite imagery shows this upper level low
currently spinning over the eastern portions of the SD/ND border.
Outside of a few clouds affecting far northern and southern
portions of the CWA, skies are clear. At the surface, winds remain
west-northwesterly, with the area sitting between areas of low
pressure over the eastern Dakotas and near the OK/KS border.
Speeds are currently on the lighter side for most, around 10 MPH.

Through the short term period, models remain in pretty good
agreement, showing this upper level making at least a bit of
eastward progress. This afternoon, the low is making its way
through central portions of MN, making to the WI by 12Z Wed.
Though the better lift remains well off to the north of the CWA,
the potential for at least some sprinkles/flurries remains, as a
piece of energy rotating around the low swing through the region.
Kept the chances in the afternoon/evening hours, mainly affecting
north and northwest portions of the CWA. Also expecting cloud
cover to be on the increase today from north to south, eventually
bringing mostly cloudy to overcast skies by mid-late afternoon.
Breezy/windy conditions are forecast to redevelop during the
daytime hours again, northwest winds with speeds of 15-25 MPH are
expected, with gusts near 30 MPH. Looks to be noticably cooler
than yesterday, with forecast highs in the upper 30s north to
upper 40s north.

This evening and tonight, any precip that does move in is expected
to be coming to an end, but wind speeds aren`t looking to taper
off much. Sustained speeds of 15-20 MPH may be sticking around for
most locations. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the mid-
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Storm System Overview...The large upper level trough currently
centered over the northern plains will slide into the Great Lakes
by Wednesday and Thursday as storm system number 2 begins to dig
across the rockies. This second storm system will likely dig all
the way into Mexico and become a non-player in our weather. A
third storm system in this active pattern will begin digging
across the western CONUS by Monday. It is way to early to
determine how this third system will track and most of any impact
by this system will likely be beyond the end of the current 7 day
forecast. Consequently, most areas will likely be dry throughout
this forecast period.

Temperatures...The upper jet stream will pretty much remain south
of our forecast area through Saturday. Therefore, temperatures
will likely be at or below normal through at least Saturday.
Normal highs are now in the lower 40s and we will likely see highs
in the 30s to lower 40s through most of the period with prevailing
northwesterly winds. There will be some slight upper level ridging
between storm system number 2 and storm system number 3 that could
help us get highs back into the mid and upper 40s Sunday into
Monday prior to a cool down behind the third storm system just
beyond the end of this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Main concerns through this TAF period lie with winds and cloud
cover. Models are in good agreement showing the potential for
increasing sky cover with time after sunrise, but there is some
uncertainty with where the ceilings will end up. At this point,
kept them barely VFR, but am concerned some MVFR ceilings will
work their way south. Expecting wind speeds to ramp back up during
the daytime hours, with west-northwest sustained speeds around 20
MPH and gusts near 30 MPH. Those speeds look to continue right on
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP



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