Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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031
FXUS63 KGID 010632
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
132 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TONIGHT - SUNDAY:
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
OFF AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW MAKES
LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN TOTALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH WITH THE DRIZZLE AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS...BUT ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE. THE
HIGHER TOTALS ARE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY ENDING DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY:
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS IMPACTS THE AREA IS LOW BUT
THE CHANCE EXISTS.  HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE 60S.

THE LAST OF THE DISTURBANCES IN THIS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONDAY NIGHT...FINALLY PUTTING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION. SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY
BUT STILL AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
IS A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE
EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS CLOSER TO SATURDAY. THE GFS THEN STARTS TO BRING IN SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE SO
HAVE KEPT JUST SHOWERS AND NOT EVEN SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF THEM.
EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF IS PRIMARILY DRY...THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD WAVE
FROM  A LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE AREA. HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE CAPE. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN HOW MUCH THERE WILL BE
SINCE THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECT BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER. THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT WE
SHOULD DRY OUT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY



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