Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 092358
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
558 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The main issues of this forecast include the very small chance of
snow in our far north late tonight into tomorrow morning, along with
some potential fog in our southwest and multiple shots at
precipitation during the rest of the forecast, along with another
arctic outbreak come Tuesday, which should be able to establish much
more of a foothold than the current eroding arctic air mass.

We will be within nearly perpetual west/northwest flow throughout
the forecast with a series of low amplitude waves to give us some
potential of mainly light precipitation at times.

The next wave will be focused in the northern plains late tonight
and enough potential exists that our far north could measure a
little snow. I have included the chance of flurries as far south
as Grand Island late tonight. There could also be a little fog in
our southwest if dewpoints wind up being a bit higher than
predicted, especially near where there is snow on the ground. I
increased low temperatures tonight a tad with the expected
increased sky cover, going for lows in the 12 to 17 degree range,
with highs tomorrow in the 30s, struggling to reach freezing for
the tri-cities.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The next round would be Sunday, but trends suggest that this is
winding up to be a big dud for snow potential. Models continue to
back off on precip chances, and the only POPs we have left are on
Sunday morning in our northeast/east. Although if we did get some
precip, there is enough of a warm nose to at least give us some
sleet in some spots at onset, but precipitation would be quite short-
lived, so this would be of little consequence.

The next and best shot of snow will be mainly late Tuesday night and
appears to be largely induced by an enhanced upper level jet. We
have the highest chance of snow here at 40 percent, so we will need
to keep an eye on this one.

As for temperatures, expect highs to make a feeble comeback into the
30s for the weekend and perhaps near 40 on Monday before another
arctic outbreak moves in and gives us highs in the teens/20s for
several days, likely well beyond the scope of this forecast. I
increased wind speeds for Tuesday and Wednesday, especially
Wednesday where I bumped up wind speeds by 4 or 5 kts compared to
Superblend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

This is a very complex cloud forecast with a low stratus deck
splitting the forecast area down the center from west to east.
At 2330Z KEAR had cleared, but KGRI was still under a 4K AGL
ceiling. We also have high clouds moving back in from the west.
Low clouds are expected to eventually expand back across much of
the area late tonight, mainly after midnight. We could also see
ceilings lower to MVFR based on many forecast models as we near
dawn and this could persist through much of the morning. So clouds
are rather complex with fairly high uncertainty. Confidence in the
wind forecast is high and the wind will generally be fairly light
and out of the southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Wesely



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