Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
329 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

It was an interesting night weatherwise with thunder/lightning and
sleet to our east in eastern Nebraska/Kansas. A progressive snow
band lifted across our western and northern zones and in our
southeast counties, an area of freezing drizzle developed which
caused a thin layer of ice and some slick spots. Then in our
central zones, varying intensities of light snow tallied some
light accumulations.

The light snow or flurries will be winding down during the morning,
followed by a gradual decrease in cloud cover through the day as
a mid level trough axis lifts out. A strong 1040mb surface high
pressure system will nose south from the Dakotas and reinforce
our arctic airmass keeping temperatures from rising very little.
Steady north winds combined with temperatures in the teens/20s
will lead to wind chills in the single digits/teens. Then with
lesser clouds tonight, readings will plummet to the single digits
for lows with some sub zero temperatures possible in the Ord area.
As has been mentioned for several days, sub zero wind chills will
persist through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The extended forecast continues to have a couple of active weather
periods, primarily from Wednesday night into Thursday and again
Friday night through Saturday.

Very cold temperatures will be maintained through Thursday,
followed by gradually moderating readings as the upper trough
lifts out and the surface ridge departs the plains toward the
Great Lakes region. Upstream, another trough will deepen along the
west coast, with moisture returning north into our region.
Isentropic lift begins to increase Wednesday night, with the lift
focused across eastern KS/NE (and our eastern zones) initially,
then as a lead shortwave trough lifts out, dynamics spread across
our entire area Thursday. Looking at model soundings, much of the
precipitation should fall as snow, however there are intermittent
times where moisture lacks in the dendritic layer and therefore
there could be some freezing precipitation mixed in. The
progressive nature of the system should keep precipitation amounts
fairly light, with snow totals near one inch possible north of
the tri-cities.

The weekend is looking pretty active through at least Saturday as
the western CONUS upper trough lifts through the central Rockies and
crosses the plains. Precipitation changes return Friday night,
with the brunt of the storm affecting our region Saturday. While
models are consistent with the timing, the GFS maintains a
stronger, slower and farther south closed low compared to the
progressive open wave ECMWF solution. A stronger GFS solution
would lead to higher precipitation amounts, a longer duration and
more snow compared to the progressive ECMWF, and for now have not
deviated from model ensembles.

The latter part of the weekend (Sunday) is dry, then a
progressive, mainly northern plains shortwave trough may generate
light snow or flurries early Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The next several hours of the TAF period will see varying cloud
heights from MVFR to IFR with some periodic flurries or very light
snow. Lift decreases by daybreak Tuesday with precipitation
chances ending and cloud heights increasing. Another day with
steady northwest winds are expected with gusts around 20kts.






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