Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Winds and moisture will be on the increase the next 24 hours
across the area as expected. Tightening surface gradient by Friday
afternoon will results in 40 mph wind gusts in some areas,
possibly 45 mph gust in northern Kansas. We continue with above
normal temperatures for lows tonight and highs tomorrow. Some
cloud cover tomorrow will take the edge of the warmth a bit but it
will definitely have a humid feel for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The main story initially a cold front passing early Saturday.
Despite the increase in moisture, precipitation in general is
fairly sparse coverage-wise, although not non-existent. Best
chance for measurable precipitation is east along the U.S.
Highway 81 corridor, probably Saturday morning as the front taps
into some early morning instability riding north on low level
jet ahead of front. Once the front pushes an area, the rain risk
disappears and gusty northwest winds take hold through mid/late
afternoon. Temperatures will cooler for still in the normal range
Saturday. Sunday looks pretty nice with lighter, downslope winds.

The Saturday front is the first in a few fronts coming the next
few days in an evolving northwest flow. Another front slips
through Monday and then a stronger cold front roughly Wednesday
night. Both frontal passages look dry...but expect up and down
temperatures and likely increased breezes as a result. Fire
weather issues may arise with the very dry air and wind potential
next week. We may also open the door to freeze conditions across
north central Kansas, especially after the later week front.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The primary aviation concern will center around the very strong
low level wind shear with around 50kts of south southwest winds at
around 1,400 AGL through much of the morning. The wind shear will
decrease by late morning as the sfc winds start to increase
resulting in less overall shear and just plain windy conditions.
Current forecast keeps all thunderstorm chances east of the TAF
sites this evening, but it could be a close call and the TAFs
could be amended if things change regarding thunderstorm chances
Friday evening. The strong south southwest winds may result in
strong crosswinds on some runways.




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