Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 212323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE NEXT 24+ HOURS THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY WITH A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AND
ANOTHER DAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
CERTAINLY THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MONDAY AND TODAY WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...A NEARLY 180 DEGREE
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY...AND AT
LEAST FOR THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SPRINKLE OR RAIN SHOWER. AGAIN
THOUGH...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT
LEAST SOMETIME DURING THE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT PERIOD AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 1930Z/230PM...CLEARLY
ABOUT THE ONLY BLEMISH ON AN OTHERWISE PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS A A
BIT OF AN ENHANCED NORTHERLY BREEZE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE GUSTS ARE INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BREEZES SUSTAINED AT ONLY AROUND 10
MPH OR LESS ARE IN PLACE IN WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
A 1026 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN NEB
TO WESTERN ND. VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM A MORE
CONCENTRATED BATCH OF MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT THE CWA BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNDER THE SHORT-TERM INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ROCKIES. ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...TWO VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED...ONE DEPARTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPSTREAM ONE CHURNING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NV. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRIMARY EASTERN DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS IA. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO END UP VERY NEAR TO
POSSIBLY JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF EARLY-MORNING
EXPECTATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE 72-77
RANGE (WARMEST SOUTH AS TYPICAL). THANKS TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING UP
TO AROUND 825-800 MILLIBARS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND AS WAS
THE CASE SATURDAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EXPECTED GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...WHICH IS PROMOTING SEASONABLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 24-34 PERCENT RANGE.

TURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS SUCH. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE AFOREMENTIONED ROCKIES RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FOSTER WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AS THE
LOCAL AREA RESIDES IN BETWEEN A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE WESTERN CONUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL OPEN UP A BIT
OVERNIGHT AS IT REACHES A POSITION CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ID
AREA BY SUNRISE. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS MAIN WAVE...SOME SUBTLE
LEAD ENERGY WILL MIGRATE ACROSS CO TOWARD WESTERN NEB/KS.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE CWA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE HEART
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY BECOME ALIGNED FROM EASTERN KS
TO WESTERN IA BY SUNRISE. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS BY...LINGERING
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS THE DIRECTION
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IN TERMS OF WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...THIS
STRONGLY FAVORS AN EFFICIENT COOLING NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
COULD BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE MAINLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...A NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY-CLEAR NIGHT IS IN
STORE. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED
NEAR 700MB/ALONG THE 310K SURFACE...A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY SOLID
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT OVER
ROUGHLY ABOUT THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...ESSENTIALLY EVOLVING
FROM THE CLOUDS ALREADY ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT
EVEN EXPECTING SPRINKLES OUT OF THIS CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF LOWER-LEVEL SATURATION. OBVIOUSLY THE
THICKNESS AND EASTERN-EXTENT OF THESE MID CLOUDS COULD HELP HOLD
UP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...BUT ACCOUNTING FOR RECENT TRENDS FROM
LAST NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES FARTHER THAN
FORECAST...WANTED TO KEEP THE THEME FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT AND
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES. THE NET RESULT IS ROUGHLY A 1-2
DEGREE DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH BOTTOMS MOST OF THE
CWA OUT IN THE 44-48 RANGE AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S MAINLY IN THE
VALLEY COUNTY AREA.

FOR THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS NOTED AT THE TOP
ALL BUT MAYBE PARTS OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
GETTING THROUGH DRY (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A ROGUE
SPRINKLE NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST). IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD TAKES PLACE
AS THE RIDGE AXIS FROM TONIGHT IS FLATTENED BY THE APPROACHING
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...CONTINUED MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING LARGE-
SCALE FORCING WILL PROMOTE INCREASING COVERAGE OF PASSING MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER
SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
MORNING BUT THEN BECOME PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE THE VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT MAYBE A
FEW SPRINKLES WHICH IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST...HAVE LEFT
OUT ANY FORMAL MENTION OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE OFFICIALLY BRINGING IN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO ONLY ABOUT THE WESTERN 1/4
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 4-7PM. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH THESE SLIGHT POPS...BUT GIVEN
VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND ALSO
LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THE 15Z SREF THUNDER PROBABILITY
PRODUCT...OPTED TO PULL THUNDER MENTION DURING THIS TIME AND DEFER
TO BETTER THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE
SURFACE SITUATION...THE VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO START THE
DAY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS AND HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL
AVERAGE 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND 15-20 MPH
ACROSS THE WEST (WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ALTHOUGH
INCREASING CLOUDS LEND AT LEAST A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...OPTED TO FOLLOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL/GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS AND THUS MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 72-76 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OVERVIEW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT
WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME...RATHER A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
SHOULD PASS THROUGH WITHIN THAT FAVORABLE WINDOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 68 TO 80 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE OUR
BEST WINDOW FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE COULD
SEE SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST EVERYONE WITHIN
OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH
FORECAST MODELS INDICATING THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS MAY BE A BIT
HIGHER OR LOWER THAN THIS RANGE. MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS RATHER GOOD AND HENCE THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THEN MUCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY MAX OUT AT AROUND
1000 J/KG. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED AND WEAK...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER
60S NEBRASKA TO LOWER 70S KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
ACTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OR GET JUST PAST/EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AND THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO OUR AREA AGAIN.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MUCH WEAKER BY THIS PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL THEN GO DRY BEGINNING THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CAN NOT 100 PERCENT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH
A LITTLE MORE SUN ALLOWING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND MAY EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN OF SLIGHT POPS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY MOVE IN JUST
BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO REALLY HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S NEBRASKA TO AROUND 80 OVER
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SKIES WILL MBE MAINLY CLEAR INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING TOWARD THE
LATTER TAF HOURS. AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST MONDAY...LOOK
FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP IN THE MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY


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