Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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948
FXUS63 KGID 291042
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
542 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered light showers moved across the area during part of the
early morning hours. Rain at best was a hundredth or two.
Confidence on rain today/tonight is really quite low.

Upper flow is basically zonal with multiple small disturbances
moving through the central plains through the next 24 hours. The
latest higher resolution guidance WRF/HRRR/NAM indicate a lack of
precipitation throughout today and tonight. They keep the main
disturbances south and north of the area and think this is where
the better chances for precip will reside. If we do see something,
think the best chances for activity would be late today/evening.
The GFS/EC are more robust with precipitation, but with the number
of higher resolution guidance indicating otherwise, it`s difficult
to believe any precipitation will be that widespread if it occurs.
However, with some CAPE, but low shear, cannot rule out something
would develop later this afternoon/evening if the location of PV
waves change and support upper dynamics. Thus decreased chances
for precip throughout the day, but did not remove for the
afternoon/evening.

Think skies will be mostly clear with south winds. Highs will be
some of the warmest we`ve seen in a few days with temperatures in
the low 80s. Increased temps slightly from consensus with expected
sun and light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorms early on in the period remain the primary forecast
concern.

Overall, hasn`t been any significant changes in the models the past
couple days with the general story looking to Memorial Day/Monday.
At 12z, models remain in good agreement showing the Central Plains
under the influence of westerly flow aloft, set up between broad
troughing over the Great Lakes region and a couple of low pressure
systems to the west. These lows are located over the northern
Rockies and the desert southwest, with that northern one being the
one of more interest to our CWA. At the surface, southerly winds are
expected to be in place, with high pressure centered just off to our
southeast, and low pressure working its way into the WY/SD/NE border
area, and an accompanying cold front draped south through western
NE. During the first half of the day, it`s quite possible there will
be little (if anything?) going on in terms of precipitation, with
the better forcing still just off to the west. Winds will likely
pick up some as we get into/through the afternoon, with a tightening
pressure gradient ahead of that approaching cold front. Though
thunderstorm chances increasing during the afternoon, still thinking
the better chances will come during the evening/overnight hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western NE/KS with the
better forcing near the front, then pushing east across the area,
aided by an increasing LLJ. There is some model difference with the
strength of the LLJ, ranging anywhere from 20 to 40 kts. Potential
for strong/severe weather remains a concern with the better forcing
of this upper level system. Models in good agreement showing plenty
of instability being available across the region, but continue to
show less than impressive values for deeper layer shear, still
around 25 kts. So while that potential for severe weather is there,
it`s currently not looking like it would be widespread. Will
continue to watch how models trend. Otherwise, may see increasing
cloud cover through the day, with high temperatures topping out
around the 80 degree mark.

By the time sunrise Tuesday rolls around, the main upper level low
is expected to have moved into the western portions of the Dakotas.
The surface cold front looks to be located roughly over the
southeastern third or so of the CWA, though not all models agree on
that, with NAM continuing to be on the slower/western side of
things. The upper low doesn`t make a lot of progress east, moving
only into central portions of the Dakotas by evening, closer to the
MN border by 12Z Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances are mainly focused
near the surface boundary, across southeastern portions of the CWA,
in line with most model guidance. Better instability and chances for
strong/severe weather also looks to shift south of the CWA, but not
far enough out that confidence is 100% we are in the clear. Location
of that front will be the factor. A cooler airmass will be working
in behind the front, with highs expected  in the mid 70s. Expecting
diminishing precipitation chances Tuesday night as the better
forcing/surface front continue pushing south.

Looking at the Wednesday-Friday time frame, outside of a few
lingering showers being possible first thing Wednesday morning in
far southern locations, the forecast remains dry. Northwesterly flow
develops in the upper levels, in the wake of this latest disturbance
and ahead of ridging building over the Rockies, keeping the
potential for notable disturbances/precip on the low side, but not a
0% chance. Wednesday is currently looking to be the coolest day of
the period, with models showing 850mb temperatures falling into the
upper single digit-lower teen range. That looks to quickly slide off
to the east for Thursday-Friday, allowing for warmer air to return.
Overall, at this point, all 3 days look pleasant. North winds for
Wednesday, gradually transitioning to the south by Friday morning,
speeds mainly topping out in the 10-15 MPH range. Highs for
Wednesday are forecast to be in the lower 70s, with near 80 by
Friday.

Some hint there may be a weak shortwave disturbance working its way
through the area Saturday, but plenty of details to be worked out in
the models with timing/location, and PoPs are only 20%. Highs look
to be near the 80 degree mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Current trends show mostly clear skies and light and variable
winds at both terminals. Expect winds to remain variable until
late morning before they become southerly. Have removed the
chances for showers and thunderstorms at this time. There could be
a chance during the late afternoon and evening, but confidence in
this impacting the terminals is low. VFR conditions expected to
prevail.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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