000
FXUS63 KGID 061743
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
TO 1 MILE OR MORE AT AUTOMATED LOCATIONS EXCEPT CONCORDIA. THE FOG
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THOUGH. IN FACT..THE SHORT TERM
ISSUE IS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG HIGHWAY
81 IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE NOT GREAT AT HANDLING
THESE CLOUDS...BUT THEY DON/T NECESSARILY SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE ANY TIME TOO SOON EITHER. HAVE LOWER TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE CLOUD COVER AREAS...AND MAY DO SO FURTHER PER SATELLITE
TRENDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.

AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

KGRI MISSED ALL THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THAT LEAVES ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 20-25K THICKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY...GUSTING OVER 25KTS AT TIMES...
FROM THE SOUTH. GUSTINESS SHOULD DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
WINDS REMAIN STEADY UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TOWARD DAWN
LOOK FOR MORE VARIABLE WINDS FOR A 2-5 HOUR PERIOD...AND THAT MAY
LEND ITSELF TO SOME 5SM VISIBILITIES IN FOG/HAZE. SHOULDN/T BE A
MAJOR ISSUE...AND ANY VISIBILITIES RESTRICTION WILL IMPROVE AS
STRONGER NORTH WINDS DEVELOP. TOYED WITH IDEA OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT...HRRR/NAM/RAP ALL SUGGEST STRONGEST CORE OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE KGRI AREA BY ABOUT
04Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ