Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 301140
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TODAY: VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DONE.
LOW- MID LVL CIGS WILL BE CLEARING EAR/GRI 12Z-15Z. MARGINAL LLWS
IS IN PROGRESS AND IT TOO WILL END BY 15Z AS THE CORE OF STRONG
LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE E. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT`S NOT A LOCK. S WINDS ARE CURRENTY GUSTING
TO 23 KTS. THIS WILL END SHORTLY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO
SSW 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL G19 KTS IS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR AND ESSENTIALLY SKC UNTIL CIRRUS CIGS INVADE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE S UNDER 10 KTS.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.