Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 291529
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1029 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WORST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS FOG HAS MADE IT INTO KGRI...BUT AS OF 515 AM
KEAR HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST UNTIL JUST HAVE DAWN WHEN IT
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE. KEAR COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG
BEFORE IT ALL BEGINS TO BURN OFF. KGRI HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM
AND 200 FT AGL CEILINGS. THIS IS A RADIATION FOG AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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