Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271410

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
910 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Issued at 907 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The fog has lifted and visibility has been increasing this
morning. Have cancelled the dense fog advisory this morning. There
may still be a few patches with lower visibility for a short time.

UPDATE Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Area obs/webcams showing visibility issues early this morning,
forecast was updated to include issuance of Dense Fog Advisory
through 15Z.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A mid and upper level trough crossing the Central Plains produced
showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening into the overnight
hours, with the brunt of the storms and heavier rainfall affecting
north central Kansas. The convection was shifting into eastern
Kansas and southern Nebraska with the progression of the trough and
the pcpn is expected end across our area within the hour. Fog is the
next concern with low level moisture in place and calm or light
winds. Visibilities have been varying from one half mile to 10 miles
depending on the location and will continue to monitor trends for
dense fog and the need for any fog headline the next several hours.

Any lingering fog should erode by mid morning with clouds breaking
up and temperatures warming in a moderating airmass. Temperature are
expected to be seasonal this afternoon with highs in the low to mid
80s. Have kept the daytime hours dry as indicated by the majority of
models however would not be surprised to see a rogue storm or two
develop in the southwest flow/trough pattern as indicated by at
least one CAM forecast, and with decent instability and shear a
strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out. This being said confidence
is just not high enough to blanket low pops when prevailing
conditions should be dry.  Heading into tonight, low temperatures
will again be mild with readings in the low/mid 60s. Warm air
advection tonight may lead to a few showers and storms for our
southern zones and have carried low pops to account for this,
however confidence is not high.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Primary forecast concern continues to revolve around thunderstorm
chances. Overall confidence in regard to the precipitation chances
through the forecast period is pretty low.

At the start of the long term period Sunday morning, expecting to
see southwesterly flow aloft in place across the region, though
models do vary some with the amplitude. Low pressure looks to be in
place over the desert southwest, while high pressure is well
established over the mid-east coast. At the surface, expecting
southerly winds to be in place, as the region sits between a trough
of low pressure along the High Plains and high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes region. Uncertainty in the forecast is there
right off the bat, as models vary with the timing of the next in a
series of upper level shortwave disturbances looking to affect the
area. The 00Z NAM was a bit quicker/more aggressive with precip
across the CWA, with other models holding back. With the differences
continuing into the evening/overnight, hard to go higher than 20-30%
chances Sun/Sun night. Didn`t make any notable changes to forecast
highs, stayed closer to the drier/warmer solutions (difference
between guidance was as much as 10 degrees in some locations),
resulting in highs generally in the mid 80s. Southerly winds look to
top out in the 10-15 MPH range.

As we get into the upcoming work week, that upper level low pressure
system over the desert southwest is losing its punch, becoming more
phased in with higher pressure both its east and west. The
zonal/southwesterly pattern fades away, as ridging across the
central CONUS builds. Set up between troughing along both coasts,
this ridging looks to be a factor all the way through the work week.
That being said, there still looks to be periodic shortwave
disturbance crossing the region, and cooler mid level temps aren`t
exactly keeping this capped off. Difficult to have much (if any)
confidence in timing/location of the models, so PoPs remain on the
low side, with 20-30% chances for most. Have PoPs in each day, it
isn`t going to be a week-long rainout, it`s just pretty
difficult to completely rule out a particular period.

As far as temperatures go, not expecting any significant swings
through the week. Current forecast highs generally range from a few
degrees either side of normal for this time of year (mid 80s), with
lower/mid 60s going for overnight lows.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

LIFR conditions will remain possible early this morning, with
fog/stratus in the area. At this point, GRI is seeing the greatest
impact, but will keep the mention going at EAR as well. Conditions
are expected to improve by mid morning. Outside of that, VFR
conditions are forecast through the remainder of the TAF period,
with wind remaining southerly around 10 MPH.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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