Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 182353
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IS NOSING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD ADVECTION TO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FROST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION LEAN TOWARD COLDER
TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...CLOUDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE
AND THE WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. WILL KEEP JUST THE PATCHY
FROST IN THE NORTH.

THE NEST UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. BY
MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE
WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE LOOKING COOL AND/OR WET.

STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT A
COLD...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THRU THE
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRONOUNCED THRU THE
EVENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STILL IN THE ROCKIES TUESDAY
EVENING...AND RAIN CHCS CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT IN CONTINUED LIFT IN
THE LFQ OF JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE SYSTEM
ITSELF CROSSES THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT
REACHES NEB WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PCPN CHCS DECREASE AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES. INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THIS ROUND OF PCPN SO NO
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS COLD...WITH H85 TEMPS
NEAR ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WHICH IS NEARLY TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. EVEN AS PCPN WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY...CLOUD
COVER AND THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL WITH HIGH
TEMPS JUST IN THE 50S WHICH ARE ACTUALLY CLOSER TO SEASONAL LOWS
THAN HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 1026MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS ONTO OUR REGION. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE SFC RIDGE WILL SET UP WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS THAN THE GFS/SREF. THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC RIDGE IS ALSO AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS CLOUDS BREAK...COLD LOW
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE REALIZED. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR SFC LOW
POSITION AND SKY COVER FOR POTENTIALLY ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FROST WITH
MODEL DPS PROGGED ANYWHERE FROM 35 TO 40F.

THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
ON THURSDAY AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN
AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY. IN INCREASING INSOLATION AND A MODERATING AIRMASS TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE MO RIVER ON THURSDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP WEST TO EAST. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND PCPN CHCS RETURN AS
A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE MEAN WESTERN TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT
INITIATES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFTS ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

IN A SIMILAR REGIME OF THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH A SERIES OF
WESTERN LOWS LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORABLE AGAIN
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNTIL THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED OUT AND
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND
SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLETE RAINOUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MEMORIAL DAY
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND AND GOOD CHANCES FOR IT AT
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LOWERING CIGS AND -RA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THEN...EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN OVERTAKES THE REGION.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT OPTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNTIL CONFIDENCE OF THIS INCREASES. EITHER WAY...THE TERMINAL
SHOULD AT LEAST BE THUNDER FREE TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI



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