Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 051756
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1156 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The fcst now has sct flurries and snow shwrs mentioned for
tomorrow...mainly over S-cntrl Neb tomorrow afternoon. Flurries
may melt to sprinkles over N-cntrl KS. Will provide a little more
on the reasoning in a later edition of this product.

We may need to include some flurries well N of I-80 tonight as
well. Need to evaluate some more.

UPDATE Issued at 807 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Sent an update to boost cloud coverage thru tonight...first for
development of fairly high-based stratocu driven from heating of
this cold air mass...and second from the approach of a shortwave
trof tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

After a chilly start to the day...expect temperatures to rebound
to the mid-40s by afternoon as west/northwesterly downslope flow
will allow warmer air to return to the region. In addition...with
mainly clear skies...fairly deep mixing is anticipated...and while
the surface pressure gradient isn`t particularly
strong...stronger winds from aloft should make for a fairly breezy
afternoon...with wind gusts to 30 mph or slightly higher.

With the combination of above normal temperatures...gusty
winds...and a dry airmass...fire weather conditions will likely be
elevated...especially across portions of north central Kansas
where minimum RH values are expected to drop below 25 percent.
Winds will then decouple across the region overnight...but with
some passing high clouds and a more modified airmass....overnight
low temperatures should be mostly in the mid to upper 20s...or
about 5 to 10 degrees above this mornings chilly lows.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Northwest flow will continue across the area through the period. For
Wednesday through Friday night there is an upper level wave that
moves through the area. The cold air continues to push into the area
and temperatures will be cooler than normal for this time of year.
There will be clouds moving through the area. With the moisture and
clouds around and the upper wave moving through and the models
showing spotty very light precipitation, there could be some spotty
flurries around and the only chance for precipitation will be Friday
morning in the far northeast part of the forecast area. Winds will
continue to be breezy through Wednesday, but slowly the pressure
gradient weakens and the winds become lighter.

There will be some warm advection starting on Saturday and
temperatures will start to warm up. Sunday will be warmer yet, but a
cold front moves through the area Sunday night and cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Significant Wx: Strong crosswinds on RWY 17-35 at GRI today and
tomorrow. Marginal LLWS tonight.

This Afternoon: VFR with SCT stratocu forming 6-7K ft. Some patchy
mid-high clds may drift in from the NW at or above (AOA) 9K ft as
well. W winds 17-30 kts and gusty. Confidence: High

Tonight: SCT-BKN multi-layered VFR clds mainly AOA 5K ft. W winds
diminish to 10-15 kts. LLWS develops around 02Z. Confidence:
Medium due to uncertainty on amount and timing of various cloud
decks.

Wed thru 18Z: VFR with probably only a FEW clds to start then
SCT-BKN stratocu form 3-4K ft. LLWS ends by 14Z as sfc winds
increase 17-27 kts. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Kelley



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