Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 171121
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
521 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME PATCHY STRATUS DRIFTING THROUGH
THE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE...BUT THERE
WERE SOME FLURRIES WITH THESE CLOUDS EARLIER. THERE STILL ARE A FEW
FLURRIES FURTHER NORTHWEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE HUDSON BAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...TO
START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY. THIS TROUGHING
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST AND ALLOWING AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
TO SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING OMEGA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE COULD THEN BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE CURRENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL
RETREAT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A WARMER AIR MASS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND PERHAPS NEAR 50 ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
ALSO EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THESE LOWS WILL START OFF IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS NEAR 30 FRIDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME STRATUS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THAT MOVES
INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD BE VFR. LATER THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE
MORE STRATUS THAT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THIS TOO IS VFR.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY BUT DECREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB



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