Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Aside from the wind, it`s shaping up to be a nice weekend
temperature wise across our area. The flow aloft was northwest,
with a disturbance embedded within the flow bringing a surface
trough/weak cold front across the plains early today. Winds will
shift northwest behind the boundary and period of gusty winds are
expected, before subsiding as the surface ridge axis slides south
along the Missouri River. The downslope wind component will aid in
warming, with temperatures climbing above normal into the 40s and
50s this afternoon.

Increasing southerly flow on the back side of the ridge axis tonight
will help hold low temperatures in the upper 20s/low 30s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Even warmer weather is still on track for Sunday as that frontal
boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front and flow aloft
transitions southwest ahead of a trough digging into the Pacific
Northwest. It`s been awhile since H85 temps have reached double
digits and this warm airmass will arrive here on Sunday, allowing
temperatures to reach the 50s and 60s. As warm as it sounds, keep
in mind the warmer air will be accompanied gusty southerly winds
in a tight pressure gradient.

The warm weather from the weekend will be shortlived with the
arrival of a cold front Sunday night/Monday. Light precipitation
may accompany the front, favoring more of a drizzle/freezing
drizzle potential depending on the surface temperature, which
cools with time heading into Monday. Both the NAM and GFS support
light precipitation through the morning Monday and it doesn`t
take much freezing drizzle to cause slick surfaces so stay up to
date on forecasts with the potential for a few hours of wintry

The cold air settles in through the middle of the week, returning
temps to the 20s/30s for highs and single digits/teens for lows.
Small chances for light snow or a brief wintry mix are possible
again Monday night, with the GFS more aggressive with this than the
ECMWF. The upper trough begins to lift out of the plains Wednesday
night, dislodging the cold air and allowing for a gradual moderation
in temperatures for the latter part of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Main impacts to aviation will be from wind and LLWS during this
TAF period. Northwesterly winds today will become light and
variable this evening before becoming southerly overnight. An
impressive low-level jet is expected to develop over the area,
leading to strong wind shear just above the surface tonight.
Southerly winds may gust to around 30kts during the morning, and
will gradually taper off in the afternoon.

Otherwise, mostly clear skies will continue today with scattered
mid and high clouds tonight into tomorrow.


Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Rooks,
Osborne and Mitchell Counties in north central Kansas today and
on Sunday. For today, wind speeds will be the strongest early,
then subside during the afternoon under the influence of a
surface ridge. As temperatures reach the mid 50s, low relative
humidity values will fall between 20 and 25 percent in a dry
airmass. On Sunday, southerly winds will remain steady/gusty
through the day, however as temperatures rise, moisture/dewpoints
will be on the increase, keeping afternoon low relative humidities
in the 20 to 25 percent range.




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