Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 020851
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL
KANSAS HAS WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING THE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
MAIN FEATURES...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING THE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK TODAY...THEN SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...BUT CHANCES DIMINISH DURING
THE THE NIGHT.

MUCAPE INCREASES TO OVER 4000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
DIMINISHES QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW STARTS THIS PERIOD BUT THE UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY BY NEXT WEEK. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGING FORECAST PATTERN FOR PRECISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OR COVERAGE.

STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE BY MONDAY WILL CUT
INTO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UNTIL THEN...BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SEEM TO FAVOR MORE DRY WEATHER THAN WET...ESPECIALLY ON THE
4TH WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HAVE SCALED BACK THE RAIN CHANCE IN SOME
AREAS. ON THE 4TH...CAN/T RULE OUT ANYTHING COMPLETELY...THERE MAY
SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON LOCAL INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WHICH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
NEBRASKA. THIS PUSHES THROUGH A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND TAKES THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH IT...AND THE DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT REFLECT THIS IDEA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

IFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT THESE CHANCES ARE LOWER AND WILL LEAVE
THEM OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB



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