Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 290419
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.

THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT


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