Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 030032
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
732 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT
AROUND 65KTS NEAR 39000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND
KOAX. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A
RESULT...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER OUR AREA...WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALSO PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND AS A RESULT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST RESPECTABLE LOW TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNSET. LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD BRING
AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA AS THERE
REALLY ARE NO INDICATIONS OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA IMPACTING OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 03Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR OF ~40KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY LIKELY...FELT IT PRUDENT TO
CONTINUE A MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO
THROUGH SUNSET.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OF
THE SAME TOMORROW...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING INCREASING LOW TO
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH 20% POPS ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY. POTENTIAL ENERGY ON FRIDAY
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE...AND WITH
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30KTS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FINALLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 10-14Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TO START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE AREA SITTING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE FIRST
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD THE GULF REGION AND THE OTHER MOVING OUT OF
THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS
ON THE WEAKER SIDE...WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING TOWARD THE
MIDWEST.

CURRENTLY EXPECTING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
SATURDAY/JULY 4TH TO BE DRY...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING/FIREWORKS TIME...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT DISTURBANCE THAT
STARTED THE PERIOD CLOSER TO THE NRN ROCKIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED LOW
POPS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON BEING ACROSS
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST POST-00Z. MODELS STILL
VARY SOME REGARDING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MIGHT DEVELOP...THOUGH MOST ARE ON THE MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SIDE OF THINGS...THE GFS IS ON THE HEAVIER SIDE. STILL SOME
DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
EAST TO NEAR 90S IN THE W/SW.

HAVE SOME 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TO BE A DAY IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...POPS ARE TIED TO ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COLD END BEING NOTHING. MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES CREEPING INTO FAR W/NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...SHOWING A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NC CANADA READY TO SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN
ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z. INCREASING CHANCES /40-70 PERCENT/ OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH TIME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BY 12Z MONDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT
SHOWING THE FRONT ABOUT 2/3RDS OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
MONDAY.

THINGS DRY OUT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
SITS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES WORKING
THEIR WAY BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

80S/90S STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY IS TRICKY WITH
THE FRONT STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA...TUESDAY IS
COOLER IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S BEFORE WARMING BACK UP FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND WE ARE JUST
DEALING WITH A FEW REMAINING GUST FRONTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
DECREASING WINDS THAT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. MULTIPLE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GET. WILL GO PESIMISTIC AND
CALL FOR IFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.