Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Aloft: A small low was over SW KS and it will cont moving E
across Srn KS tonight and into the mid-MS Vly tomorrow. A
shortwave ridge will arrive over the fcst area (FA) in its wake
tomorrow. Meanwhile ...the next trof will move onshore in the W
and dig into the Desert SW.

Surface: 1003 mb low pres sys was over the TX Panhandle and
moving E...while weak high pres was over the Nrn Plns. The low
will remain well S of the FA tonight while weak the high builds in
tonight. This high will drift E of the rgn tomorrow while a lee
trof strengthens to the W.

Now thru sunset: Mainly cloudy...but some fortunate folks will see
some sun W of Hwy 183 over S-cntrl Neb. A band of rain is maturing
in the def zone N of the upr low and this will affect mainly
N-cntrl KS.

Tonight: Periods of rain...mainly over N-cntrl KS...but a little
will probably sneak up into S-cntrl Neb for a time. M/cldy and
expect to redevelop. There is some potential it could be dense
(1/4 mi or less) as mid-high clouds strip away to the E after 3 AM
leaving just the stratus.

Mon: Cldy/foggy in the morning...but expect gradual if not rapid
improvement from W-E. Stratus should break up and lift into
a deck of stratocu in the afternoon with the greatest coverage E
of Hwy 281...under the thermal trof/cooler air aloft.

Once we lose the clds/fog...Mon will be the best day of the week.
A very nice afternoon expected with essentially no wind (at least
by Neb/KS standards).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Aloft: SW flow will develop Tue as a newly formed low advances
thru the Desert SW. The last 3 runs of the UKMET/GFS/EC/GEM and
the GFS and EC ensemble means start off tightly clustered with
the low ejecting NE into the TX/OK panhandles Wed...then across SE
KS Thu. The 12Z runs came into much better agreement/more tightly
clustered with its forward speed and location Thu. This system
will probably not linger as prvs slower runs indicate since
another low forms and drops into the Desert SW Thu-Fri. That
should result in a shortwave ridge here Fri. There is considerable
spread with what happens with the the new low...but spread seems
to be decreasing. The deterministic model consensus cuts the low
off from the flow somewhere near the Mex border. The 00Z and 12Z
EC departs from this and lifts the low NNE into the Cntrl Plns.
The EC ensemble mean supports both options. The 12Z GFS came
closer to the EC idea...while the 12Z GEM remained cut-off over

Surface: Large/strong high pres will be over cntrl Can Tue and
gradually drift E thru the week. Cyclogenesis will be underway
over NM Tue. This low will slowly lift NE across TX-OK-AR-MO Wed-
Thu. As this sys heads into the mid MS and OH Vlys Thu-Fri...the
fleeting high will temporarily build into the rgn. Clearly there
is uncertainty next there isn`t much value in trying
to pin down any details. If the more progressive trend is right...
then another chance of rain will be in the offing.

Some sensible wx details...

Hazardous Wx Potential: The only thing currently envisioned is
aviation-related as IFR conds are likely Wed-Thu.

Rain: It`s looking very good Tue-Thu if the modeling is right.
This is what we disparately need...multiple waves of steady light
soaking rain with the def zone setting up over the FA and
persisting. The 00Z EC ensemble mean has 1-2" from N-S and this
more or less agrees with the last 2 deterministic EC/GFS runs.

EC ensemble probabilities for at least 1" are 50-75% along and N
of I-80 with the lowest probs up by Ord/Greeley. S of I-80 prob
for at least 1" are 80-90%. Keep in mind these probs are imperfect
...meaning that they may not encompass the entire spectrum of
potential possibilities. So these amts are no guarantee.

The #1 analog from the Cooperative Institute for Precip Studies is
4/7/2013 when 0.5 to 0.75" fell across the entire FA. That would
still be a very healthy/beneficial rain.

Thunder: still none yet and we don`t anticipate there will be any.
The FA will be far N of the dry there won`t be anything
to introduce instability.

Temps: Mon will be the warmest day of the week. Overall I think
our fcst daytime temps are a little too warm every day...and
probably a lot too warm Thu. Expect our fcst to trend cooler. This
will be a fairly cool week with the week averaging below normal
during the day...and a little above normal at night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Ceilings should generally continue to lower tonight, with some
bumps on the way down. Visibility will also decrease, but
confidence is not as high, but there should be a period of at
least IFR at KGRI tonight, but not as confident a bit farther west
at KEAR.




LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Heinlein is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.