Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 131202
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
702 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE ABNORMALLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OUR FROSTY START TO THE WEEKEND THIS MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE HISTORICAL
SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS COLD SNAP.

TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH OUR AREA FINALLY SEEING SOME GOOD SUNSHINE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE SFC HIGH NOW OFF TO OUR EAST WE WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE MODERATING
TREND. THIS COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP ADD
CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ONTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT NORMAL HIGHS ARE STILL
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL HELP TO ADVECT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS UP A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT...WHERE AS EARLY THIS MORNING IT WAS TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE NET RESULT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY MORNING THAN OUR FROSTY START THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

TAKING AN OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS A WHOLE...THE MAIN
THEME IS THAT THESE PAST FEW SEASONABLY CHILLY DAYS WERE CERTAINLY
NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT THE NEXT WEEK HOLDS...LET ALONE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. PUT ANOTHER WAY...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
SEASONABLY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IN
STORE...AND IN FACT BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 60S RANGE...MEANING HUMID
TERRITORY. NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH THE RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND MOISTURE LEVELS...AT LEAST A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST AND
MOST IMMEDIATE CHANCE IS RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY MORNING
AS A QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THEN AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES CENTERED ON
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY...RATHER
LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE AT
VARIOUS POINTS FROM WED NIGHT-FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL-BEST
RAIN CHANCES BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ACTUALLY APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST
DURING THE FRI NIGHT-WEEKEND TIME FRAME...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE USUAL WEALTH OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 7
DAYS...WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY SPECULATION BEYOND FRIDAY DAYTIME AT
THIS TIME.

AS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE MID-LATE WEEK CHANCES
ARE JUST TOO FAR OUT TO EVEN REALLY COMMENT ON YET ALTHOUGH OF
COURSE THIS POSSIBILITY LIKELY EXISTS TO SOME DEGREE. IN THE
NEARER-TERM...AM ACTUALLY THINKING MORE AND MORE THAT AT LEAST
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA COULD SEE A FEW REASONABLY
STRONG ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST SMALL HAIL ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SPC SREF 3-HOUR
SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY PRODUCT. SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THOUGH...THE
OFFICIAL SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DOES NOT EVEN ADVERTISE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS ADMITTEDLY A BIT PERPLEXING TO THIS FORECASTER
GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DEPICTIONS.

GOING INTO GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING THINGS IN
MAINLY 24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS THE
MAIN STORY IS THAT THE GRADUAL TEMP RECOVERY CONTINUES AND AT
LEAST FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE WHILE AT THE SURFACE...MODEST HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS
WILL PROMOTE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WHICH
SHOULD PULL DEWPOINTS BACK UP INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING SKIES AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPS ARE AIMED TO AT LEAST REACH THE 70 MARK IN
MOST AREAS...AND AM FORECASTING A RANGE FROM UPPER 60S FAR NORTH
TO MAINLY MID 70S SOUTH. THEN FOR SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN TO THE CWA...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW HAVE POPS AIMED NO HIGHER THAN 40-50 PERCENT. THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NORTHEAST IA...WHICH
WILL INDUCE AN INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AFTER
DARK FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CERTAINLY STILL QUESTIONS
ON HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDER MIGHT BE VERSUS JUST GENERAL SHOWER AND
MAYBE EVEN DRIZZLE-TYPE PRECIP...THE LAST FEW NAM RUNS CLEARLY
SHOW ELEVATED MUCAPE CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE
850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STRONG 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ON
PAPER...THIS COULD EVEN SUPPORT SEVERE-CRITERIA HAIL SIZE...BUT
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY A SMALL HAIL MENTION
IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. NUDGED DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT GENERALLY AIMING MOST OF
THE CWA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 50-57.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY ZIPS OFF INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CONUS...PLACING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER INCREASINGLY QUIET NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. PRECIP-WISE...LINGERED 20-30
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA
PRIOR TO 18Z/1PM...AND AT LEAST FOR NOW LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON DRY ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST
THAT SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER IN KS ZONES A FEW HOURS LONGER. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 67-71. THEN FOR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE AS LOW TEMPS COOL BACK OFF
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NOW KEPT THIS ENTIRE
24 HOURS VOID OF PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED FAIRLY
CONFIDENTLY BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT
ALREADY BY TUES NIGHT UNCERTAINTY GROWS AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AT
LEAST SPOTTY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE WORKS THROUGH. THIS BEARS WATCHING. HIGH TEMPS AIMED BACK
INTO THE 70-74 RANGE MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS SUGGEST
SPOTTY SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL COULD EXIST AT ALMOST ANY TIME...BUT
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY BEFORE SLIGHT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
RE-ENTER THE PICTURE WED NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY
AS MODELS AGREE ON AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPS BUMP UP A NOTCH WITH GENERALLY MID-
UPPER 70S FORECAST MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT POPS OUT OF DAYTIME PERIOD BUT
INTRODUCED THEM TO MOST AREAS AT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW. PRIMARY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF THIS PERIOD
SHOULD STAY DRY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THIS TIME. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BOOST BOTH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND HAVE HIGH TEMPS UPPER 70S-LOW 80S MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY AND
WITH WHAT SPATIAL ORIENTATION DOES THE AFOREMENTIONED LEADING
EDGES OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR NOW...MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES WHILE
LEAVING SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT THIS
IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
AWHILE...PRELIMINARILY HAVE NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE
LOW-MID 80S...AND IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ONTO ANYTHING
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH BY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

HERE ARE VARIOUS NOTES ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AT OUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GRAND ISLAND COVER 119 YEARS DATING BACK TO
1896...WHILE HASTINGS RECORDS COVER 108 YEARS DATING BACK TO 1907:

- FOR BOTH SITES: IT APPEARS BOTH SITES LIKELY NARROWLY MISSED
TYING THEIR SEP. 13TH RECORD LOW OF 34. GRAND ISLAND SET THIS
RECORD IN 1979...1949 AND 1902...WHILE HASTINGS REACHED IT ONLY IN
1949.

- FOR GRAND ISLAND: AS OF 7 AM CDT THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE HAD
DROPPED TO 36 DEGREES (THE VALUE THAT GENERALLY DEFINES THE UPPER
END OF FROST POTENTIAL). AS A RESULT...GRAND ISLAND HAS IN FACT TIED
WITH 9-13-1949 FOR THE 8TH-EARLIEST FALL LOW TEMP OF 36 DEGREES
OR LOWER ON RECORD. 9-3-1974 RANKS AS THE EARLIEST...WHEN IT
DROPPED TO 34 DEGREES.

- FOR GRAND ISLAND: THE LAST TIME IT REACHED 36 DEGREES OR COLDER
BEFORE SEP. 13TH WAS 9-12-1975...WHEN IT GOT TO 36 DEGREES.

- FOR HASTINGS: AS OF 7 AM CDT THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE HAD
DROPPED TO 35 DEGREES. AS A RESULT...HASTINGS HAS IN FACT TIED
WITH 9-13-1949 (34 DEGREES) FOR THE OUTRIGHT-EARLIEST FALL
OCCURRENCE OF 36 DEGREES OR COLDER.

- FOR HASTINGS: IN MORE RECENT DECADES...THE ONLY TIME IT REACHED
36 DEGREES OR COLDER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER WAS IN
1993...WHEN 35 DEGREES WAS RECORDED ON SEP. 15TH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



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