Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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560
FXUS63 KGID 251931
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
231 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

...A Very Busy Pattern Conts the Next 7 Days with at Least 2 More
Chances for Meaningful Rainfall and the Mid-Week System Could be a
Thorough Soaker in Some Areas...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: Fog likely late tonight thru Sun
AM and it has potential to be dense (1/4SM vsbys or worse).

Aloft: A slow-moving low was over MO and a shortwave trof was
advancing thru the SW USA. This trof will kick the low NE tonight
with the intervening ridge moving over the fcst area (FA). The
trof will arrive tomorrow and track across the Srn Plns with a
small low moving E across KS.

Surface: The low pres sys that moved thru the last couple days to
the E. An axis of the high over Ontario/Quebec extended SW across
Neb into CO...while a cool front was making its way thru the Wrn
USA. High pres will remain overhead tonight. The front will cont E
with lee cyclogenesis occurring along the NM/CO border. The newly
formed low will head E tomorrow into Nrn TX. The Nrn portion of
the front will weaken and move into the FA as an inverted trof.

Now thru sunset: Mainly cldy...dry and chilly except over the Wrn
fringe of the FA where some sun has been/is occurring.

Tonight: Cldy/foggy. Areas that have seen the sun W of Hwy 183
will cloud-up. E-NE winds will advect the stratus W and this is
shown by all hi-res models.

Conds are ripe for fog. Low stratus has lingered thru the day for
most of the FA...keeping temp-dwpt depressions low and BL flow is
from the NE where it has been raining today...meaning that
incoming air is very moist.

There is potential for dense fog...but there are a couple
mitigating factors that reduce confidence: 1) the invasion of
thick multi-layered mid-high clouds from the W which will reduce
radiational cooling. 2) Where stratus remains locked in...does it
build down low enough for 1/4 SM vsbys?

Sun: Cldy/foggy thru the AM and the low clds will probably last
well into the day. They will be hard to get rid of with contd E-NE
low-lvl flow. Expect some erosion/dissipation will occur W of Hwy
281...but even still it will only reveal multi-layered mid-high
clds.

Used consensus of model 2m temps for high which does well in
these situations. That kept areas N and E of the Tri-Cities the
coolest.

A bit of -RA will move into the SW 1/3 of the FA after 3 PM on
the N side of the low moving acrs KS.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: None currently envisioned outside
of probable aviation concerns with IFR conds expected Wed-Thu.

We have are currently in a window of opportunity for increased
legitimate precip chances and it will last for about the next 10
days before ensemble means hint at a return to NW flow.

Aloft: A shortwave ridge will move thru Mon ahead of the next
trof moving onshore and digging into the Desert SW. The flow aloft
will turn SW Tue as a newly formed low progresses from AZ into
NM. It is a good sign that this low is fcst to be a slow-mover
...lifting into the TX panhandle Wed and then across KS Thu to be
somewhere near MCI by 00Z/Fri. As is predecessor...this low will
get kicked NE as another low forms over the Wrn USA and drops into
the Desert SW Fri. So a ridge should be overhead Fri. There are
indications from the last 2 runs of the GEM/EC/GFS that this low
might cut-off over the Mex-AZ-NM border. But the EC ensemble mean
suggests it could lift NE into the Plns as well. Plenty of time
btwn now and then to iron out the details.

Surface: Canadian high pres will cont to nose S into the FA Mon-
Tue while the next Pac cool front progresses thru the Wrn USA. But
cyclogenesis will commence over NM. This low too will head E
across the Srn Plns Wed-Thu and then head toward the GtLakes Fri.
An inverted trof N of this system will move into the FA Tue night.
Weak high pres will slowly build into the rgn Thu-Sat.

Precip: The shield of RA will move out Sun night...mainly
affecting N-cntrl KS. Parts of the FA have the potential to get
drenched with more much-needed rainfall Wed-Thu. Amts depend on
where the def zone sets up and pivots or become stationary for a
while. Still no thunder in the fcst. We`d need a diff track. Can`t
entire full out a strike or two...but evidence is not strong
enough that sufficient instability will exist.

Temps: Near normal Sun. A little above normal Mon-Tue. We are
probably too high Wed-Thu with periods of RA and heavy/thick
cloud cover. These days should both be cooler than normal. Fri-Sat
back to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFs through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Significant Wx: IFR thru 18Z/Sun. Fog will reduce vsbys below 1SM
roughly 10Z-15Z.

This Afternoon: IFR CIGs will lift a little allowing vsbys to
improve. N-NNE winds 8-12 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: IFR conts with CIGs/VSBYs lower. Conds are favorable for
fog. Multiple sets of fcst guidance is suggesting 1/4SM FG VV002
but there are some mitigating factors...so only went 1/2SM. Lgt
NNE winds drop 5 kts or less. Confidence: Medium

Sun thru 18Z: IFR. VSBYs should improve after 16Z as CIGs begin to
lift. Lgt mainly NE winds 5 kts or less. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley



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