Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 010536
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1136 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Main issue will be determining chances and type of precipitation
next week.

The deep closed low to the northeast that helped to give us sky
cover/flurries today will continue off to the east. The lessening
influence of the closed low, along with less instability toward
sunset, will shut off our chance of flurries come evening. I did
increase wind gusts in the north this evening more in line with
CONSRAW.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

By Friday, a deep trough with a closed low moves into the
southwestern United states and the closed low within the positively
tilted longwave trough will track southeast into Mexico by Saturday.
The best support for precipitation will remain south of the forecast
area for Friday night into Saturday, with most models keeping us
dry, except for some light qpf showing up on the GFS in our far
south.

The overall scenario for Monday/Monday night may be complex as the
closed low in the south could make a sharp turn to the north
northeast as a new broad longwave trough covering the northwestern
United States, including the northern Rockies and into the northern
Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sweep through
Monday afternoon/evening and give us a shot at precipitation. For
now, this looks like rain for Monday, but we may get just enough
cold air to finish off with some light snow activity Monday night.

The better chance of precipitation may very well be Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a reinforcing shortwave deepens the longwave trough
to the west and could very well eject into the Plains late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The ECMWF, which had previously flipped to
less qpf for this system, now has come back into agreement with the
more robust GFS. This is a long way out, so the half foot or so snow
potential being forecast by some long range models must be kept with
somewhat a grain of salt. There is a lot of time for changes, and as
mentioned earlier, the situation is complex enough to elude
consistency among models for a couple more days.

Temperatures will remain rather cool, except for a brief warm-up
Sunday/Monday before the cold front passes through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Quiet weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. Wind speeds have finally diminished this evening, with
speeds through the period expected to top out around 10 MPH.
Winds look to be west-northwesterly through much of the period,
turning more north-northwesterly toward the end.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...ADP



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