000
FXUS63 KGID 150550
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO WANE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN
SO...CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THIS AFTN: EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO ERUPT ALONG THE APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. TEMPS IN THE 90S WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE OF
2000-3500 J/KG. CHARACTER OF THE TSTMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE MESOSCALE AIR MASSES IT
SEPARATES. MESOSCALE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORM MODE...AND FURTHER ENHANCED BY LARGE
25-30F SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THE LACK OF SUPERCELLS WILL LIMIT THE SIZE
OF THE HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT HAS "JUMPED" TO JUST E OF THE FCST AREA. SO WINDS ARE
NOW UNIDIRECTIONAL. SO THE DECREASED LOW-LVL SHEAR AND HIGHER LCL
HGTS WILL MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.

PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE SPC VIA THEIR OUTLOOKS AND
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...AND ALL FUTURE STATEMENTS/WATCHES/WARNINGS
FROM THIS OFFICE.

SKYWARN: LOOK FOR ACTIVATION BETWEEN 3PM-5PM.

TNGT: GIVEN OUTFLOW DOMINANCE OF THE TSTMS...EXPECT THEM TO ORGANIZE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COMBINED COLD POOL AND FORM AN MCS THAT
ROUNDS THE UPR RIDGE. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT /PRIOR TO MCS
FORMATION/ WILL BE OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO OUR FCST AREA.

SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHAT OCCURS AFTER THE INITIAL
TSTMS DEVELOP AND EXIT TO THE E. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
W-E NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER...AND THE LLJ FCST TO DEVELOP /45 KTS/
OVER WRN KS...HAVE TO WONDER IF ADDITIONAL TSTMS FORM DEVELOP AT ITS
NOSE AND LIFT N INTO OUR NEB COUNTIES AFTER MIDNGT.

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE SREF QPF PROBABILITIES INCREASE AFTER
MIDNGT AND 24 HR QPF VERIFICATION /FOR THE LAST 3 MONTHS/ SHOWS THAT
THE SREF HAS SOME OF THE HIGHER SCORES FOR QPF AMOUNTS OVER A TENTH.

THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THESE TSTMS FORM OVER OUR FCST AREA. SOME
MODELS INDICATE THEY DEVELOP OVER NRN NEB.

THE RRQ OF THE 80 KT ULJ SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED.

THE CONFIGURATION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
MADDOX FRONTAL TYPE FLASH FLOOD MODEL. SO OVERNGT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. CORFIDI VECTORS LOOK THREATENING
WITH MOVEMENT OF MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

POPS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS THRU 04Z AND THEN
SREF THEREAFTER.

SAT: SCT TSTMS COULD BE ON-GOING AT DAWN. FRONT REMAINS STALLED W-E
SO TSTMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME DURING THE DAY...BUT OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DAYTIME BREAK BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 4 PM. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AS
AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.  AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES AROUND FM LINGERING
CONVECTION. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING HEADING INTO THE
EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR STORMS EXIST OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF SFC LOW/TROUGH ALONG HIGH PLAINS
ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH NC KANSAS SEEING THE HIGHER PCPN
CHCS DUE TO SFC LOW POSITION...WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS DO SUGGEST
BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER ACROSS NEB/KS WHICH WILL BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IN WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
TO THE WEST ALONG SFC TROUGH. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND WITH
SFC DPS IN THE 60S...LENDING TO INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AROUND 3000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS PROGGED AROUND 30KTS. WITH
BOUNDARY/BOUNDARIES AROUND AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THRU...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.

A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS IN ON MONDAY AS WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER PCPN WILL
DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF FRONT OR IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY BUT
PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY VS BLANKET POPS EACH DAY WHEN CHCS DO NOT
APPEAR OVERLY PROMISING JUST YET.  UNDER INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
RIDGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY INTO TUESDAY.  CHCS FOR
CONVECTION RETURN WITH RETURN OF MOISTURE/RETURN FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIT OR MISS CHCS DEPENDING ON TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
WEAK DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KGRI AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR CHAOTIC WINDS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HEAT BURSTS FROM THESE DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN SOME 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. WILL JUST CALL FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY VICINITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY IN THE KGRI AREA. WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN THE WINDS TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT ALTHOUGH STILL NEARBY IS MORE LIKELY TO
BE JUST SOUTH OF KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SAR
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY