Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221800
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
100 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Updated the forecast to make higher chance POPs follow more
closely to the cold front moving through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

We have a weak shortwave tracking east across Kansas early this
morning bringing showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two to
our Kansas counties. A second weak shortwave will track southeast
out of South Dakota and into Nebraska by late this afternoon and
evening bringing with it a cool front.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this
morning primarily south of Hwy 6 in association with the southern
shortwave. There should then be a bit of a lull in rainfall across
our forecast area during the early afternoon hours before the
second shortwave kicks off some convection probably sometime
after 3 pm with increasing thunderstorm development along the cool
front into the evening hours.

The afternoon thunderstorms will likely form in a broken
northeast to southwest line probably running from around Osceola,
to Hastings, to Alma. These storms will then slide southeast
through the evening hours. There could be a few higher based
thunderstorms northeast of this line during the afternoon hours,
but with less confidence. Surface based CAPE values of just over
1000 J/kg and 0-6 km deep layer shear values of 35-40 kts along
the front will be sufficient to possibly produce a few marginally
severe thunderstorms. Quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph
will be the primary threats. There is also the possibility of a
few gustnadoes along thunderstorm outflow boundaries given pretty
good sfc vorticity and some low level CAPE along the front. These
same parameters could also support the slim outside chance of a
brief landspout tornado. The primary time to watch for possible
severe thunderstorms will be between 4 and 8 pm.

Temperatures...Went a little cooler than Superblend across
north central Kansas due to expectation of clouds and showers
through the morning. The window to warm up between the morning
showers and early evening convection across north central Kansas
will be rather limited.

Tonight...Thunderstorms will quickly lose their intensity but
could linger throughout the evening across north central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Tuesday will likely be the coolest day of the forecast period.
Behind the cold front, high temperatures will only reach the low
60s with northwest winds gusting to around 30 MPH. A combination of
cold air advection and an amplified upper level low will bring a
chance for some light showers, particularly during the afternoon.

Wednesday and most of Thursday are still looking dry, as the
pesky upper low finally exits the Midwest.

Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday evening as a quick moving
shortwave moves through. Right now, the timing of this wave would
keep the initial severe threat farther to the west across western
Kansas and Nebraska, likely bringing a cluster of thunderstorms
through central Nebraska and northern Kansas late Thursday night.
The GFS has a gradient of 500 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE during this
timeframe, so strong to severe storms aren`t out of the question,
but enough uncertainty still exists to preclude mention in the HWO.

The daytime of Friday looks dry, but yet another shortwave will
bring a chance for rain and storms to the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning. Given the timing and the lack of instability,
I`m not concerned with much of severe threat during this timeframe.

A deeper trough over the western CONUS will progress through the
area Saturday into Sunday flow through Saturday, therefore chances
for rain and storms continue through this period. Of note, the GFS
brings this directly through Central Nebraska, but the Euro is quite
a bit farther south. There`s still plenty of time to work out these
differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Cold front moving in this afternoon will give us a good chance of
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Hence, wind gusts could come
up some as these showers transfer stronger wind speeds to the
surface. There is an outside chance of marginally severe weather
this afternoon/evening. Showers and sky cover and wind will
decrease shortly after sunset, but will increase by late morning
Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Heinlein


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