000
FXUS63 KGID 290537
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1137 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WITH AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ALOFT...EXPECT HEIGHTS TO RISE AS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITIONS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE AIRMASS
BEGINS TO MODERATE SOME IN THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO SOAR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. THE ONE QUESTION REMAINS HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY AS
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A MOSTLY SATURATED LAYER AROUND
900MB...BUT THINK ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR AND BETTER MIXING IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

ENJOY THIS UPCOMING INTERRUPTION TO THE COLD PATTERN BECAUSE WINTER
WX WILL RE-EMERGE WITH INCREASING FORCE AFTER 11/31.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PERSIST FRI NIGHT THRU MON...UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVES THRU TUE. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO SW WED-THU. THIS
RIDGE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES...CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN USA. WHILE ALL
THIS HAS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE VIA MULTIPLE DAYS OF MONITORING N
AMERICAN AND EC ENSEMBLES MEANS...NUMEROUS FCST PROBLEMS EXIST WITH
THE PLETHORA OF SHORTWAVE TROFS THAT WILL BE ORBITING AND EJECTING
OUT OF THE EVOLVING WRN USA TROF. IT IS THESE TROFS THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF OUR SENSIBLE WX. MODEL DISPERSION BEGINS TO
INCREASE AS EARLY AS SUN...BUT THE MOST IMPACTFUL SPREAD OCCURS TUE
AND BEYOND.

SURFACE: A VERY WEAK CLIPPER WILL RACE TO THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. A TRAILING TROF WILL SLIDE THRU THE FCST AREA SAT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRES. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOMING STATIONARY...
REMAINING JUST N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE LEE TROF REINTENSIFIES
SUN WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVING SE DOWN THE FRONT MON. THIS IS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENCE SCENARIO FROM WHAT WE/VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. AN IMPORTANT QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS FRONT ONCE THE
LOW DIVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY? DOES IT REMAIN STATIONARY OR SINK
INTO THE FCST AREA? THIS CASTS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ON THE TEMP
FCST. THIS FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TUE.

HOW AND WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES REMAINS UP FOR GRABS? DOES IT
COME IN PIECEMEAL OR DOES IT SLAM THRU HERE IN A MASSIVE SURGE? THE
LATTER LOOKED MORE LIKELY EARLIER THIS WEEK. NOW IT/S LOOKING MORE
LIKE COMING IN PIECES.

HAZARDS: STILL NO ENTRIES YET FOR THE HAZARDS WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND
THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT ON IMPORTANT
DETAILS. ONE THING WE FEEL MODERATELY CONFIDENT OF /60 PERCENT/ IS
THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE WIND CONCERNS /ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ AND-OR G45+/ SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. WE JUST DONT
KNOW WHEN YET. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. MORE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE OPTION OF SOMETHING IN THE
1-4" RANGE. WE STILL ARE ONLY SEE A DEARTH OF MEMBERS OFFERING
SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL.

FCST CONFIDENCE: VERY HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THRU MON ON ALL SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS. CONFIDENCE
TURNS BELOW AVERAGE TUE-WED BUT TO DISPERSION IN THE MODELS.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING BUT CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT.

SAT: CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY VERY NICE WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND
LIGHT WINDS. WHILE NAM/GEM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE BEEN IN UNISON ON
A SUNNY DAY...THE EC HAS NOT COME AROUND UNTIL TODAY/S 12Z CYCLE. WE
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD AND WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING MID 50S
FROM LEXINGTON-BEAVER CITY-BELOIT KS.

SAT NIGHT: NOT SURE WHY MODELS ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. IT
LOOKS COLDER TO ME AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN CHILLED 2-4F FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST. WINDS TURN CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WERE
CUT EVEN HARDER AT ORD.

SUN: INCREASING CLOUDS AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN CLOUDY FOR
A TIME OVER S-CNTRL NEB. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE TEMPS
AND ADDS TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL STILL LOOKS GOOD.

WE STILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE OPTION FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHWRS SOMETIME BETWEEN 2 PM SUNDAY AND 7 PM MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW..."BEST" CHANCE EXPECTED N AND E OF THE
TRI-CITIES. WHILE THE PAST SEVERAL GFS AND EC RUNS HAVE NOT AGREED
ON THE LOCATION OR TIMING...THEY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TRACE UP TO
POSSIBLY SOME SPOT .02" AMOUNTS THOUGH THE 12Z GFS CAME IN WITH QPF
NO CLOSER THAN THE MO RIVER. AND WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC
HAVE RETREATED FURTHER N AND E...THEY BOTH STILL HAVE .01" OVER
SMALL PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB.

MON-THU: SOME IMPROVEMENT TO PARTLY SUNNY MON BUT THE OVERALL TREND
WILL BE FOR INCREASINGLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY FOR TUE-WED. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
FCST AREA UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS WHILE SO MUCH SPREAD
REMAINS AMONG THE MODELS AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES.

HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE.

THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS WED AND THIS IS WHAT WPC IS INDICATING AS WELL. THIS
OPENS THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS ARE THREATENING SERIOUS
MID-WINTER COLD. HIGH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE ON
THE TABLE BASED ON EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
SITUATIONS IN THE PAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER GRI DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 7KTS
TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 13KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT