Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 242035
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIRRUS HAVE BEEN THINNING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
WARM UP. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WARM ADVECTION...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

WE KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL
BE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET AHEAD OF A BROAD
TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME FOG. I INCREASED DEW POINTS FROM
NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S. THE SREF INDICATES A DECENT SHOT AT SOME FOG
WITH A LIKELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SEEMS MORE
FAVORED IN OUR WEST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I PUT FOG EVERYWHERE...SINCE
THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IN OUR EAST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
THOROUGHLY MIX THE FOG. I ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE HIGHER
CHANCE OF STRATUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A BIG CAVEAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AND
WILL THIS AFFECT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. I WENT A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THEM A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY ENTERS THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
WITH THE QUICKER SPEED OF THE WAVE...OUR CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT HIGH...AND IF WE DO GET RAIN...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT. I
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE.

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS ALL WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE GFS INDICATES THAT WE COULD GET A
QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT KICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FOR NOW...I
WILL KEEP THIS DRY AS THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE PASSING TO THE EAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND WILL GIVE US NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM...MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. I KICKED UP THE BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CIRRUS IS STARTING TO BREAK UP AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB



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