Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 132312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
612 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The cold front that moved through is now across east/southeast
Kansas. Tonight, as this front continues to track southeast and
the low level jet kicks into gear, showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected to develop. Currently expect the evening to be dry
and cloudy across much of the area, with the best chance for
showers and thunderstorms after midnight spreading from south to
north across the area. The shear is plentiful, but instability is
more of a question. Think there will be enough for at least some
thunderstorms, looks like largely 500-1000 j/kg, but some guidance
indicates upwards of 1000-1500 j/kg. If the instability is on the
higher side, some of the storms could be strong with some hail as
the primary threat. Fog is also possible across the area.
Currently have patchy to areas of fog in the forecast overnight
and early tomorrow.

The chances for rain will persist through much of the day
Saturday, especially across eastern portions of the area, but
ending by evening. Dropped highs down a few degrees tomorrow with
the cloud cover and rain. An upper disturbance approaches from
the west during the day and a strong cold front will move through
the region. The main concern with the front is the very strong
northwesterly winds behind it. Wind speeds of 30 to 35 mph and
gusts higher than 40 mph are expected during the late afternoon
and evening hours. It will not be pleasant with the cooler cloudy
day and strong winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

After this front on Saturday evening, surface high pressure moves
in and slides southeast of the area where it sits for a while.
The Central Plains will sit under northwesterly upper level flow,
but remain dry and mild with temperatures returning to the 70s for
the work week. Beyond this forecast, the extended models show a
deep trough diving into the west and approaching for next weekend,
which will bring the next best chance for precipitation as it
pulls another front through the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The clouds will continue to move into the terminal areas and are
expected to lower during the night. The visibility will also dip
down some during the night and into Saturday morning. The ceilings
will lift during the day on Saturday.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...JCB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.