Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 161950
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
250 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Main forecast issues include fire weather potential this afternoon,
Friday, and Sunday. Also looking at some fog potential Friday
morning, and Sunday morning. Also looking at thunderstorm potential
Wednesday night.

The overall synoptic pattern today reveals quasi-zonal flow as a
ridge begins to develop over the Rockies. Expect low relative
humidity in our west, but this will be a close call for getting
enough wind as a surface trough makes its way to the east. This may
be a case where the western part of the counties in the Red Flag
Warning will reach criteria while the eastern past of these counties
may not. A surface cold front will pass through tonight. Considering
height rises directly behind the cold front, I will likely increase
wind speeds a bit more directly behind the front. Latest SREF probs
indicate that most fog issues, if any, will occur southeast of the
CWA. Once the front goes through tonight, we should not have any
issues with good mixing, and the timing of the cold front will place
the front southeast of the CWA by 12Z Friday. A subtle wave is
picked up by numerical models tonight, but the best lift looks like
it will be north of us, near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, and I
am planning on keeping the forecast dry, and even to the north, this
looks like it would be more of a sprinkle, if anything. As the upper
ridge amplifies, our flow will turn more decisively northwest by
Friday afternoon/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Focusing on fog potential, there seems to be the most potential on
Sunday morning near a warm front that will be potentially bisecting
the CWA, and I may very well include some fog potential there.

By the weekend, probably Saturday night or so, the upper level ridge
will be on top of us, setting up another very warm day for Sunday as
flow turns more southwest, and warm front passes to the east.
CONSMOS suggests that highs will be well into the upper 70s
northeast to possibly mid 80s in our southwest, as 850 mb
temperatures may reach near 20C. Depending on how fast the warm
front moves east, it may not even be that windy, but dewpoints.
Relative humidity would put us near critical in our west/southwest
by Sunday afternoon, but wind will be more of the deciding factor.
This will need to be monitored as this time draws nearer.

Several numerical models, including the ECMWF and GFS, show a rather
potent shortwave trough moving through the central/southern plains
Wed. night/Thursday. The 00Z run of the ECMWF indicates that this
trough will be negatively tilted, but not in the GFS. There should
be enough instability to help initiate some thunderstorm activity. A
pretty good low-level jet develops Wednesday night over the plains
as well. We are far enough out that things can change significantly,
but at least there is the potential for at least some strong storms,
especially in Kansas in the mid to late week time frame next week. A
limiting factor would be how much moisture return we can get after
the expected cold front goes through earlier in the week on Sunday
night/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The biggest issues include potential for short term LLWS between
approximately 06Z and 09Z tonight, directly behind a surface cold
front as winds aloft could be near 40 KTS. Surface pressure rises
indicate that wind will be strong enough to keep this out of the
TAF, but still could be a close call. The second issue has already
been mentioned within the first, which would be some gusty winds
from the north directly behind the cold front moving through
tonight. This will decrease slightly toward 12Z but will pick up
again by around 15Z Friday as mixing ensues. VFR conditions are
forecast.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ060-072-082.

KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein



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