Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 310546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY


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