735
FXUS63 KGID 071146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most areas will remain storm free through the daytime hours
  today with a chance for severe weather returning this evening
  and continuing into the overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60 to
  70 MPH will be the greatest concern, although initial storms
  early in the evening could produce hail to the size of golf
  balls and even an isolated tornado.

- Heavy rainfall will accompany the storms tonight, with a quick
  1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible with the strongest storms.
  While localized flooding across areas with already saturated
  soils will be possible, widespread flooding is not expected to
  be an issue due to the progressive nature of the anticipated
  storms.

- Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with off an on again - mainly small - chances for
  storms continuing into next weekend. The next best shot for
  more widespread precip will be Thursday evening into Friday
  morning when a more pronounced upper level disturbance is
  forecast to cross the local area.

- Temperatures continue to look fairly typical through the
  period, fluctuating a few degrees either side of normal each
  day. Normal highs are generally in the upper 80s and normal
  lows are generally in the mid to upper 60s this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A line of weak showers and isolated thunderstorms developed
across mainly northern portions of the forecast overnight.
Models initially did not pick up on this activity, but the last
couple runs of the HRRR have partially captured it...and
subsequently quickly kill it off by daybreak. Given the
environment and only very subtle forcing and lack of a low level
jet, this seems reasonable, and expect a storm free start to
the day for the vast majority of the local area.

While there will be some clouds to start the day, mostly sunny
conditions should return by midday...as the next upper level
disturbance helps to enhance convection ongoing across
northeastern Wyoming as it rapidly propagates southeast through
the daytime hours. This complex of storms is expected to
organize as it tracks towards the local area, eventually posing
a severe weather threat later in the day. With steep lapse
rates, modest shear and plenty of CAPE, storms will initially
present both a wind and hail threat, which should transition to
mainly a wind threat as it crosses the local area later this
evening as a more organized area of storms. While heavy rainfall
will also be a possibility, the progressive nature of this
complex should limit flooding potential across the area.

Behind tonights complex of storms, mostly dry weather will
return for the middle of the week with modest ridging aloft
promoting warmer and dry conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. The upper ridge will then weaken late Wednesday,
allowing the return of additional thunderstorm chances through
the end of the forecast period. At this point, the next best
shot for more widespread thunderstorm activity looks to be
Thursday evening into Friday as a stronger upper level
disturbance coming from the west helps trigger another complex
of storms as it crosses the local area. Still a little early to
discuss severe potential for Thursday evening, but given the
available energy and forcing from the wave, would not be
surprised to see at least some stronger storms return to the
area Thursday evening.

Thereafter...continued weak westerly flow aloft should keep
temperatures near climo into next weekend with additional...
mainly small...off and on chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered mid level clouds with some very patchy ground fog
(MVFR VSBYS) in spots this morning. So far...any fog has eluded
the terminals and do not expect a significant reduction in
VSBYs at either terminal over the next hour or two. Mostly clear
skies along with light southeasterly breezes near 12 KTS
anticipated for the daytime hours, with increasing clouds/CIGs
by 08/00Z...with a cluster of storms rolling off the high plains
expected the terminals from around 08/01-08/06Z. Should see
gusty winds, MVFR CIGS/VSBYs with any storms that approach the
terminals tonight...with significant improvement anticipated aft
abt 08/08Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi