Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 171046
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AFTER THE PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATES...EXPECT A
MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING WEST...WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS.

LATER IN THE DAY AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST...EXPECT GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND MODEST O-6KM
SHEAR VALUES...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IN SPOTS ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STRONG STORMS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL AREA NOW IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON...WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY CLIMBING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
SATURDAYS VALUES. OVERALL...JUST FINE TUNED POPS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO REMAINING PARAMETERS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A FEW UPPER
LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ON MONDAY AN UPPER WAVE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE DAY A SURFACE
LOW AND FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN
TURNS MORE ZONAL AND WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MAIN PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ZONAL. WILL KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY AT THIS TIME AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
ABOUT 17/14Z...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. COULD SEE A TSRA AT EITHER
TERMINAL THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
STILL FAIRLY LOW...SO CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF A VCTS AND CB
AFT 18/03Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.