Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 140544
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1244 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS EXTENDED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/GULF COAST REGION...WHILE A
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US/CAN BORDER.
THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCE IN OUR AREA KEEPING THINGS
DRY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER AS A BATCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN MIDWEST REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DRAPED THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
THE RESULT...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AT TIMES PUSHING 30 MPH. 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DRY. WHILE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...FOCUS BEGINS TO TURN TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AS WE
GET THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS KEEP THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT STILL OFF TO THE N/NW AT THE END OF THE AFTERNOON...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THE GFS TRIES TO HINT AT THE START
OF SOME DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT
LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NEB/KS BORDER AREA.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...WONT BE SEEING AS CHILLY OF A NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN SPEEDS
BUT NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECTING ANOTHER
BUMP UP IN TEMPS IN HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...REACHING INTO THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...AN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
00Z TUESDAY. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-50% POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED TO OUR
EASTERN CWA WHERE OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER OVER OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE DOES THE SAME. WENT AHEAD AND LINGERED 20-30% POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A RESULT. AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA IS THEN EXPECTED TO PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN
PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST THE AXIS OF A 25-30KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...THUS PROMOTING ENOUGH THERMAL ADVECTION FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PRESENTING
20-30% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. ALLBLEND ALSO
PRESENTED 20-30% POPS TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT. THESE POPS...AS PRESENTED BY ALLBLEND...WERE
LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS A ~25 JET
STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...WITH ENOUGH THERMAL ADVECTION
CREEPING INTO OUR AREA TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING ~20% POPS TO
MUCH OF THE CWA. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE EC DOES NOT AGREE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ACTUALLY KEEPS US DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AXIS AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AND THE RESULTANT QPF FIELDS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS
DO SEEM SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. STILL...FELT IT BEST TO NOT COMPLETELY
DISREGARD THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND AS A RESULT...THE ~20% POPS AS
PRESENTED BY ALLBLEND WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST ONE OR TWO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVES COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH ENOUGH DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-50% POPS TO THE AREA AND THESE
POPS WERE ALSO LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST PARCELS
ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB WILL HAVE ~1500J/KG FOR UPDRAFT
PRODUCTION...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CIN. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS WILL BE IN
EXISTENCE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR HAIL PRODUCTION.
CONTEMPLATED GOING AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT ALSO APPRECIATE AND AGREE WITH THE "RAMP UP" APPROACH
REGARDING HAIL MENTION IN THE HWO AS PRESENTED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND BY GOING WITH NICKEL-SIZE
HAIL IN THE NEXT HWO ISSUANCE...WITH THE THINKING THAT SEVERE HAIL
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE MENTIONED SHOULD GUIDANCE REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT ~36 HOURS. BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT /
MONDAY MORNING...THERE REALLY IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STARTING IN
THE 60S ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING TO THE 70S AND 80S AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID MORNING. A FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TURNING THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST BY EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL LIKELY
CENTER AROUND CLOUD COVER FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER LATE IN
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...WESELY



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