Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 290524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT OF THIS SHIFT`S AFD.

BANDED MID-LVL CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS AND
WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT UNTIL BANDS OF -RA FORM.

TUE: WE KNOW FOR SURE THE MORNING WILL BE M/CLOUDY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
IMPROVEMENT THERE MAY BE IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FGEN FORCING
FADE...I HAVE TO BELIEVE SKIES WILL TURN P/CLOUDY. SO WE`LL
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT.

TONIGHT: ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WILL RESULT IN M/CLOUDY SKIES S OF HWY 6 AND P/CLOUDY TO THE N.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO
6-7K FT. SOME VFR SPRINKLES OR -RA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. E-ESE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE: VFR MID-LEVELS CEILINGS /AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA IN THE AREA/
WILL END BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

TUE EVE THRU 06Z: PROBABLY VFR CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT FROM
TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ON-GOING OVER NRN KS. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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