Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220512
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1112 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

This is a dry forecast. Main issue will be wind speeds decreasing
this evening and determining when wind comes back to the south on
the backside of the surface high. This will be a big influence on
our low temperatures tonight. If wind becomes calm near the time
we reach our lows, we could wind up busting some on our low
temperatures tonight, especially in relatively low-lying areas
like Ord. The center of the surface high is aiming just east of
our area as the high travels south, so it might not be long before
we start getting a south component, early Wednesday morning. Went
pretty close to CONSMOS numbers for temps and dewpoints for lows.

For Wednesday, with the help of some return flow, we should warm
up more than Tuesday, although mixing will likely only be up to
about 900 mb, so don`t expect any exceptionally warm temperatures
to say the least. Highs will probably only top out in the mid 40s
to mid 50s and I actually lowered them a tad from the previous
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Up front, this is a dry forecast. By Thursday, upper level ridging
will be well underway, making way for highs in the 60s for
Thursday. We could be pushing the record at Grand Island and
Hastings Thursday:

Record high temperatures November 23rd:
Grand Island:  66 degrees set in 2011, 2005
Hastings:      70 degrees set in 1923

Keep in mind, this would not be a record high for Thanksgiving, as
Thanksgiving falls on different dates. For Grand Island, the
warmest Thanksgiving high temperature is 71 degrees. Technically,
the predicted high temperature for Grand Island and Hastings on
November 23rd falls short of records by 2 degrees in Grand Island
and 7 degrees in Hastings.

By Friday, after a temporary flattening of the western United States
ridge from a passing shortwave trough across the northern Rockies,
the ridge should become more amplified by the weekend. A cold
front will kick up wind from the northwest and give us a strong
downslope effect, helping to boost high temperatures to the upper
60s for the tri-cities. Records for November 24th for Grand Island
and Hastings sit at 72 degrees:

 Record high temperature for November 24th:
Grand Island:  72 degrees set in 1990
Hastings:      72 degrees set in 1942

We should fall well short of these records, but if downslope is
strong enough, perhaps we could get a few more degrees warmer.

By Friday, in turn, the amplified ridge to the west will put us
within northwest flow and open our area to periodic low-amplitude
shortwave energy packets. This may mean brief cool-downs, but
moisture is quite limited, and probably will not allow much if any
precipitation to occur for the entire forecast.

The ridge will likely become more positively tilted as the axis
passes overhead sometime by late Sunday night. The ECMWF and
Canadian are noticeably more amplified than the GFS.

Upper level flow becomes noticeably amplified and progressive for
next week, bringing perhaps more significant waves across our area,
especially by Tuesday. One thing to note is that there are not any
substantial cold air outbreaks over the next week. Temperatures
should remain relatively mild.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Fay



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