Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261119
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KEAR.
EXPECT THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARD THE TERMINAL COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AS THEY DO.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



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