Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281745
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS...BUT A BIT BREEZY. STILL...CAN`T THE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE VERY WEAK COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU THIS MORNING WAS S AND E
OF THE FCST AREA. IT WILL NO EFFECT ON TEMPS. IN FACT...BASED ON
17Z OBS AND TRENDS...HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED 3-5F MOST AREAS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DWPTS WERE ALSO LOWERED INTO THE 46-52F RANGE
BASED ON 12Z LBF/OAX SOUNDINGS.

SMOKE PLUME: SATELLITE SHOWS A RIBBON OF SMOKE ALOFT ORIGINATING
FROM A FOREST FIRE OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN. IT CAN BE SEEN IN THE
ERN HORIZON AND IT WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON
SAT ANIMATION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOT MORE DIFFUSE SMOKE
OVER WRN CANADA. IT IS PROBABLE THAT SOME OF THIS WILL CONT TO
CIRCULATE DOWN INTO THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE THE COLORS OF SUNRISES/SUNSETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS AFTN`S DISC. PROBABLY ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AROUND 4 PM.

ALOFT: AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS IN
PLACE OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2 SD RIDGE/SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
THE W AND A -2 SD TROF/LOW OVER THE E. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNW-N
FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU 6 PM/MON. A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
MOVING THRU THE RIDGE OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SSE AND
MOVE THRU HERE TOMORROW WITH ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON OUR WX DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.

SURFACE: A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT HAS EXITED E AND S OF THE FCST
AREA. IT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON TEMPS. WEAK NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
WILL CONT S...SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE FCST...MOSTLY CLEAR THRU TOMORROW. JUST SOME
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF 20-25K FT CIRROSTRATUS DRIFTING THRU THAT
COULD TEMPORARILY TURN THE SKY P/CLOUDY. LIGHT WINDS AND
COMFORTABLE DWPTS/HUMIDITY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEWEST RUN OF MODELS
LOOKING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY...WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS
RIDGING REACHES NORTH INTO WRN CANADA...AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECTING THERE TO BE A
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST...
WITH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE...THOUGH A DISTURBANCE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY AROUND THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN
ACROSS THE AREA...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS...
WHICH RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW /AND IS BASICALLY ON ITS OWN
WITH THIS/ A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTH
GENERALLY ALONG THE MO RIVER AREA AND MOVING PRECIP THROUGH THE
ERN CWA. THERE IS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTH...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...UNTIL OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. AGREEMENT
IS BETTER WITH KEEPING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY.

AS WE GET INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ARISES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE PAC NW/WRN CANADA
REGIONS...THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WRN CONUS DEAMPLIFIES A
BIT...WITH THE MAIN AXIS SLIDING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TRANSITIONS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM NRN TO MORE
NWRLY...WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES SLIDING INTO THE AREA AND
BRINGING ALONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HARD TO GO MORE THAN 20-30
POPS AT THIS POINT...AS MODELS VARY FROM TO RUN TO RUN WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE DISTURBANCES. LOT OF THINGS TO IRON OUT
IN THE COMING DAYS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THOSE WITH 4TH OF JULY PLANS /THE VERY END OF
THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAYED UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH FEW-SCT PATCHES OF 20K FT CIRROSTRATUS.
NNW WINDS 10-15 KTS OCNL G20-25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH FEW-SCT PATCHES OF 20K FT CIRROSTRATUS. DAYTIME
GUSTINESS ENDS 00Z-02Z WITH NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH FEW-SCT PATCHES OF 20K FT CIRROSTRATUS. NW
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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