Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 181704
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1204 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Showers and mainly isolated thunderstorms continue to move through
the forecast area this morning.

The current showers and thunderstorms should continue to move to the
northeast and could exit the area in the next few hours. The HRRR and
RAP both continue to have some development in the area that is dry
at this time. There has been a little spotty activity trying to get
going on the southwest side of the current precipitation. The upper
level wave responsible for the precipitation is moving to the east
and expect that the showers and thunderstorms should move out of the
forecast area during the morning hours. There should be some
clearing behind the precipitation and skies should become mostly
sunny during the afternoon. The sunshine should allow for
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

For tonight, there should be dry conditions. Most of the models keep
precipitation moving to the east, but the GFS has another little
wave that develops a little precipitation. Have continued the dry
forecast and expect mild temperatures through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

There is a surface low developing on the high plains on Tuesday. The
pressure gradient tightens and the winds could get a little gusty in
the afternoon. The south winds and sunshine will combine to create
warm temperatures across the area. The concern with this will be
some lower relative humidities, especially in the southwest, and
expect there to be some near critical fire weather concerns.

The surface low and cold front will move through the area Tuesday
night. There is an upper level wave that moves through as well, but
the main energy is to the north of the forecast area and there
should be dry conditions across the area. A surface high slides into
the area on Wednesday and temperatures will cool back to near normal
values. By Wednesday night, the surface high is moving back to the
east and winds will turn back to the south.

Once again a surface low develops on the high plains during the day
Thursday. The pressure gradient tightens and winds will be gusty
during the afternoon again. Temperatures will be warm again. This
surface low is not as quick to move through the area. The south
winds continue across the area Thursday night into Friday. By
Friday, mainly in the afternoon, the first wave from a developing
upper level trough in the Rockies will move into the area and there
will be a chance for thunderstorms spreading across the area. Friday
night through Saturday night, the front moves through the forecast
area and the chances for thunderstorms increase. The front moves
through slowly, but the upper level trough is still to the west of
the forecast area and the chance for thunderstorms continue into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Stratus has held through the morning hours, which will gradually
erode during the afternoon. There is some potetential for the
development of fog tonight mainly for KGRI and locations to the
north and east, and have included a tempo group for a period of
reduced visibilities. Any fog which develops will quickly erode on
Tuesday as south winds increase and become gusty by midday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Fay


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