Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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640
FXUS63 KGID 170038
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
738 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST HERE MOMENTARILY FINE TUNE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEM
TO BE DIMINISHING...AND OPTED TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR
FOUR AFFECTED COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ALOFT: SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROFS WERE ORBITING A LARGE/SLOW-MOVING LOW
WAS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THE PRIMARY TROF OF INTEREST HERE WAS OVER
NM. THIS TROF WILL SWING NE AND CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT...
CLOSING OFF AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND TAKING OVER AS THE MAIN
CIRCULATION TOMORROW AS IT HEADS INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

SURFACE: TWO LEE-SIDE LOWS EXIST OVER WY AND CO. THE CO LOW WILL
EJECT NE ACROSS NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROF/JET STREAM...WITH A CONSOLIDATED SINGLE LOW OVER ERN SD BY
12Z/SUN. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. REMAIN WX-AWARE AND FOLLOW ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS ISSUED
FROM THIS OFFICE.

EXPECT SCT TSTMS AND LINES OF TSTMS WILL TRAVERSE ALL OR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA...EXITING TO THE N AND E BY OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BE ALERT FOR SEVERE TSTMS.

SUN: PROBABLY PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THEN DECREASING CLOUDS.
A SFC TROF IS FCST TO MOVE THRU AND WHILE DWPTS WILL BE DRYING
CONSIDERABLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-BASED TSTM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF DUE TO ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
OVERALL EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE
ACTIVE...SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW THAT WILL AFFECT US TONIGHT SHOULD BE OVER
EASTERN NDAK/NORTHWEST MN. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE LOW AND A PASSING SHOWER IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVERNIGHT BUT IF I DO ADD POPS THEY WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS SLATED TO DIG EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL IMPACT US BY MID WEEK. FROM MONDAY
INTO THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WE SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST LOW. AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE LOW...AND HIGHS COULD BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AS WE CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 30S FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST COAST LOW IS
PROGGED TO IMPACT US TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. SEVERE PARAMETERS DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIRMASS BUT COULD SEE
SOME THUNDER. THE MAIN LOW HANGS BACK AND AFTER A LULL
THURSDAY...MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. NO
WARMUP IS FORESEEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH WE COULD MAKE IT TO
NEAR 70 BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MODEL DATA
INDICATING THAT BOTH SITES SHOULD AT LEAST BE IN THE VICINITY OF A
TSRA BY 17/02Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS WITH VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS THROUGHOUT. THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS THE 00Z TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED AT SOME
POINT TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WITH AT LEAST NEAR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ROSSI



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