Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 030607
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
107 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A WELCOME
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AT
THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STILL BELOW AVERAGE...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WARMER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS CONTINUING TO SLIDE BASICALLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 00-12Z TONIGHT...KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE MAIN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
183...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOSE CHANCES
ARENT THAT GREAT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW
REMAINS DRY.

THE WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN...AND WEAKER WINDS...LOOKS TO REMAIN
THE STORY OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEED EVEN INTO TOMORROW...TOPPING OUT AROUND
10-15 MPH. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM PASSES...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW...WITH A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...THEN
CHANCES FOR TSTMS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OFF THE COAST IN THE PACIFIC AND TO THE EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A WARMER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE
70S...NEARING 80F BY FRIDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM CANADA AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONS ATTM AS WELL AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS. DETAILS OF THIS WILL
BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOK FOR RETURN OF SOME WET
WEATHER AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILING DURING THESE
FIRST 6 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF
THE TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MAINLY KEAR COULD CATCH
A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS LIGHT
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 25 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SO
WILL OMIT A FORMAL MENTION. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 12KT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST
12 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST" BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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