Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 252323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.