Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261715
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Satellite and observations indicate there is some cirrus moving
through the forecast area this morning. Surface analysis has a high
pressure system in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

The surface high pressure just to the east of the forecast area
early this morning will track to the east during the day. Winds will
become more southerly, but should remain mostly light. The high
pressure will keep skies mostly sunny and temperatures will warm to
around 90 or the lower 90s.

An upper level wave will be moving into the forecast area tonight.
Have pushed back thunderstorms until later this evening in the
northwest and then spread across the area overnight. The wave will
move through northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota during the
night. The MUCAPE this evening and overnight is 3000 to 3500 j/kg.
The best chances for thunderstorms will be in the north, during the
overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The main concern during the extended periods will be intermittent
chances for thunderstorms. The pattern aloft on Wednesday will
feature northwest flow across the Central Plains with a building
ridge axis across the southwest conus, while a series of shortwave
troughs translate southeast from Canada across the northern and
Central Plains. The timing of one of the waves which at one time
looked to impact our area Tuesday night is trending slower, with
timing trending more so toward Wednesday morning or the daytime
hours and if this holds, convection may be ongoing heading into the
day Wednesday.

The pattern aloft becomes more amplified during the latter part of
the workweek with a deepening trough from Manitoba/Ontario through
the upper midwest region toward the Ohio valley while the upper
ridge axis remains oriented in the desert southwest. Under more
influence of the upper trough, the airmass is progged to be
noticeably cooler with h85 temps in the mid teens or so, and to put
this in perspective, readings are progged about 15C cooler than
temps we experienced a week ago when highs were around 100 degrees.
Temps by the end of the week are trending closer to the 80 degree
mark for highs.

Timing of waves in the northwest flow pattern is difficult,
therefore at least some chance for a shower or thunderstorm exists
in the forecast for several days. Cannot rule out a strong to an
occasional severe storm at times in this pattern and will continue
to monitor the day to day timing/trends.

The upper trough begins to move out over the weekend bringing height
rises and a warming trend as well as drier conditions as the western
ridge migrates eastward onto the plains into the first part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast. While
there is a chance that some storms could develop and move eastward
into the area late tonight, confidence on how far east they will
actually get is low. Have left any mention of thunderstorms out of
the forecast for now, but if convective activity does develop and
maintain itself, then later forecasts would to add the potential
for thunderstorms. Overall southerly winds will be light with
mostly clear skies.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Billings Wright


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