Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 210040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING TO SETTLE IN OVER OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT GRI...JYR...AND AUH...WHICH
HAVE ALL GONE DOWN TO 1/4 SM IN THE LAST HOUR. FORECAST MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP...HRRR...AND SREF ARE ALL INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG FROM THE HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND AREAS
AND POINTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE. IT IS HARD TO SAY
HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH THE DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS
LESS MODEL SUPPORT FOR DENSE FOG AS YOU GET SOUTH AND WEST OF
HASTINGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE TO GO ANY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF PERSISTENT STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER FROM THE WEST THE STRATUS IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE. IN THE STRATUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...BUT AREAS WITH SUNSHINE HAVE WARMED MORE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN IS THE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 925MB HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE STRATUS THE BEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THE NORTHEAST REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS. IN THE SOUTHEAST THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE
EDGES OF THE STRATUS. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG SINCE VISIBILITY AT KJYR STILL HAS LOW VISIBILITY. ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE EAST IS THE BEST CHANCE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND THE FOG AND STRATUS
MAY FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AS A STRONG JET HEADS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH..FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO I AM NOT GOING ALL THAT HIGH WITH CHANCES HERE. A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK
SOMETHING UP IN THE EVENING...THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...BUT SMALL
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO BE VERY EXACT WITH TIMING.  KEEPING THIS
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS WITH THIS PERTURBATION. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH
EXACT TIMING.

FLOW IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE ROCKIES. A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE...BUT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WE COULD
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS...BUT AGAIN...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
GET A LOT OUT OF SNOW. WE SHOULD GET A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND THE WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...MAKING THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS POTENTIALLY BRISK AND
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE
FOG. IT IS A SURE BET THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG AT KGRI AS
IT IS ALREADY HAPPENING. MY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT THE FOG WILL
FLUCTUATE AT TIMES AT KGRI...BUT THAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT COULD BE
TOTALLY SOCKED IN UNDER THE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. KEAR MAY
VERY WELL STAY WEST OF THE FOG TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AT KEAR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE FOG SPREADING EAST INTO KEAR LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ039>041-047>049-
     062>064-075>077-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



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