Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
529 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next 24 hours is going to be a rather tough forecast due to the
ongoing convection to the south and other finer mesoscale features
that have yet to be realized. Main focus over the next 24 hours is
going to be development of thunderstorms and the severe potential
associated with these storms. The low-end severe threat and
flooding will be ongoing this morning across north central Kansas.

In the upper levels, we remain under southwesterly flow aloft, with
our main feature being a low-amplitude shortwave embedded in this
mean flow ejecting out over the Central Plains later today. The
timing of this shortwave does seem favorable for severe weather to
develop later this afternoon. At the surface, a low should develop
over eastern Colorado/western portions of the Central Plains later
today. There is a little uncertainty with the placement of this low
and could ultimately be a big game changer for our severe potential.
However, with the boundary in place later today and ample
instability ranging around 4000 J/kg of most unstable across a
majority of the forecast area. Bulk shear (0-6 km) values are around
40 knots. Low level shear is not all that impressive until later
tonight after 00Z, but with the boundary around during the afternoon
we will have that in place to make up for the lack of low level
environmental shear. Supercells will be possible within these
environmental conditions. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible along with isolated tornadoes, especially in the vicinity
of the boundary. The exact location of this severe potential is in
question until the finer mesoscale features become more clear across
the forecast area. Thunderstorms will likely continue overnight and
develop into a more complex MCS of storms and grow larger in overall
coverage. The MCS is more likely develop across northern parts of
the forecast area tonight, or in other words parts of
central/northern Nebraska. Thunderstorms appear to be on the trend
to develop early this afternoon, but confidence remains low for the
exact timing for the start of this event. Current thinking is the
boundary will line up in a north-south orientation through the heart
of the forecast area (along/near highway 281) and storms could start
to fire along this boundary early in the afternoon. Lots of
uncertainty but this is the best first guess until the boundary
lines up later today and that upper level shortwave ejects out into
the plains. Some of the higher resolution models like the NCEP 4 km
WRF-NMM has essentially nothing across our forecast area today,
which is a little disheartening given the 30-50 PoPs in the forecast
at this time indicating thunderstorms today/tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

To make a long story short, the upper level longwave mean trough in
the western United States will persist through the long term as a
stationary or nearly stationary boundary hangs around or near our
area. Abundant moisture will be available as most people can tell by
the dewpoints in the 60s recently, so this means several days of
potentially inclement and severe weather, along with near normal to
a bit above normal temperatures. Highs will generally be in the 70s
and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

This is a very difficult forecast. A lot of uncertainty will be in
place due to ongoing convection and finer mesoscale features that
have yet to be realized. That being said, KEAR will likely be
in between MVFR and IFR, and KGRI could very well be in the same
boat due to fog formation if wind speeds stay light. This is
going to be monitored over the next couple hours and an amendment
may be sent out to showcase the fog potential later this morning.
It will depend on the convection ongoing right now and how calm
the wind speeds will get. Low level moisture is there for fog but
the wind speeds may not stay calm enough. If skies remain clear
with light winds, fog will likely develop later this morning.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing later this afternoon but a
lot of uncertainty remains with those chances as well. It will
depend on where the boundary sets up later today. That being said,
there is a good chance for thunderstorms and severe weather later
today. Timing and coverage will be better depicted is subsequent
TAFs, but thunderstorms will likely begin to form later this
afternoon and create MVFR to possibly IFR conditions at the
terminals for at least a couple hours later today.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Guerrero
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Guerrero is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.