Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 300821
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
321 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. DURING THE MORNING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AND
THE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 27 TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 20 MPH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT
DROP ANY MORE.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
WITH A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS REGION...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
TROUGH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.  ON FRIDAY...A 1039MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HALLOWEEN IS LOOKING RATHER CHILLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
BY TRICK OR TREAT TIME...READINGS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE IN THE 30S.

THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING
SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG IN MT/WY.
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.  SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 60S.  THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THRU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT ZERO...IT IS ALSO NOT
ROBUST AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH WITH FROPA INTO MONDAY
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK WITH COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED MID
WEEK IN RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.  ALL IN
ALL...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT SCARY LOOKING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TEMPS WILL VARY IN WAA/CAA WITH PCPN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AROUND BUT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
TOWARD MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB



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