931
FXUS63 KGID 281116
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather expected across the area today with highs in the
  90s and heat index values around 100 degrees.

- Thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) during the late evening to overnight
  hours, most likely along and northwest of the Tri-Cities. A
  few of these storms could be strong-severe.

- Strong to severe storms possible on Sunday as storms develop
  along a cold front. Damaging wind gusts (60+mph) and large
  hail (quarter size) are possible with these storms.

- Cooler and drier weather on Monday.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 70s under
partly cloudy skies. A slowly decaying MCV is slowly moving east
across northwest Kansas, but any precipitation expected to
dissipate by the time it would reach Rooks/Phillips counties.
Aloft the area is under weak southwesterly flow. Skies will
clear this morning, resulting in mostly sunny skies for the late
morning-afternoon hours. Warm weather is expected today as
highs climb into the 90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
combined with warm temperatures will see heat index values top
out around 100 degrees today. Southerly winds gusting 15-20mph
will provide some but not much relief from the worst of the
heat, but those with outdoor activities today will want to stay
hydrated.

A cold front from an approaching shortwave trough will stretch from
the Nebraska Panhandle to western Minnesota late this afternoon.
Some convective development is possible along this front during the
late afternoon-evening hours. There remains a large spread in model
guidance for how widespread this development will be (scattered vs
isolated vs none). If storms do develop along this front in north
central Nebraska, they would enter northern portions of the forecast
area during the late evening hours, with a potential for damaging
wind gusts and large hail. Another area of storms will develop along
the dryline in western Nebraska during the late afternoon/evening
hours. These storms are expected to form into an MCS as they move
east. CAM guidance has poor agreement for how the MCS will evolve
over time. This MCS would likely not reach the area until the late
evening/overnight hours, encountering a more stable and weaker shear
environment as it moves east, which would support it weakening.
Still, this could hold together long enough to reach northwestern
portions of the area with a threat for damaging winds and large
hail. Thunderstorm chances will decrease during the early morning
hours on Saturday, though there remains a lot of uncertainty for how
many showers/storms there will be.

Sunday...

Sunday`s weather could be impacted by how tonight`s convection
evolves, mostly pertaining to the position of the cold front and any
remnant outflow boundaries on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will soar
into the 90s south of the front (most favored for north central
Kansas), with highs in the 80s north of the front. A very
unstable environment will be in place along the front as SBCAPE
climb to around 4000 J/Kg. This will support fairly rapid
thunderstorm development along the front during the afternoon
and evening hours. Shear will remain modest at 20-30kts, but
will still support the potential for damaging wind gusts
(60+mph) and large hail (quarter sized). Thunderstorms will
remain possible (25-60%) along and north of the front into the
overnight hours as it pushes south into central Kansas. PWAT
values of 1.75-2" could result in an area of locally heavy
rainfall where multiple storms track through.

Monday through Wednesday...

Any lingering rain will come to an end by sunrise on Monday, with a
cooler and drier day expected as troughing deepens over the upper
midwest, placing the area under northwesterly flow. Highs on Monday
will be in the 80s. A couple of shortwave troughs embedded within
this northwest flow will bring a couple of low (15-30%) chances for
showers/storms Tuesday night-Wednesday night. Highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Thursday onwards...

Ridging will build over the area on Thursday, shifting to the
Midwest on Friday, placing the area under southwesterly flow aloft.
Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday onwards as highs
climb into the 90s. A few disturbances are possible within this
southwesterly flow which brings additional chances for precipitation
to the area during the 4th of July weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. Southerly winds will
increase this morning with sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts
around 20kts. Winds will decrease after sunset, becoming light
and variable after midnight. FEW-SCT high clouds are possible
throughout the daytime hours. There is a low (20%) chance for a
thunderstorm after 06z though details and any potential impacts
are too uncertain to include a mention in the TAF at this time.
If confidence in thunderstorms increases or details become
clearer, a mention of storms may be needed.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis