Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 052324
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The main issue will be snow chances late Tuesday into Wednesday and
cold air for the rest of the week.

For tonight, we could get some sprinkles/flurries this evening with
the first cold front to move through. Cloud bases will be rather
high with generally large dew point depressions. Highs Tuesday
will struggle into the lower to mid 30s, with cold air advection
streaming on in as arctic air continues its grip.

I increased wind speeds tonight into tomorrow and went with CONSMOS
rather than Superblend, and I preferred the slightly cooler BCONSRAW
to superblend for highs Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The big issue for this forecast will be snow amounts late Tuesday
night into Wednesday and the arctic cold air on the way. Models are
consistent with cutting back on QPF for us with this next winter
system as the wave responsible for the snow is moving on through
with synoptic lift being aided by a rather strong jet streak.
However, the best lift looks like it will remain south and west of
our area and therefore not that favorable for large snow amounts.
The colder air will aid in increasing snow ratios to near 20 to 1 at
times, but with out the qpf, this will probably not add up to as
much as originally potentially anticipated. I went higher than
Superblend POPs in our southwest and went with 60 on Wednesday
morning, which is likely snow. There is just too much agreement
among numerical models to keep only chance POPs in our
south/southwest. Again, the wave moves rather quickly through
west/northwest flow, so not a lot of moisture/time to give us very
much snow, even though snow ratios will be relative high.

Although the first cold front introduces colder air, this will be
nothing compared to what is to come, with another push of arctic air
sending high temps into the freezer with highs struggling to reach
the lower 20s on Wednesday, and highs mainly in the teens on
Thursday.

Still looks like a modest warm-up by weekend, but still below
normal. Kept Saturday dry and Sunday mainly dry, except for a few
slight chance of light snow in our far south/southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A cold frontal will be at the terminal locations at the onset of
the taf period. Winds will shift northwest behind the boundary and
gusts around 25kts are expected into the first part of the night.
Mid level cloud cover will move out toward daybreak and wind
speeds will increase again Tuesday morning with gusts around 25kts
forecast through the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Fay



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