868
FXUS63 KGID 271731
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

That batch of cirrostratus on IR satellite has decreased and
thinned in the subsident NW flow. So sky cover was decreased from
p/cloudy to m/clear around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Aloft: The pattern was effectively blocked with a low over the
GtLakes and a high over the GtBasin. NW flow was overhead and with
little movement of these features...it will remain NW thru
tonight. A weak shortwave trof was dropping out of Sask into
MT/ND. It was producing some patchy cirrostratus. So clouds were
increased a bit thru dawn.

Surface: Deep low pres was over the GtLakes with high pres over
the Wrn USA. The low will begin to fill today. Frontogenesis will
occur late today over the Nrn Plains as a surge of cool air sinks
S on the backside of the low. This newly formed backdoor cool
front will move thru tonight with gentle CAA developing.

Today: Another very nice day. Any leftover cirrostratus patches
will depart to the S. Add a couple more degs onto yesterday`s
highs. 76-83F with coolest temps near Columbus and warmest Beaver
City-Phillipsburg-Plainville. About 80F in the Tri-Cities. NW
winds could occasionally G20 mph this afternoon.

Tonight: Clear and seasonable. Lows 44-52F from N-S. Light NW
winds become N.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Generally quiet and seasonable fall weather is anticipated across
the local area for the next several days.

Expect a ridge of high pressure to build across the center of the
country over the middle portion of the week as a strong low
pressure system deepens across the Ohio valley and an area of low
pressure spins off the Pacific northwest. For the local area...
expect the weaker area of low pressure across northern Mexico this
morning to eventually get absorbed into the longwave flow...
lifting northeastward across the Rockies and into the plains
toward the end of the upcoming weekend...bringing the first decent
chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity back to the
region late Sunday afternoon or Monday. Because instability over
this time period is very minimal...the chance for any severe or
even strong thunderstorms appears highly unlikely at this time.

In the meantime...expect mostly sunny skies and near seasonal
fall temperatures across the local area with generally gentle
winds...as there will be a fairly weak pressure gradient in place
across the region underneath the ridge of high pressure aloft. As
the flow turns more southerly late in the week...expect increasing
moisture to advect across the region from the southeast...which
will likely help overnight low temperatures remain in the 50s over
the upcoming weekend...versus the cooler 40s we have seen of late.
With the increasing surface moisture and some forcing from the
aforementioned low coming out of the southwest...felt comfortable
leaving the chance pops given by the blend of models for late in
the weekend and early next week...with minimal changes made to
inherited forecast this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions and light north winds through the period.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Eddy