000
FXUS63 KGID 071147
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
547 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY DETERMINING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. I
ACTUALLY TICKED UP HIGHS TODAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG UNTIL EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS WE COULD HAVE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY...BUT NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. SYNOPTIC LIFT IS WEAK AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
IS ABSENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE 06Z NAM JUST PULLED OUT THE RUG
FROM UNDER US AND LEFT US HIGH AND DRY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT...AFTER
BEING THE MOST PROMISING NUMERICAL MODEL FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS IS
LIKELY A RESULT OF THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...WITH DIVERGENT Q VECTORS BETWEEN 500 MB AND 300 MB CONFIRMING
THIS. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET TO THE NORTHEAST MAY WIND
UP BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TO BE OF MUCH
CONSEQUENCE...BUT I DID LEAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO WHERE THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
BETTER LIFT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL TOWARD EVENING
WHEN WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO GET SNOW...BUT STILL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
CONSEQUENCE...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...I FOLLOWED CLOSER TO BCCONSRAW AND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES I LIKE THE SREF DATA FROM ENSEMBLES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

PATTERN: A WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL DICTATE THE WX THRU THU
3/13. FOR SAT-TUE THIS PATTERN WILL BE LOW AMPLITUDE...BUT
THEREAFTER IN THE 5-10 DAY PERIOD IT WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.
THIS SUPPORTS CONTINUING DRY WX WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THERE
ARE SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EC/GFS ENSEMBLES OVER THE CNTRL
PACIFIC IN THE 10-15 DAY PERIOD /MAR 16-21/. IF THIS HOLDS IT WOULD
RESULT IN A WRN USA TROF AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST TSTMS OF THE SEASON
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS.

ALOFT: THE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH FRI`S WX WILL SAG THRU SAT FOLLOWED
BY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS SUN-MON. A
PACIFIC ORIGIN TROF WILL MOVE THRU TUE AND AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE
ERN USA...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY PUTTING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN NW FLOW.

SURFACE: NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL DROP S ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT. THAT PUTS US IN THE WARM SECTOR
AS A PAIR OF LOWS TRACKS ALONG THE US-CANADAIAN BORDER. A PREFRONTAL
TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
WED-THU AS A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN USA.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE DAY PROBABLY STARTS WITH SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUDS PER
MULTI-MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THAT LINGERS OVER N-CNTRL KS...BUT ANY
THREAT FOR ACCUM WILL BE OVER.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM HWY 281
E. OTHERWISE...THEY ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST...
EXCEPT OVER DAWSON COUNTY WHERE THEY WERE NUDGED INTO THE LOW 50S.

SUN-MON: LOOKING VERY VERY NICE WITH SUNDAY THE BREEZIER OF THE TWO
DAYS. THESE WILL BE THE BEST DAYS OUT OF THE NEXT 7. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE SUN AND CONTINUING
INTO MON. NONETHELESS...WE ARE EXPECTING MON TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR THIS YEAR. BELIEVE IT OR NOT WE ACTUALLY HAVE TO MAKE IT PAST
THE HIGHS OF JAN 19TH. IT/S DOABLE. HIGHS WERE RAISED 3-4F ABOVE
GUIDANCE.

AS FORECASTERS WE USUALLY ARE NOT WARM ENOUGH IN THESE SITUATIONS.
DONT BE SURPRISED IF THE FCST ENDS UP WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING. THAT BEING SAID WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF CIRROSTRATUS. I AM CERTAIN WE ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE TRENDED IT UPWARD.

FIRE WX: WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEWPOINTS SUN. BREEZY SW WINDS
COULD TRANSPORT DRIER DEWPOINTS THAN NOW FCST INTO THE AREA. THAT
WOULD RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FCST DEWPOINTS WERE
TRENDED DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND THE 00Z MOSGUIDE.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ROUGHLY 12AM-12PM TUE.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TUE. WE ARE SURE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
TROF MOVING THRU. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT PART OF THE
TROF WILL TRY TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW FROM A TIME...PROBABLY
IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS. THE GEM/GFS/EC ALL HANDLE THIS AND THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIFFERENTLY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC ARE THE
DEEPEST WITH NEUTRAL TILT WHILE THE GFS/EC HAVE A BROADER POSITIVE
TILT TROF.

TUE: FOR NOW SUFFICE TO SAY WINDY AND COOLER. WINDY ESPECIALLY IF
THE EC IS RIGHT WITH ITS 993 MB LOW HEADING OUT OF TX INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THE 12Z/6 EC IS ACTUALLY DEEPER WITH A 988 LOW BY THE TIME
IT GETS TO TN.

FOR CONTINUED MENTION OF A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW PATTERN IF PRECIP OCCURS AT ALL IT WILL BE LIGHT/
MINOR. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ONLY HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE FOR 0.10" FROM
12Z/TUE-12Z/WED. THE EC ENSEMBLES HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE FOR .10" AND
A 10% CHANCE FOR .25". WE COULD SEE SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL IF THE EC IS CORRECT.

TEMPS TUE-WED WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...BUT JUST BACK TO NORMAL
/45-50F/.

THU: HIGH PRES DRIFTS S PUTTING THE FCST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS A LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA. SO TEMPS WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE IFR RANGE IS AROUND AS
A QUICK SNOW BAND COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN